Episode summary
NAR’s Jessica Lautz on expectations for the spring housing market
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Jessica Lautz
Summary
Mortgage rates have been drifting down, and Jessica Lautz said that is already improving the setup for the spring housing market. She argued that lower rates are helping both buyers and sellers, especially in markets where pent-up demand has been waiting on the sidelines, and she described the current environment as better than the last couple of years even if it is not a boom.
Lautz pointed to several signs of resilience in the data: first-time buyers rose seasonally and were above last year’s level, while buyers waving contingencies fell to the lowest level NAR has seen in four years. She said home prices are still climbing in most markets because supply remains tight, especially at affordable price points, and about 16% of homes are still selling above asking price.
She also defended NAR’s first-time buyer age research, saying the median age rises to 40 because the sample includes all-cash buyers, many of whom are older and using inherited wealth. Looking beyond first-time buyers, she said repeat buyers are older too, with a median age of 62, as the Great Recession, longer tenure in homes, and mortgage rate lock-in all encourage people to stay put. She added that the bigger supply solution may be unlocking older homeowners’ equity and making homes more age-friendly, not just building new units.
Key takeaways
- Jessica Lautz said falling mortgage rates are the clearest positive for the spring market, and she thinks more sellers may finally list as conditions improve.
- NAR’s data shows first-time buyers increased seasonally, while contingencies were waived less often than before, a sign of less frenzied bidding.
- Lautz said 16% of homes are still selling above asking price and home prices are still rising because supply is constrained at affordable price points.
- She said the median age of first-time buyers rises to 40 only when all-cash buyers are included; excluding them, the age is flat at 38 year over year.
- Lautz said repeat buyers are older too, with a median age of 62, because people are staying in homes longer after the Great Recession and due to mortgage rate lock-in.
- She argued that housing supply may be unlocked by policy changes around capital gains and aging in place, not just by new construction.
Notable quotes
“we're looking at an early spring in some of the markets which has not been true for the last couple of years”
“We actually saw a draft of this to the lowest level that we've seen in four years”
“we are continuing to see year-over-year increases in home prices. And that's truly just due to supply uh in demand”
“if you include the all cash folks, what you can see is the median age went up to 40”
“the typical homeowner has gained 50% housing equity in just 5 years”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is Jessica LZ, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors to talk about the spring housing market as far as home prices, concessions, cash buyers, and more. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Jessica, welcome back to the podcast.
Thank you. I'm really excited to be chatting with you.
I'm very excited to have this conversation. Of course, you were at our housing economic summit gave an incredible presentation. You and I got to talk um in the green room backstage about some other things and so I was like, let's have you on.
Let's talk about this. Now the setting of this conversation um some things have changed you know pretty pretty uh significantly on the macro level you know with some some world events you know with uh what happened over the weekend with Iran but we really want to focus on the spring housing market that the knowables what we can talk about because um that situation could change by the time we get off of this podcast. So, let's let's focus on kind of the trends that you're seeing and what you're thinking about um the home buying season and and some other topics if that if that works for you.
Yeah, that sounds great. That sounds great. Yeah, I there's always unknowns, right?
And I I feel like even by the time that I'm done with this sentence, uh mortgage interest rates are going to change. So, um there's always unknowns. I will say though is is what we have been seeing since I was at the conference which was wonderful um is actually uh a a drop in mortgage interest rates and so if we look at the overall trajectory of mortgage interest rates they have actually been declining and I think that we're looking at an early spring in some of the markets which has not been true for the last couple of years.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spring housing market
- home prices
- buyer concessions
- cash buyers
- housing market outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- National Association of Realtors
Watch the episode
Watch “NAR’s Jessica Lautz on expectations for the spring housing market” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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