Episode summary
Revisiting the mortgage rate lockdown, now with more data
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argues that the so-called mortgage rate lockdown was always overstated and that the new three-year data set confirms it. His core point is that most homeowners are also buyers, so when they sell a home with a low rate, they often turn around and buy another one even if the new mortgage rate is higher. He says the data from 2022 through 2025 shows that people with sub-3%, 3% to 4%, 4% to 5%, and 5% to 6% mortgages all declined as a share of borrowers, while the 6%+ group rose, which he says is consistent with normal turnover rather than a frozen market.
The host pushes back that mortgage rates still clearly affect demand and that the 2022 surge in rates helped drive a huge drop in home sales. Logan agrees rates matter, but says affordability is broader than the rate alone because prices, taxes, insurance, and loan balances all moved higher. He argues that if a true golden handcuff existed, existing-home sales would be far lower than the roughly 5 million range seen in recent years.
He also ties the housing outlook to the 10-year yield, Fed policy, and labor data, saying the bond market and the Fed remain central to where mortgage rates go next. For 2026, he sees a stabilized market and thinks a few hundred thousand more sales are possible if rates cooperate.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says the mortgage rate lockdown was a marketing gimmick, not a structural barrier, because most sellers are also buyers.
- He says 21.2% of mortgage holders now have rates at 6% and above, while the share with sub-3% mortgages has fallen from the 30s to about 20%.
- Mohtashami argues affordability is driven by total housing cost, not just rate lock-in, and that qualified mortgage rules changed buying behavior.
- The host says rate increases still reduced demand materially, especially after 2022, even if some homeowners kept buying.
- Mohtashami expects a stabilized 2026 housing market, with a few hundred thousand more sales possible if rates ease further.
Notable quotes
“the dissertation of the mortgage rate lockdown is finally complete. I have three years worth of data to prove my purpose”
“Supply is a function of demand in housing. Most home sellers are buyers”
“the mortgage rate lockdown sounded great, but like a lot of things in housing economics, it was a marketing gimmick”
“The affordability changes, right? People's wages, incomes, financial assets, those things are all variables in the housing economics”
“if there was really a gold to handcuff rule, boy, home sales would be so much lower”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about the mortgage rate lockdown and new data that he thinks supports his position that there was never a mortgage rate lockdown. Uh I have a different opinion on that.
We'll we'll get into it. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast on a topic that you and I have had a lot of discussion on, even a debate on.
D
The dissertation of the mortgage rate lockdown is finally complete. I have three years worth of data to prove my purpose. Now, Sarah, you did not know me.
It's a shame you did not know me back in the last decade. You probably would have given me an award in 2014 instead of kicking me out of that competition. But in the last decade, I had two things.
I actually I had a lot of things that I was fighting against. But in for this conversation, um the whole theory that there's no homes to buy, that the demand curve is weak because there's no homes for people to buy, that it was completely false. Now, I understand why people said that because inventory was slowly moving lower and lower, except mortgage demand was slowly rising higher and higher.
And then all of a sudden, I can prove my premise with the hundred-year theory. We had 2020, 2021, and early 2022. Existing home sales basically broke out once we got out of that COVID uh delay, but active inventory was very low.
Right? So, for the people that said there's no homes to buy, I have 2 million homes more bought and sold with the lowest inventory ever.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rate lockdown
- mortgage rates
- housing market
- homebuyers behavior
- mortgage data
Watch the episode
Watch “Revisiting the mortgage rate lockdown, now with more data” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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