Episode summary
Why housing inventory just turned negative
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the market is still reacting more to headlines from the Iran conflict than to a clear shift in fundamentals, and he said the bond market and oil prices have not moved enough to suggest the deal is definitively off. He pointed to WTI around the low 90s and the 10-year yield near 4.50 as levels that, in his view, do not yet signal the escalation he would expect if diplomacy had fully failed. He said the key test is whether oil and diesel prices fall and whether ships start moving again.
On housing, Logan said the weekend tracker’s showing of year-over-year negative inventory was expected because the market shifted in mid June 2025 and the year is now running into tougher comps. He argued that Memorial Day likely distorted new listings for the week and that a rebound should show up next week. In his view, the current setup is healthier than the extreme seller market of 2020-2021 because wages are growing faster than home prices and supply and demand are moving toward balance.
He also emphasized mortgage spreads as an underappreciated stabilizer. Logan said spreads can widen when yields fall quickly because they are trying to reduce volatility, and he argued that even with recent conflicts, spreads have not behaved like a crisis. He said the housing market now depends on how the bond market reacts to incoming economic data, especially jobs week, but he does not expect a major reset unless rates, oil, and shipping all move meaningfully lower.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the Iran conflict is still unresolved, but oil and the 10-year yield have not risen enough to confirm a full breakdown in negotiations.
- He said housing inventory turning negative year over year was expected because the market shifted in mid June 2025 and is now facing harder comparisons.
- He expects Memorial Day to create a temporary dip in new listings and inventory, with a rebound likely the following week.
- Logan said mortgage spreads remain a key buffer that helps keep mortgage rates from spiking, even during major geopolitical headlines.
- He said the housing market is healthier now because wages are outpacing home prices, which is improving affordability gradually rather than through a crash.
Notable quotes
“if the deal was not going to happen because we are in June, then WTI oil prices will be well over 125”
“if the 10-year yield goes north of 470, that to me is that the bond market and oil prices are saying the deal's not not in place”
“Nothing. Absolutely nothing”
“Mid June 2025”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about the Iran conflict heating up again and housing inventory going negative year-over-year. Before we dive in, I want to recap the top trending stories on housingwire.com.
First is the weekend tracker. Housing inventory just turned negative year-over-year. That's followed by the breaking news from the weekend that Brookshire Hathaway is going to acquire the builder Taylor Morrison.
Then we have the story that's now a week old but newly relevant. What happens to mortgage rates if the Iran conflict is over? Closing out the top five.
As the Florida housing market finds its footing, sellers still face pricing realities and our announcement of the 2026 marketing leaders. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here Monday morning and hello. Wow. Here we go again.
Um, over the weekend, Trump did some amendments, but then Israel attacked Lebanon and Iran says, "We don't want to talk to you guys anymore. So, what happened this morning? 10-year yield went up $450.
Oil prices WTI 9394 last time I checked. So, we always said this is this process is not going to be pretty. There's going to be a lot of crazy headlines.
There'll be people who try to sabotage this. But just to give everyone some perspective, if the deal was not going to happen because we are in June, then WTI oil prices will be well over 125 because we're running out of time now. Also, Iran has a financial and every incentive to try to get something done because if we go into July, NATO then comes in if we take NATO for their words because it's going to get a lot hectic for everyone around the world if oil doesn't uh uh pick up.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing inventory
- mortgage and real estate market
- iran conflict uncertainty
- year over year inventory change
- housing supply shortage
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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