Episode summary
Existing home sales and the jump in first-time homebuyers
HousingWire Daily
· · 16 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Existing home sales beat estimates and showed year-over-year growth, but Logan Mohtashami argued the result was not a surprise if you had been following recent tracker data. He said the market has been helped by slightly lower rates than earlier this year, improving affordability as wages have risen faster than home prices, and a steady pickup in weekly pending sales since late March.
The biggest surprise for many readers was the jump in the first-time homebuyer share to 35% from 30%, but Logan said that move is mostly a denominator effect from a low sales base, not evidence of a sudden affordability breakthrough. He stressed that the NAR’s monthly sales-based survey should not be confused with its separate annual survey, and that the monthly share has generally been around 30% for a long time.
Logan also framed the report as part of a healthier supply backdrop: rising inventory and rising sales, with total active inventory around 1.55 million and more than 4 months of supply. He said that combination should help keep home-price growth contained, while mortgage spreads remain one of the year’s most important positives.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said existing home sales were stronger than expected because rates, demand, and affordability have improved modestly versus earlier in the year.
- He argued the jump in first-time homebuyers to 35% was largely a denominator effect from a low base, not a new structural shift.
- Mohtashami said the monthly NAR first-time-buyer figure should not be confused with the annual survey, which he says is often misread.
- He said rising inventory alongside rising sales is the “chef kiss” setup because it can limit home-price growth.
- Mohtashami said mortgage spreads have been a key positive this year and help explain why rates remain below the worst-case outcomes many expected.
Notable quotes
“existing home sales, right? Beat uh beat estimates, year-over-year growth”
“what we're going to try to do here is just explain that this should not have been a shock to you anyone”
“that's a big increase. You were affordability is at all-time lows or whatever, you know, people are saying there's no way first-time home”
“the monthly data. I I've always put more weight on the monthly data”
“What is the chef kiss that we love to see? Rising inventory, rising sales cuz that can put a lid on home price growth getting out there”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about existing home sales and first-time home buyers. First, wrapping up our top five trending articles today, number one goes to the announcement we made this morning that HousingWire has acquired Keeping Current Matters.
Very exciting day for us. Um that's followed by Logan's coverage on existing home sales, UWM sanctioned after a judge orders Mat Ishbia to testify, and then the battle for leads pitting real estate versus mortgage, and a head pilot on robotics built housing and automated permitting. Lots, lots going on.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. Um again, we always start off oil prices down a little bit, 10-year yield down a little bit. Who knows what's happening really, but uh uh obviously what what happened with the weekend, it didn't escalate into higher energy prices and and higher yields uh uh from Sunday.
So, we are here uh today. We still haven't broken really above 6.75 on rates, but existing home sales, right? Beat uh beat estimates, year-over-year growth.
Um I know the first-time home buyer percentage caught a lot of people by surprise, but what we're going to try to do here is just explain that this should not have been a shock to you anyone. Um the NAR's existing home sales reports tends to have a little bit more revisions lately, but even with all the revisions, all the existing home sales have been above 4 million. The forecast this year was for 237,000 existing home sales growth from last year.
If rates stay 6 and a quarter under with Now that everything we've had with higher rates, that would have easily happened uh uh if that was the case, but housing has kind of held up and we just kind of want to explain the report in a little bit more context.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- existing home sales
- first-time homebuyers
- housing market signals
- mortgage industry
- housingwire acquisitions
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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