Episode summary
Why mortgage rates are near 6% amid the war with Iran
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that mortgage rates near 6% and the 10-year yield around 4.07% make more sense than many traders think, even amid war headlines and hotter inflation data. His main point was that the bond market is still behaving as if labor-market weakness matters more than inflation reacceleration: job growth is narrow, with ADP’s 63,000 gain coming mostly from healthcare and social services, and that is helping keep yields from breaking higher.
He said the Iran conflict is not looking like a classic 1970s-style oil shock, partly because the market backdrop is different and because there is still ample oil supply floating in markets. He also argued that 1970s comparisons are misleading because that decade had much stronger labor-force growth and a very different housing and economic environment.
On housing, Logan said purchase applications are still up double digits year over year, weekly pending sales remain positive, inventory is up, price growth is cooling, and spreads are better. He thinks those trends point to a better spring 2026 backdrop, even if near-term data are noisy from snow and seasonality.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the bond market is still prioritizing labor weakness over inflation, which is helping keep the 10-year yield around 4.07% and mortgage rates near 6%.
- He argued the Iran war is not yet being priced like a 1970s oil shock because the market has more floating supply and the Middle East backdrop is different.
- Logan said ADP’s 63,000 job gain was mostly healthcare and social services, reinforcing his view that job breadth is too narrow.
- He said purchase applications are up double digits year over year and weekly pending sales are positive, suggesting housing demand remains resilient.
- Logan expects a better spring 2026 housing backdrop because inventory is up, price growth is cooling, and spreads are improving.
Notable quotes
“the bond market is not acting normal like you know it's just it's ignoring a lot of headlines”
“And it's it's confusing the hell out of people”
“mortgage rates I don't whatever the pricing is today is near 6% still”
“the jobs data is not good enough being creating jobs anymore”
“Purchase apps uh uh up double digits year-over-year”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about the war in Iran, mortgage rates, purchase apps, and jobs data. Before we dive into all of that, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast. Sarah Wheeler, this has been a very, very fascinating and interesting week. Um, we're still at war with Iran.
Not a lot of ships are really coming through. They're doing drone attacks. We just blew up a submarine.
24, you know, um the ISM service sector report was was good, very expansionary. I think the highest print since 2022. Um the 10-year yield is at 407 right now.
And when we go back to what we wrote over the weekend to what we wrote the second time this week about you know it's not being fully priced in. But to go back in the last you know 7 to 10 weeks the bond market is not acting normal like you know it's just it's ignoring a lot of headlines. And this is the mother of all tests on multiple data fronts because we've had a hotter PPI inflation report.
We had a hotter prices paid manufacturing input report coming in. We're going to do 15% tariffs. We're at war with Iran.
Oil prices are up. The 10-year yields at 4.07% and mortgage rates I don't whatever the pricing is today is near 6% still. And it's it's confusing the hell out of people.
But I I would say this because our topic is going to be about jobs Friday. The the ADP report came in as a slight beat of estimate 63,000 jobs, but it's really just all healthcare and social services. So maybe the breath of the labor market not growing is, you know, kind of keeping a lid on yields acting what people are perceived to be not normal.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rates
- war with iran
- purchase apps
- jobs data
- housing market
Watch the episode
Watch “Why mortgage rates are near 6% amid the war with Iran” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from HousingWire Daily
-
The headlines impacting mortgage rates -
Has housing demand already changed with lower rates? -
How midterms and jobs week will affect rates -
Preparing for Q1 growth in reverse mortgages -
A clear pathway to sub-7% mortgage rates for Thanksgiving? -
Mortgage rates, inflation and those homeowner vacancy numbers
HousingWire Daily, this episode and its artwork belong to HousingWire. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
