Episode summary
Jobs preview and why the Fed is still hawkish
HousingWire Daily
· · 20 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the Federal Reserve is still hawkish partly because officials are overweighting the idea of a “mortgage rate lockdown,” which he says is a misleading way to think about housing demand. He said Fed members like Beth Hammack appear to believe low-rate borrowers will not move, so higher rates supposedly do less damage to housing than people think. Logan pushed back, saying housing can still improve with mortgage rates in the low 6% range and that the Fed should use more current housing data rather than stale reports.
On jobs week, Logan said the labor market has been improving, but not enough to change the Fed’s stance yet. He said the Fed’s break-even for jobs is around 33,000, though his own estimate is closer to 78,000 given recent distortions and a weaker labor backdrop last year. He also said oil-price declines have not softened the hawks; instead, they now worry that lower energy costs could boost spending and inflation. That makes Thursday’s jobs report important for how the 10-year yield and mortgage rates react.
Logan’s broader view is that the policy debate has shifted from rate cuts to potential hikes, and that the second half of 2026 will depend on whether labor data stays strong enough to keep hawks in charge.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the Fed’s “mortgage rate lockdown” mindset is distorting policy and making officials think housing is less rate-sensitive than it is.
- Logan said the Fed is comfortable with jobs gains above about 33,000, while his own break-even estimate is closer to 78,000.
- Logan said falling oil prices have not made the hawks more dovish; instead, they now worry cheaper energy could lift consumer spending and inflation.
- Logan said the policy debate has shifted from two or three rate cuts to the possibility of no cuts or even rate hikes.
- Logan said the 10-year yield and mortgage rates now hinge more on labor data than on the Fed’s old housing assumptions.
Notable quotes
“It is people like you and others who have made the Federal Reserve not think about housing at all”
“Mortgage rates just getting to 6% can grow sales”
“If the Federal Reserve members are saying, well, it doesn't really matter. we can't do anything because we can't get rates to three or four”
“the Fed all they care about is like 33,000 jobs and if that happens then they're completely happy”
“to me, anything 78,000 above, the Fed is fine with because jobless claims are low”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about jobs week and why the Federal Reserve is still hawkish. First, here's the wrap-up of the top five trending stories on housing.com.
At the top of the list is CFPB moves to expand mortgage credit followed by the three pilot programs rolled out by Bed Bath and Beyond in their housing roadmap. Next, we have mortgage rates drop but isn't the start of a trend and Logan's article today on why Fed President Beth Hammock wants more rate hikes. Finally, our story on Rocket Red Fin integration gains momentum one year after deal.
As always, you can get a 20% discount on a subscription with the p with the code podcast 20 and read all of our great coverage. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here, Sarah. I figured it out with the Federal Reserve today. — Okay. Oh, what did you figure out? Tell me.
It is people like you and others who have made the Federal Reserve not think about housing at all. Uh the mortgage rate lockdown discussion is now a detriment to every mortgage person and realtor and anybody uh uh wanting to buy a house. I just watched Beth Hammock talk and we're going to we're going to go into this because we wrote the article about her.
But when Sarah Eisen, the CNBC uh uh anchor who interviewed us said, "Well, what about housing? you know, because Beth Beth wants a hike rates policyy's restrictive for housing. She's like, "Yeah, but it doesn't kind of matter because the mortgage rate lockdown, all these people took low rates, so you know, she was basically saying, "Hey, doesn't matter what we do.
Uh, nobody's going to give up their 3% mortgage or, you know, so so it's we don't care.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- jobs week
- fed hawkish
- rate hikes
- mortgage credit
- mortgage rates
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RKT
- Federal Reserve
- CFPB
- Bed Bath & Beyond
- Rocket
- Redfin
- Rocket Mortgage
- Rocket Companies
Watch the episode
Watch “Jobs preview and why the Fed is still hawkish” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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