Episode summary
Powell’s last Fed meeting as Fed chair
HousingWire Daily
· · 14 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Purchase applications rose 2% week to week and 21% year over year, but Logan Mohtashami said the year-over-year gain is flattered by very low comps. He argued that if mortgage rates had simply held near 6% and not been hit by shocks like the storm and war headlines, the market would have seen a lot more home sales. The larger housing story, in his view, is still Fed policy and mortgage spreads, not just the latest inflation print.
Mohtashami said oil’s jump has helped push the 10-year yield higher, but not by the same magnitude, because bond yields are driven mostly by Fed policy. He said Powell’s last Fed meeting as chair mattered because the Fed could have signaled a hike, especially with PCE, PPI and oil all moving up, but instead held steady. The meeting also featured four dissents, which he described as unusual and a sign of a deep split inside the Fed.
He said the next chair, Kevin Warsh, would face a genuinely divided committee and a more difficult policy fight, especially if tariff-related inflation turns into demand inflation. For housing, Mohtashami’s bottom line was that improved mortgage spreads have kept rates lower than they otherwise would have been, and that should be viewed as a defensive win rather than a sign of easy conditions.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said purchase applications were up 2% week to week and 21% year over year, but the annual gain is inflated by weak comparisons.
- Mohtashami argued that Fed policy, not oil alone, drives most of the 10-year yield and mortgage-rate direction.
- He said Powell’s meeting was notable for four dissents, which he views as evidence of an unusually fractured Fed.
- Mohtashami warned that if tariff-related inflation becomes demand inflation, the Fed’s wait-and-see stance becomes harder to defend.
- He said mortgage-spread improvement has kept 2026 mortgage rates lower than they otherwise would have been.
- Mohtashami expects Kevin Warsh would inherit a committee with more hawkish resistance than a normal chair typically faces.
Notable quotes
“purchase application data came out. 2% week-to-week growth, 21% year-over-year growth”
“the big news is Powell staying, you know, and it it's all about the court case”
“we had four dissents. That's very, very abnormal”
“Think of mortgage spread, man. I'm telling you literally the entire housing data lines would not look the same if mortgage spreads did not improve”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about Powell's last Fed meeting, purchase apps, and oil prices. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor Total Expert for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
What a day, what a day, what a day. We're in Austin, Texas. Um have our third day of the gathering.
We did a presentation today. And um before all the fireworks started, purchase application data came out. 2% week-to-week growth, 21% year-over-year growth.
Be mindful that we have very, very low comps, so that 21% needs uh uh uh some uh adjustment to that. But however, if rates had just stayed at 6%, no snow storm, no war, no We would have had a couple hundred thousand home sales, you know, a lot of narratives would have been broken, but uh but then the day started, and it escalated uh uh throughout the day. So uh it's Wednesday afternoon, so we were able to hear the Fed meeting and all the drama that happened with oil prices.
Okay, do you want to start with oil prices first or the Fed? Well, let's talk about oil. Um Trump is now, even though there's no fighting going on, he's really, you know, down with this uh blockade and uh foreseeing hoping that will force Iran's hand.
Uh there's always rumors about, you know, a strike here to maybe, you know, get people up to the table, but oil prices, which, you know, a lot of people were surprised it isn't higher. Crude went up to $120. Uh we're past the Russian-Ukraine uh invasion.
We're back to, like, and this is Brent crude, we're back to 2012-2013 levels. Uh WTI followed very, very aggressive. Uh the 10-year yield followed along with that into the Powell meeting.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed chair succession
- mortgage rates
- purchase applications
- oil prices
- federal reserve policy
Watch the episode
Watch “Powell’s last Fed meeting as Fed chair” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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