Episode summary
How rising oil prices affect mortgage rates
HousingWire Daily
· · 23 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argues that the surge in oil prices has not yet been enough to force a decisive move in the 10-year Treasury yield or mortgage rates, even as oil briefly nears 120 and markets react to the Iran conflict. He says the bond market is essentially refusing to choose between two competing interpretations: higher oil could be inflationary and push yields up, or it could damage demand enough to become recessionary and pull yields down. For now, he sees the 10-year yield stuck around 4.15%, calling it a standoff rather than a clear macro signal.
He says the current housing backdrop remains more stable than the headlines suggest. Purchase applications have been positive year-over-year every week in 2026, pending sales improved after the snow effect faded, and inventory growth has slowed sharply from 33% to 6.91%. Logan says mortgage rates near 6% are allowing a normal spring season, with price cuts cooling and demand improving modestly.
He also argues that the existing home sales report should not be read as a crisis signal. In his view, the data remain backward-looking, while oil, tariffs, and geopolitical escalation are the forward-looking risks that matter most. He says if the conflict drags past March 21st, higher energy costs could start to hit consumers more directly and force the market to reassess.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says the 10-year yield around 4.15% shows the bond market is not yet choosing between inflation risk and recession risk.
- Mohtashami says oil near 120 could raise gasoline, diesel, food, and airline costs, but also hurt demand enough to become disinflationary.
- Mohtashami says purchase applications have been positive year-over-year every week in 2026, including five double-digit weeks.
- Mohtashami says inventory growth has slowed from 33% to 6.91%, which supports a healthier spring housing market than in 2023.
- Mohtashami says the key housing risk is not existing home sales data, but whether the oil shock persists past March 21st.
Notable quotes
“the 10-year yield is like we're not picking sides. We're just going to we're just going to sit here until things clear up”
“The growth rate of inventory has now gone from 33% now down to 6.91%”
“purchase application data has been positive year-over-year, every single week”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Modosami to talk about the escalation in oil prices and why that has not so far affected the 10-year yield or mortgage rates. Very interesting conversation. Before we dive in, I want to say thank you to our uh sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast on this very eventful Monday morning.
Well, we you know, you and I need to do the Douggee on stage. That's what I figured. You know, that's that's what we need to do. Come on stage together and do the Douggee. So, wow.
That I did not get any sleep last night. I'm sitting there looking at the 10-year yield and oil prices, oil prices getting to almost 120 and how the 10-year yield reacts. And we are sitting here Monday morning when the first bombing started to happen.
We always said I need the 10-year yield to close above 4:15 and get followthrough selling if I think the bond market really thinks this is going to impact something. We are sitting here Monday morning. It's like going into its third week and as I'm talking to you right now, the 10-year-old's at 413 and it's it's the John Ham dancing meme.
you know, mortgage rates and the bond market are just like whatever y'all you whatever y'all need to do with each other, go ahead. We're just going to stay down here because we're not committed either way. And we wrote an article like trying to explain like mortgage rates and oil prices because, you know, there's some historical things where people think, well, oil shs up, there's a recession.
You saw that in 2008, you saw that in the early 1990s. Um, but we had an oil shock in the 70s.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- oil prices
- mortgage rates
- iran conflict
- u.s. housing market
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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