Episode summary
Logan Mohtashami on Trump’s home price remarks and Kevin Warsh
HousingWire Daily
· · 16 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that President Trump’s comments about wanting to keep home prices high for existing owners do not change the housing market’s basic math. He said national home prices only fall when the housing credit market deteriorates, with foreclosures, underwater borrowers, and distressed sales driving inventory higher; otherwise, prices and sales are governed by supply and demand. In his view, the recent pickup in housing demand shows the market is already adjusting without a dramatic affordability breakdown.
He also pushed back on the idea that presidents or policymakers can simply “fix” housing affordability by forcing prices lower or inventing new financing tricks. Mohtashami said the real response is to let the market work through higher rates over time, with wages and inventory trends gradually improving affordability. He pointed to mid-June as the turning point when demand improved and inventory growth slowed.
On Kevin Warsh’s expected Fed chairmanship, Mohtashami said the market reaction in the 10-year yield and mortgage rates has been limited so far, with yields still hovering around 4.25%. He argued that softer labor data, not headlines, remains the more important driver of rates, and that the broader message is one of relative stability rather than major volatility.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said home prices do not fall nationally unless the housing credit market breaks down with distress sales and rising inventory.
- He argued that Trump’s remarks on keeping home prices high do not override supply-and-demand fundamentals.
- Mohtashami said housing demand has improved since mid-June, which he sees as evidence that affordability has gotten somewhat better.
- He said the 10-year yield has stayed near 4.25% after Kevin Warsh’s naming, suggesting the market is still in a range.
- He считает softer labor data and slower job growth more important for mortgage rates than political headlines or Fed chair speculation.
Notable quotes
“the only thing that drove national nominal home prices to fall was a completely deterioration of the housing credit market”
“the market doesn't give a bleep what the president says”
“Supply and demand equilibrium from housing from those that read”
“what happened from then that was the bottom of home sales the growth rate of inventory slowed home sales rise supply and demand equal”
“Not much is happening”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about President Trump's remarks on home prices and what happened to the 10-year yield after Kevin Worsh was named the next Fed chair. First, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast. You know I a after every week every Friday this year I always say what a week and then last week I said what a week I said I say this every week every week of the year and you know we went into this with X variables and all these things that and it hasn't disappointed
It has not disappointed so of course last Thursday um Trump said hey I am going to announce the u the new next Fed chair and then on Friday morning, which we're doing this on Friday afternoon. He announced Kevin Worsh. So, we did a special episode on that, and we'll get to some more Kevin Worsh things.
But first, I wanted to talk about um uh some remarks that President Trump made on Thursday where he was talking about home prices. And I think he's trying to thread the needle there of like, you know, how do you how do you make things more affordable without crashing home values, right? Right.
So, he was talking about home prices and he said, "We want to keep home prices high for people who are already own homes. Um, and you know, it was kind of a confusing message, but I do think that the nuance for people in housing is that like affordability is a two-edged sword in some ways, right? If you bring down the the the equity people have in the homes, that's not the best maybe way to do affordability.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- home price remarks
- trump
- federal reserve chair nomination
- kevin warsh
- market reaction
Watch the episode
Watch “Logan Mohtashami on Trump’s home price remarks and Kevin Warsh” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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