Episode summary
Oil prices, mortgage rates and jobs Friday preview
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami says the jump in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict is now one of the main forces pushing the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, but so far it has not broken mortgage rates back above 7%. He argues that the oil-to-yield correlation has become unusually strong, while the mortgage market is still being buffered by spreads and a labor market that is not reaccelerating sharply.
On the housing side, Logan says purchase applications are holding up better than many expected: they were positive week to week and flat year over year, even with tougher comparisons ahead. He argues that this does not look like a market on the verge of a collapse, and that weekly tracker data is showing demand and new listings holding up better than the loudest bearish narratives suggest.
Jobs Friday is the other major risk event. Logan says the labor market is not booming, but it also is not showing the kind of deterioration that would clearly force the Federal Reserve’s hand. He expects the payroll number, unemployment rate and wage growth together will matter more than any single headline print, especially with hawkish Fed members still focused on inflation and oil.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says mortgage rates are still under 7% mainly because oil-driven moves in the 10-year yield have not yet translated into a decisive breakout higher.
- He argues purchase applications are holding up better than expected, with week-to-week gains and only flat year-over-year performance despite tougher comparisons ahead.
- Logan says the jobs report matters because the Fed is watching labor data closely, but a weak headline alone may not be enough if unemployment and wages stay firm.
- He says the market is not seeing the kind of ARM-driven inventory surge that some online commentators have predicted, because today’s ARMs are underwritten very differently from 2008-era loans.
Notable quotes
“the 10-year yield is really moving off oil prices, but uh this morning it was mild”
“if you actually look at oil and the 10-year yield, that correlation chart is at is at multi- uh uh year highs right now”
“purchase application data came out today positive week to week flat year-over-year with harder comps”
“it's hard for some of these Fed members to call for a rate hike on an oil shock on a conflict and have back-to-back negative reports”
“the 10-year yield is really moving off oil prices and uh we have had a lot of drama”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about oil prices and jobs data and how both of those are affecting mortgage rates right now. We have a lot to talk about, but first here are the top five trending articles on housingwire.com.
At the top of that list is Nexa Lending launches new model touts 100% revenue split for LOS's followed by House Republicans outline plan to overhaul CFPB. Then we have mortgage rates jump after Wars Jackson Hole remarks and J Bray on how Rocket plans to win brokers in a tough market. Finally, we have our announcement on the 2026 housing war vanguards.
These are the goats of the housing industry. That's real estate, mortgage, title, appraisal, home building. Definitely check that out.
Okay, let's dive in. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. Both you and I are back home, no longer in uh Michigan. Had a very, very fun uh event at North Point Bank. But, uh, wow, what a week. It's went I mean, jobs week gone to this, you know, full special 24 episode. Jack Bower Clo, I mean, they brought everyone. It's like the survival reunion of 24 all in one one week.
I feel like so much has changed since the last time we talked. It's only been two days, but especially just the escalation in the Iran conflict, which you've pointed to as being, you know, very relevant right now. And then what happened since? So, let let's start there because I know we have a lot I want to get to, but that escalation, what has that done to oil prices? What has that doing the 10-year yield?
It's done nothing. It's it's kind of crazy to think about this, but um for those that might not know, uh we have a tankertotanker policy now.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- oil prices
- mortgage rates
- jobs data
- mortgage rate outlook
- labor market
Watch the episode
Watch “Oil prices, mortgage rates and jobs Friday preview” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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