Episode summary
The best and worst case for housing as the Iran war continues
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami says the housing market’s path now depends on how far the Iran war escalates and how that moves oil, the 10-year yield, and mortgage rates. He argues the market is being driven almost entirely by headlines, with bond traders and oil traders reacting together, and he would even pause tariffs if he were in charge to reduce the damage from a supply shock.
In his worst case, oil spikes toward 150 or 200, inflation reaccelerates, the Fed turns more hawkish, and mortgage rates move back above 7%, which would push housing demand back into the same stalled pattern seen in recent years. He says that would be a supply shock, not a demand problem, so more Fed tightening would only make things worse for housing.
In his best case, a quick deal restores oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, the 10-year yield falls, and mortgage rates slip under 6.25%. Logan says housing data has looked “perfectly fine” below that level, and because current mortgage rates are around 6.55%, even a modest improvement could help demand recover. He emphasizes that the outcome could change quickly over a weekend, which makes volatility especially difficult for buyers, sellers, and loan officers.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says the worst case for housing is an oil shock that pushes mortgage rates back above 7% and crushes demand.
- He argues the Fed would likely get more hawkish in a supply-shock scenario, even though that would not solve housing’s problem.
- Logan says the best case is a quick deal that restores oil flows and pulls mortgage rates below 6.25%.
- He says mortgage spreads have improved enough that housing is currently around 6.55%, so small moves in the 10-year yield matter a lot.
- Mohtashami says volatility makes locking loans much harder because transactions only have about 8 to 11 business days to work with.
Notable quotes
“if it's me personally, the first thing I would do is I would eliminate all tariffs”
“the worst case scenario that there is no clear ending and the escalation got so bad that it would take months and months and months”
“anything above seven is worst case because the spreads got so much better before the year that it really takes the 10-year yield much higher to get above seven”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk through the best and worst case scenarios for housing as the Iran war continues. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast. And we're not in person today.
No, we're not. no paper rock scissors game where I could beat you in, but it's Friday morning when this podcast comes out. And what a what a week this has been after the 21st of March.
Um of obviously we could see things are escalating into a point to where do we have a deal? Do we have a ceasefire? Do we have other countries?
Is everything coming in? Um it's Thursday morning. Thursday morning Trump had some tweets, truth, social post, whatever you want to call it.
10-year yield went up, oil prices went up, then oil prices fell, 10-year yield fell, and then Trump got on camera. And once he got on camera,
Some of the stuff he says is
I try to take it in a humorous way. It's just, you know, it's like, oh, they're begging for a deal and oh, no, no, this and, you know, the other ones, all the the ones who didn't do deals are dead, you know. So in any case, the more he talk, the 10ear yield went up, oil prices went up.
So we're we're we're back here again where everything is headline and oneline sentences and moving rates up and down and oil prices up and down. And of course it's like the weekend is coming up. So
Right, — Uh they talked about plans like, you know, are they going to do big military plans now?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iran war housing impact
- mortgage rates outlook
- best case scenarios
- worst case scenarios
- housing market outlook
Watch the episode
Watch “The best and worst case for housing as the Iran war continues” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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