Episode summary
Can Trump get lower mortgage rates with Warsh at the Fed?
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the Fed meeting did not change the big picture for rates or housing: no rate cuts are priced in, one hike is already priced in, and mortgage rates are still likely capped around 6.75% unless economic data and inflation accelerate more sharply. He said Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tone was largely performative for a first press conference and that Warsh is signaling a preference for price stability over aggressive support for growth.
A major theme was that Warsh, and people around him, may want to end the Fed’s dual mandate and focus more narrowly on price stability. Logan said that would require Congress and would face resistance from Democrats, but he thinks the regime is already shifting away from the Powell-Yellen-Bernanke playbook. He also said the Fed should reduce forward guidance and eliminate dot plots so markets are forced to react more directly to data rather than Fed language.
On housing, Logan said starts have stalled despite higher rates, which shows zoning reform alone will not solve supply problems. He argued that lower rates help the math for builders, but vacancies, disinflation, and financing still matter. His view is that housing can improve if rates stay lower for longer, but a real breakout in construction would require stronger demand, better spreads, and a calmer Fed.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said no Fed cuts are priced in, one hike is priced in, and mortgage rates are still bounded near 6.75% unless data worsens.
- Mohtashami said Kevin Warsh sounded hawkish because he had to establish credibility, not because he was sending a dramatically new policy signal.
- Mohtashami argued the Fed should end forward guidance and dot plots, because markets react too violently to Fed commentary.
- Mohtashami said housing starts have stalled even with higher rates and that zoning alone will not fix the supply problem.
- Mohtashami thinks the bigger risk for mortgage rates is a real pickup in growth, inflation, and wages, not the current Fed meeting.
- Mohtashami said a higher unemployment rate can be acceptable if inflation stays stable and the economy keeps growing.
Notable quotes
“No rate cuts is priced in one rate hike is already priced in with the 10-year yield and where mortgage rates are at”
“I have no problem with taking forward guidance away and killing the dot plots”
“Housing starts tanked. What's happened since rates have risen? Housing starts have gone nowhere”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to answer my questions about the Fed meeting and talk about housing starts. First, here are the top five trending articles on housingwire.com.
Our Fed coverage is trending at the top, both the newsroom's initial story and Logan's analysis. Then we have five lessons from the first half of the 2026 housing market. And the very interesting story of Bed Bath & Beyond buying Fathom Holdings.
We have the initial story, but also a follow-up piece, uh and that's the one getting a lot of attention as we sought to find out, um more about that interesting story. Finally, we have Congress reaches bipartisan agreement on the Road to Housing Act. Lots going on there.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast or maybe you should say welcome back to me to the podcast.
Back. Where where are you right now? — I am in uh New York City. I'm in Brooklyn in a very cool uh Brooklyn apartment in the basement of my uh daughter's apartment. There's on one side there's a sewing studio, on the other there's a recording like uh musical area. I My kids are so cool. So anyway, so yes, I'm in I'm in the basement, but uh loving it.
Well, good. Good. Good. Of course, we you weren't here on Fed day, so uh we we we had to do a solo act and as Rebecca would tell you, I properly behaved. There's no editing needed or anything, so
No, I really appreciated it, actually. I listened to it, learned a lot and uh loved your take and I'm going to ask some follow-up questions today cuz there's all sorts of things that are, you know, people have questions about, but I thought you did a great job.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed meeting
- housing starts
- mortgage rates
- kevin warsh
- inflation
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Bed Bath & Beyond
Watch the episode
Watch “Can Trump get lower mortgage rates with Warsh at the Fed?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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