Episode summary
Tariff news, potential war with Iran and mortgage rates
HousingWire Daily
· · 17 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that mortgage rates are being shaped more by stable Fed policy and compressed volatility than by the day’s geopolitical headlines. He said the market has already absorbed a lot of bad news — from tariff changes to fears of conflict with Iran — and expects only limited military action, not a prolonged war, which would keep the bond market relatively calm. He also said the 10-year yield near 4.06 and historically low jobless claims suggest little immediate pressure for a sharp move in rates.
On housing, he said the bigger story is that lower rates, lower spreads and rising inventory are making the market healthier than it was in 2023. The weekend tracker showed weekly pending sales back to year-over-year growth, new listings improving after weather disruptions, and price-cut percentages easing, which he framed as evidence that the recent slowdown was more about snow and holidays than a real deterioration in demand.
He also said the upcoming State of the Union could include housing-friendly remarks, especially around supply and builders, but that announcements and implementation are different things. The White House may want more housing production, but Logan said any meaningful results would take time and depend on broader policy conditions.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the 10-year yield around 4.06 and low jobless claims suggest mortgage rates are not being pushed materially higher by current headlines.
- He expects any action in Iran to be limited strikes, not a prolonged war, so he does not think the oil or bond market reaction will become extreme.
- The weekend tracker turned more positive, with weekly pending sales back to year-over-year growth and new listings improving as weather effects faded.
- He said lower mortgage volatility is helping buyers make better decisions, and that the market is healthier than in 2023 because inventory is higher and price growth is less extreme.
- Logan said housing policy talk in the State of the Union could be supportive, but meaningful supply gains would take time and are not the same as announcements.
Notable quotes
“the tariffs are going to 15% now, you know, unilaterally. And I was just like, you know, I'm bringing my Jack Bower glasses out”
“I don't believe there's any more rate cuts while Powell is in in in charge, but uh jobless claims is still historically low”
“I don't think there's any prolonged tracted war here”
“there's going to be no more 50-year mortgage. So, you know, I'm I'm happy about that”
“the weekly pending sales are back to the year-over-year growth”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about how the headlines on foreign and domestic issues are affecting mortgage rates. Before we jump in, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast. A very eventful morning. Well, you know the theme that we always said it was going to be the year was going to be like the show 24
And yesterday we had on the verge of war with Iran. You know, there's Mexican cartel fighting. You know, uh there's going to be a huge snowstorm in New York.
You know, the tariffs are going to 15% now, you know, unilaterally. And I was just like, you know, I'm bringing my Jack Bower glasses out, you know, yesterday and going, "All right, let's talk about economics. And then there was another big AI uh paper out there that the unemployment rate is going to go to 10% in 2028 and you know uh there's all so it was one of those one of those days where you know I thought about John Connor.
You know who John Connor is?
Absolutely. The Terminator.
Well, I was just thinking when John Connor as a kid in the first Terminator movie said, you know, hey, we're not going to make it, are we? And I was realizing he was talking about the labor market. It wasn't about anything else.
Listen, when it all comes down, Skynet, they're gonna do like these wealth taxes on Skynet, okay? Skynet's not going to love the wealth tax and then people are going to attack the data centers and there's going to be all these robots with skull faces and we're like, we knew this was going to happen all the way back in the 1980s and 90s.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- tariff news
- potential war with iran
- mortgage rates
- foreign policy impact
- domestic headlines
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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