Episode summary
Mike Simonsen on where he’s seeing traction for the spring housing market
HousingWire Daily
· · 21 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Mike Simonsen
Summary
Mike Simonsen said the spring housing market is showing more traction than last year, with sales running about 5% above last year’s pace, inventory growth slowing, and some markets like Florida already showing fewer homes on the market than a year ago. He emphasized that the biggest signal he is watching is the wave of relisted homes: about 80,000 single-family homes have come back on the market after being withdrawn last fall, suggesting sellers are testing improved conditions.
He argued that the key question is whether those relists convert into weekly pending sales without requiring heavy price cuts. So far, the data is improving modestly: price-cut percentages have ticked down, and asking prices are 1.6% below last year on a per-square-foot basis. Simonsen said that points to some buyer response, not a boom, but enough to suggest a better spring than many expected.
He also described a split market. Ultra-luxury homes at $10 million and up grew 22% last year, with San Diego and Palm Beach County standing out, while Austin and much of Texas still lag. He said tighter inventory persists in places like Connecticut and Chicago, and that a pickup in hiring would be an important bullish sign for later in the year.
Key takeaways
- Mike Simonsen said sales are running about 5% above last year, while inventory growth is slowing and Florida now has fewer homes on the market than a year ago.
- He said the most important spring indicator is the relist cohort, with about 80,000 single-family homes returned to the market after being withdrawn last fall.
- Simonsen said fewer homes are taking price cuts now than last year, which he sees as a modest sign of firmer demand rather than a full market surge.
- He said the $10 million-and-up segment grew 22% last year, with San Diego and Palm Beach County among the stronger ultra-luxury markets.
- He said Austin and much of Texas are still lagging, while tighter inventory remains a feature of Connecticut and Chicago.
- He said a faster hires rate would be a bullish sign for home sales later in the year, especially in the Sun Belt.
Notable quotes
“there are 80,000 single family homes right now that are on the market now that have been relisted from last fall”
“if the real lists improve and the weekly pending sales also improves that means that that these are folks who are uh finding demand for for the homes”
“the price cuts number. It ticked down again this week. There are fewer price cuts on the market now than last year at this time”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is Mike Simson, chief economist at Compass to talk about the housing markets that might see the most traction this spring. Mike will be one of our featured speakers at the housing economic summit on February 10th and we are looking so forward to that. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Mike, welcome back to the podcast.
Sarah, it's always great to be here.
It is great to have you here and we have such a a fun thing to talk about. So, you know, as we're heading into the spring home buying market, it's fun to see some stabilization, some things happening and I would love to get your view on like what is the overall picture there. So, you know, in the overall market, the data right now is showing sales growth about 5% more sales happening each week than last year at this time.
Um, inventory I know as you discussed with Logan has been the growth rate is compressing and one thing you may not have known is that in a place a place like Florida, inventory is actually negative compared to last year. fewer homes on the market in Florida now than last year at this time. So, um that's not true across the country yet.
Florida's leading there, but it's a fascinating trend. It's the first time in a long time to be able to say that about about uh Florida. And so, sales are up.
Um inventory is the growth rate of inventory is is contracting a little bit. Um, you know, the big the big I think number that I've been watching and the the trend for the spring market that I'm interested in is the relists.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spring housing market
- housing market outlook
- regional housing traction
- home sales demand
- mortgage and real estate trends
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Compass
Watch the episode
Watch “Mike Simonsen on where he’s seeing traction for the spring housing market” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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