Episode summary
Jobs week, mortgage rates and the Fed
HousingWire Daily
· · 15 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami said the day’s jobs data was mixed for mortgage rates: the ADP report was a slight miss and pushed bond yields down a bit, but the job openings data surprised to the downside in the headline while its internals sent a more complicated signal. He argued that the Fed cares less about the headline than about measures like quits, firings, and jobless claims, and that those internals have not yet shown the kind of labor-market break that would force the Fed into faster cuts.
He said the market is still in a low-hiring, low-firing environment, which helps explain why rates have not moved much even with weak-looking labor prints. Mohtashami added that mortgage spreads have largely normalized and volatility has compressed, so the bigger question is whether labor conditions deteriorate enough to challenge the Fed’s restrictive stance in 2026.
Mohtashami also discussed oil and inflation, saying prices look like they may be bottoming and that even the Venezuela military action is unlikely to create an immediate inflation shock. He tied his broader housing outlook to Fed policy, saying the biggest X factor for 2026 remains Trump administration actions around housing and the Fed, especially if leadership changes alter the balance inside the central bank.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said the ADP miss and weaker job openings data nudged yields lower, but not enough to meaningfully change mortgage rates.
- He argued the Fed is watching quits, firings, and jobless claims more than the headline jobs numbers.
- Mohtashami said labor data still reflects a low-hiring, low-firing cycle rather than a recession-style layoff wave.
- He said oil prices may be bottoming, which limits the near-term inflation impact of the Venezuela situation.
- Mohtashami said the biggest 2026 X factor is Trump policy and any changes to the Fed leadership or governor lineup.
Notable quotes
“the Federal Reserve likes the quits rate. You know, people quitting their jobs to go to higher paying jobs”
“we're still heading toward neutral policy and this is kind of why the hoardor line was created at 380 on the 10-year yield”
“This is not just population growth, okay? This is demand”
“prices to me look like they're kind of bottoming out”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about jobs week and how that data is affecting mortgage rates. Before we get started, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. I'm in Salt Lake City. In about a few hours after this podcast comes out, Mitt Romney and I will be on stage. you know, talking about housing. So, I finally have some hair competition, you know, and uh uh we'll see who wins that one.
I am also in Salt Lake City. Same event. I'm going to be on that stage with you and Mitt Romney. Cannot wait for that discussion. It's going to be great. And I agree like the whole Romney family. You have some hair competition in this family.
Yeah, we'll talk about the chart daddy doctrine and the other doctrines. — We are not. No, not with Mitt Romney. Okay, let's dive into today because we had some jobs uh reports today. What did those things do to mortgage rates? What do you think?
You know, it it it was a very interesting day in the reaction to the jobs report. We had the ADP report and the AD ADP report usually isn't the most valuable, but you know, because it's gone weekly and this is the monthly report. It came down, you know, as as a as a slight miss, still uh positive.
Bond yields ticked down just a little bit, but then the job openings data came out. I mean, the job openings data is the Fed's kind of favorite, you know, uh, uh, outside of the BLS report. And it was a huge miss on the job openings.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- jobs report
- mortgage rates
- fed
- interest rate outlook
- housing market
Companies and tickers mentioned
- HousingWire
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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