Episode summary
Positive spring housing outlook at risk from escalating Iran war
HousingWire Daily
· · 19 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that spring housing was starting from a relatively positive position: existing home sales, purchase applications, and pending sales were all improving, and purchase apps had been positive year over year for several weeks. His baseline view was that, with mortgage rates holding at or below 6.25%, housing could still post stronger sales in 2026 than last year.
The concern is that the escalation in Iran could change the rate backdrop. Logan said the Strait of Hormuz disruption, attacks on ships, and higher oil prices finally pushed the 10-year yield above 4.15% and then toward 4.21%, raising the risk that mortgage rates stay elevated longer than hoped. He said the market has been able to absorb a lot of chaos so far, but energy costs, diesel, fertilizer, and food could start feeding through to consumers if the conflict lasts.
He framed March 21 as a rough line for when rising input costs and sentiment damage could become more visible in the data. Sarah Wheeler pushed on the idea that “uncertainty” alone is holding back buyers, and Logan pushed back, saying the housing data do not show that: the key variable remains rates, not sentiment headlines, at least for now.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said purchase applications were up 7.8% week to week and 11% year over year, with several straight weeks of double-digit annual gains.
- He argued that if rates stay at 6.25% or below, existing home sales can still outpace last year.
- The Iran escalation pushed the 10-year yield above 4.15% and then around 4.21%, which he sees as the main near-term threat to housing.
- Logan said the consumer “uncertainty” argument is not showing up in the housing data because purchase apps and pending sales remain positive.
- He warned that if the conflict lasts past March 21, higher gas, diesel, fertilizer, and food costs could start to hit sentiment and housing demand more visibly.
Notable quotes
“we officially had something that finally drove the 10-year yield over 415”
“Purchase application data positive again today, 7.8% 8% week to week, 11% uh year-over-year”
“all of that's positive. And that's why if we didn't have this Iran conflict, now we might have higher rates”
“I only had 237,000 more existing home sales this year than last year based on if rates just stay six and a quarter and under”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about the positive housing data we have for spring that is now at risk with the escalation of the war in Iran. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast. It is wonderful to be here and you know just before we went on you told me to you know do my hair sideways because it looks very Johnny Johnny Bravo-ish or whatever that guy
Johnny Bravo is the cartoon character. So
Uh yeah the hair grows when the volatility grows and we we officially had something that finally drove the 10-year yield over 415. You know we talked about earlier this week that you know it can't stay here forever. got to pick a side.
And it's interesting, Sarah, we can't do these podcasts once once a day. We got to do them twice a day because when we're done, something happens, you know, and we push up. And and I was laughing because one of our fans says, you know, you're always on Instagram doing videos and Sarah's not there to boss you, so you shouldn't pick on her.
You know, you have your own outlet without her. And I was like, you're right. But I'm still going to pick on her because, you know, being being on here is much different than an Instagram uh live story.
Um yeah. Uh yesterday the minds they they brought minds into the equation. I I did an AI video of me. — So Iran uh started mining the straight of Hormuz, right? That's the news you're talking about. — Yes. And that that headline came in and uh the 10-year yield went up, oil went up, and then uh you know, the discussion of releasing 400 million uh reserve barrels, you know, it's it's really how much how much you could release a day that kind of how long this could be, but it's it's not really changing oil prices much right now.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spring housing outlook
- iran war escalation
- mortgage rates
- yields
- 2026 housing growth
Watch the episode
Watch “Positive spring housing outlook at risk from escalating Iran war” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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