Episode summary
A shockingly good existing home sales report
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami said the latest existing home sales data was a meaningful upside surprise and fits a broader pattern of housing holding up better as mortgage rates eased. He argued that sales have recovered from the mid-2022 low, with roughly 400,000 more home sales than at the bottom, and that the key threshold remains whether rates stay below about 6.25% to support continued growth in 2026. He also pointed to purchase applications as another positive signal, noting double-digit week-over-week and year-over-year gains.
Mohtashami said the housing backdrop is healthier than in recent years because inventory is higher, home price growth has slowed, and affordability has improved somewhat even though it remains stretched. He pushed back on the idea of a severe crash, arguing that 2024 pricing outcomes were stronger than expected because rates fell and demand stabilized. In his view, a 2008-style comparison is off base because inventory is far lower now than it was then.
Looking ahead, he said the spring buying season could benefit if rates stay near current levels, and he repeated that low-6% mortgages can still support sales growth. He added that a sustained move lower in rates would likely require weaker labor data or narrower mortgage spreads, making 2026 a potentially constructive year for housing if those conditions hold.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said existing home sales have climbed roughly 400,000 from the mid-2022 trough as rates moved lower and spreads improved.
- He said rates below 6.25% can support another 237,000 sales in 2026 if that level lasts for 12 months.
- Mohtashami said purchase applications were up 16% week over week and 13% year over year, which he sees as a positive demand signal.
- He argued the market is healthier than 2008 because year-end 2025 active inventory was 1.18 million, far below 4 million in 2007.
- He said affordability has improved modestly because home-price growth has slowed while wages have risen, even though conditions are still stretched.
Notable quotes
“existing home sales kind of bottomed out mid June or just June about 3.93 million and then that's when rates started to uh break that 6.64 line”
“If rates could just stay below six and a quarter, you could get an additional 237,000”
“We have purchase apps and of course I always like to you know take everything in the second week of the year and going on”
“there's no there's no inventory shortage anymore out there”
“Active inventory in 2007 was 4 million. We were ended the year at 1.18 million, right? 1.18 million”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about the shocking existing home sales report we got this week. As always, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast and this time live. Logan, welcome back to the podcast and this time in person.
Yes, one of the rare events. Should we do the paper rock scissors thing? — No, cuz I'll I'll lose again. I always get like, oh no. Um, this is exciting though. And what a day to be here. Existing home sales. Okay, crazy.
Just saying. If anybody goes back and look at the bar chart, existing home sales kind of bottomed out mid June or just June about 3.93 million and then that's when rates started to uh break that 6.64 line the inventory data started to look and throughout this entire time people we were told it's the greatest seller versus buyer gap in history. We were told that the cancellation rates are the highest ever.
We were told D-listings are going to go, home sales can't grow. We got roughly almost near 400,000 um more home sales from that point. So now that we've had the tracker now for three years, the trackers talked about the flow of data really revolves around the 10-year yield, right?
The slow dance and now the spreads are better. So you have to adapt everything to the reality as mortgage spreads are much better now. labor over inflation, 10-year yield is lower, rates are under six and a quarter.
Uh, oddly enough, um, you know, for the 2026 forecast, we talked about existing home sales. If rates could just stay below six and a quarter, you could get an additional 237,000.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- existing home sales
- mortgage applications
- gse bond directive
- purchase applications
- housing market
Watch the episode
Watch “A shockingly good existing home sales report” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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