Episode summary
Is housing on hold until after the midterms?
HousingWire Daily
· · 20 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that housing is not simply going to pause until after the midterms, even with the recent spike in rates, oil, and 10-year Treasury volatility. He said he has not seen the kind of slowdown in new listings data that would suggest sellers or buyers are stepping away, and he expects any post-election effect would have to show up quickly in the trackers if it existed at all.
He said purchase demand is weaker at higher rates, but only modestly so on a week-to-week basis, and he emphasized that the existing-home market and new-home market are behaving differently. In his view, new home sales can still rise because builders can buy down mortgage rates, even when builder confidence is low, though that depends on profit margins and gets more expensive as rates climb.
Mohtashami also pushed back on sensational housing headlines, saying Redfin’s reported hottest home price growth and the eight-month high in new home sales can both be true within different parts of the market. He argued the best read comes from inventory, new listings, price cuts, and pending sales, not from hoping for a political turning point.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami does not think buyers and sellers will broadly wait until after the midterms, because he has not seen the new listings data weaken that way.
- He said purchase applications were only down 1% week to week, even though higher rates have pushed year-over-year demand weaker.
- New home sales hit an eight-month high because builders can still buy down rates, but that is a profit-margin story, not a sign of a broad housing rebound.
- He said the existing-home market is different from the new-home market and should be tracked with inventory, new listings, price cuts, and pending sales.
- Mohtashami argued that rate volatility, oil spikes, and geopolitical headlines matter because housing performs best when markets are boring and stable.
Notable quotes
“if if people wanted to do that, we'll see it in our new listings data. It's just not there”
“I mean, we were down 1% week to week. Uh uh the year-over-year data the previous week was down 19. it was down 11”
“The new home sales market is different than the existing home sales market because it can still buy down rates”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined by lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about how the midterms could affect housing. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending stories on housingwire.com.
First is hot economic data sends mortgage rates to yearly highs. Followed by Jenny Mays Gormley signals no change to FHA MIP for now. Then we have House Canary files for chapter 11 bankruptcy in New Jersey.
And the mortgage rule book is getting less prescriptive. Finally, we have new home sales are at an eight-month high but still stuck after 10 years. Okay, we're ready to start.
Logan, I would say welcome back to the podcast, but you're the one who's been holding down the fort since I've been out, so I'm the one to welcome back. But let's get started.
Well, I mean, you know, there there there were rumors, you know, that uh uh you and I had a riff because you were part of that uh uh rap duo video that we put on and — Nobody's seen you for a while. So, people were wondering if you were talking to me anymore.
Just remember that there's a lot more coming. It's going to get more advanced over the years. So, you got to get used to it
On AI. Yeah, I was like, "What are you doing with that rap video? No, I'm never out of the game.
I think it's great. I am at my daughter's um I'm It's a wedding week for my daughter. So, thank you so much for doing so much this week, but we have a lot to talk about.
I mean, I feel like every single hour when I check stuff, it's crazy. So, you know, talk about where we are, especially like, you know, we're going to talk about like does housing need to wait till after the midterms at this point.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- midterms impact housing
- new home sales
- mortgage rates
- fha mip
- housecanary bankruptcy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- HouseCanary
Watch the episode
Watch “Is housing on hold until after the midterms?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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