Episode summary
What to look for in the jobs week data
HousingWire Daily
· · 17 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami said the main market question this week is not geopolitics but how the bond market reacts to jobs data. He argued that recent military and geopolitical events have not moved mortgage rates much, while labor data remains the key driver for the 10-year yield and, in turn, mortgage rates.
He revisited last year’s debate over whether rates would stay high, saying the labor market softened enough to validate the “labor over inflation” view. Even so, he said the 10-year yield has stopped breaking lower because Fed policy is now closer to neutral, so there is less room for mortgage rates to fall sharply just from softer growth.
Looking ahead, Logan said the big variables are job growth, unemployment, and jobless claims, especially as the government shutdown fades from the data. He expects the first half of 2026 to offer cleaner labor readings, and he wants to see whether rising unemployment is being driven by labor-force growth.
He also said mortgage spreads are the key 2026 improvement story. With spreads near 2%, he thinks mortgage rates can grind lower toward a more normal range, but not collapse unless the labor market weakens much more or the Fed turns materially more dovish.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said jobs data, not geopolitics, is the main input for mortgage rates this week and into 2026.
- He argued last year’s labor slowdown supported the “labor over inflation” trade, but the 10-year yield now looks anchored near neutral.
- He said mortgage spreads improved to about 2%, leaving roughly 20 to 40 basis points of further normalization.
- Mohtashami said mortgage rates are unlikely to break much below 5.75% without normal spreads or a more dovish Fed.
- He is watching whether jobless claims and unemployment rise enough to force the Fed to admit the labor market is weakening.
Notable quotes
“the bond market, mortgage rates, and jobs data, which we're going to get a lot of this week”
“what worked is that the labor data started to get softer”
“Jobless claims is still the key thing to everything”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about the bond market, mortgage rates, and jobs data, which we're going to get a lot of this week. Before we jump in, I want to say thank you to our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
2026, brand new year. boy, when we thought there'd be is there going to be less drama in 2017, the first weekend was like, "Holy Toledo, we did Jack Powerard, you know, get in there, you know, get get uh General out and bring him, you know, it's kind of reminded me of the Batman movie where they went and got that guy from the from the tower. But yeah, you know, it's nothing's ever normal, Sarah.
Postcoid everything every year is wild. So, we started this year off with a bang. You know what?
I that is a great thing. Nothing is ever normal. I know I called you several times this week and I was like, "Okay, wait, what about this?
So, um, for our listeners who don't know, I write a newsletter three times a week for our subscribers and I'm often calling Logan and and getting his latest on like, okay, what happened? So, yesterday I called you. I was like, I'm going to send out something to our subscribers talking about what they should expect with u mortgage rates.
You know, was this going to was this military action going to cause something in the bond market? So, they got that early. And what did you say, Logan?
Yan. Nothing. Nothing. You know, and you know, it's interesting. Uh, we kind of talked about this like like 10 days ago or something where you said, "What if we go into Venezuela?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rates
- jobs week data
- labor market
- housing market
Watch the episode
Watch “What to look for in the jobs week data” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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