Episode summary
The big miss on jobs, escalating oil prices and mortgage rates
HousingWire Daily
· · 22 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argues that the market’s reaction to the weak jobs report is being overwhelmed by the surge in oil prices and the Iran conflict. He says the labor market has been softening since the start of 2025, with repeated negative revisions, but the latest miss matters because breadth in job growth has narrowed so much that the loss of two remaining growth sectors leaves little to replace it.
Despite the volatility, he says mortgage rates have stayed relatively calm because bond yields and mortgage spreads are still being buffered by Fed policy and earlier rate cuts. With the 10-year yield around 4.11% and mortgage rates around 6.14%, he sees the move as a tug-of-war between labor weakness and inflation pressure from oil, tariffs, and higher PPI. He argues that if not for the Iran escalation, rates could be lower.
Mohtashami also pushes back on recession talk. In his view, the economy is not in recession unless jobless claims break and broader indicators like consumption, investment, and industrial production roll over. For now, he says the main theme remains “labor over inflation,” even if the path forward is unusually noisy and fast-moving.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami says the jobs miss reinforces a softening labor market that has been developing since early 2025, especially as job growth has become narrowly concentrated.
- He argues that oil’s jump to about $92, combined with Iran news, is keeping mortgage rates from falling even as the 10-year yield swings lower.
- He says mortgage rates are still being supported by earlier Fed cuts and tighter mortgage spreads, which he calls the market’s “unsung hero.”
- Mohtashami does not see a recession yet, saying recessions usually require jobless claims to break and broader data to deteriorate together.
- His base case is still “labor over inflation,” but he says the Fed is only talking about a few more cuts at most, not an accommodative stance.
Notable quotes
“this is about one of the craziest weeks ever. And I thought about what we have done all week long”
“we had a negative jobs report we talked about that this jobs report could be quirky but you know even if I take it quirks out of it. It's still a soft report”
“Mortgage pricing is pretty much flat. We might get a repricing lower for the day”
“I think the hawks now are kind of because we're just talking about getting the Fed policy to neutral”
“We have never had a recession until jobless claims break. It's never occurred one time”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about the big jobs myths, oil prices surging, the Iran news, and how all of that is affecting mortgage rates. Before we jump in, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to this podcast. in what we can only describe as another day of 24.
Oh, it's like the hair is going to go crazy and nuts just like the markets did all week. Wow. Wow.
Wow. Sarah Wheeler, I have been doing this for a very long time. And this is about one of the craziest weeks ever.
And I thought about what we have done all week long starting from you know last weekend's uh tracker where he talked about that 415 level but for the 10-year yield and oil prices you know if oil if oil if WTI oil could get over 82 it has legs to go well as we are talking right now WTI is at $92 the 10ear yields at 411 we had a negative jobs report we talked about that this jobs report could be quirky but you know even if I take it quirks out of it. It's still a soft report. In any case, bond yields fell, of course, right away.
And then Trump did some social media posts that he wants unconditional surrender. Bond yields vertically went up back to the highs of the early morning. Oil prices went made another leg higher, but then the 10-year yield is coming down.
So, as I am talking at this second
On Friday, — Yeah, Friday morning, we went from 418 to 411 to 418, now down to 411 again. Mortgage pricing is pretty much flat. We might get a repricing lower for the day.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- jobs report
- oil prices
- mortgage rates
- iran news
- mortgage outlook
Watch the episode
Watch “The big miss on jobs, escalating oil prices and mortgage rates” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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