Episode summary
The direction of home prices and the Fed’s civil war
HousingWire Daily
· · 21 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that national home prices are no longer in a bubble-burst dynamic, but in a period of normalization that looks more like the late 1970s and early 1980s than 2008. He said 2024 and 2025 price gains were weak, and that 2026 is likely to stay subdued, which he sees as healthy because wage growth can slowly restore affordability without a crash. He pointed to history to argue that many housing markets spend long stretches with little nominal price movement, and that the big national collapse people expect has not appeared because inventory is not exploding and sales are not imploding.
He also said the strongest and weakest markets are now diverging more by region. The Northeast remains “savagely unhealthy” because too many buyers are chasing too few homes, while Texas, Florida, Arizona and parts of Colorado have moved closer to a healthier balance as inventory improved. Nationally, he said monthly supply above 4 months is closer to fair-market conditions, even if it is not yet fully normal.
On the Fed, Logan said the recent run of hawkish speeches shows a widening split inside the central bank, and he thinks the hawks have the edge as long as the Middle East conflict and oil shock continue. He said there should be no rate cuts while the war continues, and that any eventual easing would depend on oil flows stabilizing and inflation pressures fading.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said 2026 home price growth should stay weak and that flat-to-low growth is healthier than a crash for affordability.
- Logan argued the current housing setup resembles the late 1970s and early 1980s more than the 2008 credit bust.
- Logan said the Northeast is still structurally tight, while Texas, Florida, Arizona and parts of Colorado have moved closer to balance.
- Logan said the Fed’s hawks are gaining ground and no rate cuts should happen while the war and oil shock continue.
- Logan said monthly supply above 4 months is moving housing toward a more normal buyers-and-sellers market.
Notable quotes
“what's happening right now, what's happened last year and what happened in 2024 is very healthy for housing”
“As long as wages are outstripping home price growth, that's the way because we don't have a lot of history of nominal”
“I think you're going to starting to build a coalition of more hawks than what Warsh or or Christopher Waller or any or Michelle Bowman and and them can can handle”
“There's no rate cuts as long as this war goes on”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about home prices and what is happening at the Fed, especially as the war continues. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor Total Expert for making this episode possible.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast. We're all back We're back in our home offices. Back in the home office.
Of course, I'm I'm leaving to Utah and then Memphis. And then we're going to be in San Diego. And then also uh I'll be going to Miami.
So, I've got a lot more traveling left, but we are home. Home is where the heart is and it's Friday morning and we've got a lot of stuff, Fred Civil War, Trump tariffs, oil. Uh but first we're going to talk about home prices.
Let's talk about home prices. So, it is now May, May 1st. So, where are home prices and and where are we for the spring?
So, the reason I'm bringing this up is cuz there was a big X account that talked about well the housing bubble now is a lot bigger than the housing bubble, you know, back then. And I don't think he was intentionally trying to say anything. I just thought I don't think he's a housing person, so he just made that up the curve.
And and then I showed what I always though the the the all the data from 1943 to you know, 2025 and I said people forget about the housing bubble of 1943 to 1947. Why is there no love for that? And one of the reasons why I would say that we we want to be a society that read books instead of burning them.
And when I put that data up all the time, there's people like, "Oh my god, I have never seen this.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- home price direction
- case shiller
- fed division
- interest rates
- housing market growth
Watch the episode
Watch “The direction of home prices and the Fed’s civil war” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from HousingWire Daily
-
The headlines impacting mortgage rates -
Has housing demand already changed with lower rates? -
How midterms and jobs week will affect rates -
Preparing for Q1 growth in reverse mortgages -
A clear pathway to sub-7% mortgage rates for Thanksgiving? -
Mortgage rates, inflation and those homeowner vacancy numbers
HousingWire Daily, this episode and its artwork belong to HousingWire. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
