Episode summary
Pending home sales, purchase apps and mortgage rates
HousingWire Daily
· · 17 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami says the latest housing data are weakening again because mortgage rates have pushed back up toward 7% to 7.5%, with pending home sales and purchase applications both turning lower year over year. He argues that the market is not collapsing like 2022, but it is still stuck in a familiar pattern: when rates move above 6.64% and especially toward 7%, demand fades and weekly tracker data soften quickly.
He says purchase applications fell 7% week to week and 18% year over year, while pending sales are showing a bigger annual decline. In his view, the key issue is affordability and rates, not seasonality. He says if rates were around 5.75%, demand would be rising, but current levels are keeping buyers on the sidelines.
Mohtashami also ties the rate outlook to the 10-year yield, oil prices, the conflict in the Middle East, and the Fed. He says the bond market has been reacting to geopolitical and inflation risks, and that mortgage spreads are still low enough to help if Treasury yields ease. He expects the Fed to hold steady for now, with any real improvement depending on lower oil, calmer markets, and better clarity later in the year.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says pending home sales and purchase applications are weakening because mortgage rates have moved back toward 7% to 7.5%.
- He says purchase applications were down 7% week over week and 18% year over year, a sign demand is still rate-sensitive.
- Mohtashami argues this is not a 2022-style crash; it is a slower market with inventory rising and price growth easing.
- He says mortgage rates could improve if the 10-year yield falls below 5.35% and oil prices cool further.
- He believes the Fed is likely to stay on hold, with more clarity possible by the December meeting if inflation pressures ease.
Notable quotes
“when mortgage rates got above 6.64%, and then slowly started move up to seven”
“Same thing with purchase application data, uh, where we had a 7%decline, uh, week-to-week, and an 18%decline”
“this is another year of inventory up, price growth slowing down, wages outpacing home prices and record low levels”
“If rates were 5.75%demand would be rising, but that isn't the case right now”
“the bond market chose violence at that point”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by my podcast partner, lead analyst Logan Mohtashami, to talk about purchase apps, pending home sales, and mortgage rates. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending stories on housingwire.com.
First, we have mortgage rates cool down in response to AI stock sell-off, lower Treasury yields. Followed by real Remax CEO says AI will take over housing systems. Then we have elevated rates just made it harder to build more homes in America.
And North Point to sell distributed retail consumer direct channels to CMG. Finally, we have 2026 governor races put housing affordability on the line. Okay, we're ready to go.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast. And we have some amazing news to announce. This is a big deal.
HousingWire Daily, you and me, we won the um best from the Signal Awards, we won best daily podcast. This is such a big deal.
You know, I for a second there, I looked at everyone that won um Bloomberg uh uh won uh Scott Galloway's uh market uh won. And then there was like all these the Middle East podcast, you know, won. And there we are, you know, and uh for a lot of people don't know this.
Most of our uh audiences is audio, but uh we are the number one business news real estate mortgage podcast in America for like many years. But to get an award like this with the scale, Sarah Wheeler, much props. If I'd give you another fist bump right now, but
No, props to you, too. I mean, this is such a big deal. Of course, we have to mention Rebecca Black, who is our podcast producer, Emilio Diaz, who who helps produce, and Logan Mohtashami. Thank you so much. You have made this such an amazing daily podcast.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- pending home sales
- mortgage rates
- mortgage applications
- purchase apps
- housing market
Watch the episode
Watch “Pending home sales, purchase apps and mortgage rates” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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