Episode summary
The most important housing data for 2026
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argues that the HousingWire tracker matters in 2026 because the housing market is no longer in the extreme, one-directional conditions of 2020 through 2022. He says the key shift is that inventory shortages are easing, mortgage rates are lower than the 7% area, and buyers and sellers are now in a real tug-of-war rather than a market dominated by sellers. That makes the tracker useful as a weekly read on how active inventory, new listings, price cuts, mortgage rates, and the 10-year yield interact.
He says the tracker has repeatedly identified turning points before the lagging national reports showed them, including the sales collapse in late 2022, the rate-driven shift in 2024, and the inventory improvement he saw early in 2025. For 2026, he expects mortgage spreads to normalize and says that could mean 20 to 40 basis points lower spreads. He also expects price-cut percentages to matter more as a slope-of-the-curve signal, especially if rates or new listings move sharply.
On purchase applications, Logan says the data needs context after the distortions of the post-COVID era. He wants to see 12 to 14 weeks of positive week-over-week trends before treating a move as meaningful, and he says early-year data should help show how the rest of 2026 is likely to unfold.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says 2026 housing is a tug-of-war market, not a shortage market, because inventory is improving and buyers have more leverage.
- He expects mortgage spreads to return to normal in 2026, which he says could mean 20 to 40 basis points lower spreads.
- He says price-cut percentages should be read as a slope-of-the-curve signal, especially if rates jump or new listings weaken.
- Mohtashami says purchase application data needs 12 to 14 weeks of positive week-over-week gains before it should be treated as a real trend.
- He argues the tracker is most valuable because it combines inventory, rates, demand, and credit into one weekly read before lagging reports catch up.
Notable quotes
“Now you don't have the inventory shortage anymore or anything. You have a product out there that is still expensive in historical terms, but now you have lower rates, right”
“we need 12 to 14 weeks of positive week toe data to make it something legit we get to start all over again in 2026 and we go with it”
“The the price cut percentage I always we we're big slope of the curve people. Like that's that's how we look at economics”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about the housing market tracker and the data that he thinks is going to be the most important as we go into 2026. Can't wait to get started. First, I want to thank our sponsor Trust and Will for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
Is it happy day? I cannot believe you say before we got on you were making fun of my sweater color because you said it was Barney's purple. This is pink. What? — That's pink, man. Okay, it's definitely you say so.
Um, okay. So, today's topic, one of our favorites, which is the housing market tracker. You know, we've been offline for a couple of weeks just because, you know, you don't feel like that data towards the end of the year is really um worth reporting on.
It just kind of uh screws everything up. So you took a pause there, but it's coming back and we are now at the third anniversary of you doing this tracker every single week um with really fresh data. So tell us what we should look for in 2026.
You know, the one thing about the tracker, I mean, I I I preferably would like to start the second week of the year, you know, take that data line, but you know, this we we'll bring it back up again. But what has the tracker done over the last 3 years since we've incorporated? It has told you when markets are shifting, right?
And I think I think it it the the crazy part is that the craziest period ever in history for housing was the end of 2022 going into 2023, right? And I'm sitting there thinking, I'm off the tracker.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing data
- mortgage rates
- housing market
- housing indicators
- 2026 housing outlook
Watch the episode
Watch “The most important housing data for 2026” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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