Episode summary
Here's how housing survived the Iran conflict
HousingWire Daily
· · 19 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that housing held up through the Iran conflict because affordability improved even as headlines got worse. He said wages have outgrown home prices for the last two years, mortgage rates never broke above 7% in the first half of 2026, and mortgage spreads have moved much closer to normal, all of which helped keep sales from collapsing. He pointed to weekly pending sales, purchase applications and total pending home sales as evidence that demand stayed firmer than many expected.
He also said the market is entering the second half of 2026 with a better setup than the prior few years: more inventory, slower price growth and rates that are lower than during the 2023-2025 stretch. Mohtashami framed the Iran conflict largely through oil prices and the 10-year Treasury, saying traders were signaling de-escalation and that the bond market mostly ignored the noise. He added that the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone has been shaped by oil and geopolitical risk.
On the Supreme Court’s Lisa Cook decision, he argued it had little immediate market impact because Trump still does not have the votes to change Fed policy. He said jobs data remain important for rates, but the bigger story is that labor market improvement removed one reason the Fed could have turned more dovish.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said housing survived the Iran conflict because wages outpaced home prices and mortgage rates never got above 7% in early 2026.
- He said mortgage spreads have improved to about 2.03%, with roughly 20 to 25 basis points more room to normalize.
- Mohtashami argued the bond market did not react to the Lisa Cook ruling because Trump still lacks the votes to shift Fed policy.
- He said oil prices, not political commentary, are what matter most for the conflict’s impact on rates and Treasuries.
- He said labor market improvement reduced the odds of additional Fed easing, keeping yields higher than some expected.
Notable quotes
“housing doesn't operate well when rates are above 7%. And if it happens within a calendar year, it just it slows everything down”
“affordability got better on its own because wages out- grew home prices for the last 2 years”
“the reason why Donald Trump just wants to take Lisa Cook out so they could he could put one of his own people in”
“the bond market doesn't care because Lisa Cook is one of the doves, like one of the productivity doves”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about why housing survived the Iran conflict, the Lisa Cook decision from the Supreme Court and more. First, I'm going to review the top five trending articles on housingwire.com starting with the tracker article we published Saturday titled how the housing market survived the Iran conflict followed by Supreme Court blocks Trump from removing Fed governor Lisa Cook.
Then we have our coverage of the VA's loan fee hike proposal and industry pushback and the latest on the Bed Bath and Beyond acquisition of Fathom which is part of their overall strategy on mortgage real estate, title and more. Uh finally, we have Fannie Mae expands title pilot which continues get numbers with our audience. Okay, Logan.
Welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here, you know, we wrote the tracker article, you know, now that we're heading into the second half of of of 2026 and obviously now that people know for the housing market shifted, you know, about a year ago and comps are going to be a a lot different now going out for the second half, but what we did is we show we have so many charts that I can use and Sarah, you tell you just you you you you'll not have, you know, me posting 40, 50 charts, you know, that we can do for our tracker. So, I've only I only can post a few and for this weekend's tracker, I posted our total pending home sales. Now, we have our weekly pending home sales which is a week-to-week thing.
It's kind of a think of it like jobless claims. Jobless claims have a week-to-week data that can be very volatile, but you get a you get a a sense of a trend, but you got to be able to know enough to know when something is is is pushing it up higher or lower, but our total pending is like a moving average, like a four-week moving average, like the four-week moving average for jobless claims.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing market resilience
- iran conflict
- supreme court decision
- fed governor lisa cook
- mortgage title programs
Companies and tickers mentioned
- FNMA
- PHM
- Bed Bath & Beyond
- Fannie Mae
- PulteGroup
Watch the episode
Watch “Here's how housing survived the Iran conflict” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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