Episode summary
Why the Fed wants more rate hikes
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish tone is being driven by officials who want slower growth, not by any belief that rate hikes can fix oil shocks, the AI boom, or housing directly. He said Beth Hammack is effectively the leading hawk and wants policy tight enough to discourage companies from expanding, even if that means keeping the Fed funds rate materially higher than today. He also said that view would not help housing, because the Fed does not prioritize existing home sales or construction when inflation and the labor market remain the main concerns.
On mortgage rates, Logan said the key technical level remains the 10-year yield at 5.35%, and if that breaks, yields could move toward 6% to 6.41%, which would keep mortgage rates under pressure. He said mortgage spreads are still below 2025 levels, so they are not yet the main force pushing rates higher, but they remain important to how far mortgage rates can move.
On inventory, he said the recent decline in new listings and inventory is mostly seasonal, not a sign of renewed demand strength. He argued that current rate levels continue to suppress housing demand, with weekly pending sales and purchase applications weaker, and that the market is still working through the same low-inventory dynamics that were already present before COVID.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said Beth Hammack is the Fed hawk most focused on slowing company expansion, not on helping housing.
- He argued the Fed’s rate hikes cannot fix Middle East conflict, the AI boom, or housing affordability, only cool demand.
- He said the 10-year yield at 5.35% is a key line; a break above it could send yields toward 6% to 6.41%.
- Logan said mortgage spreads are higher than their 2026 lows but still below 2025 levels, keeping rates from going much worse for now.
- He said the latest inventory dip is seasonal and does not change his view that demand stays weak at current mortgage-rate levels.
Notable quotes
“we've protected that 10-year yield at 5.35% and we had a lot of drama”
“We have the potential to easily go up towards 6 to 6.41%”
“there is no data with rates here that shows growth”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about mortgage rates and inventory trends going into 2027. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending stories on housingwire.com.
First is EXP The first is EXP Realty. Nope. First is EXP and New Rez form Ravenous Mortgage Joint Venture, followed by Leo Pareja says rising rates have already prompted a housing crash.
Then we have FHA lending to non-permanent residents has dropped in the wake of HUD's rule change, and Trump forms panel to investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Finally, we have HUD outlined seven steps to update manufactured housing code. Okay, we're ready to go.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast. Logan, welcome back to the podcast and you are in full 49ers gear for people who
Let me tell you all something. I did not have this in my bingo card and I'm a very optimistic football fan, but to have the 49ers five and 0 playing the Rams, Broncos, and the Seahawks and to have my UCLA Bruins five and 0 beating Oregon in Oregon, ranked 12 in the nation this year with everything beforehand was not on the bingo card this year, so I am very, very happy what happened over the weekend, so
Also, the 49ers, as usual, are plagued with injuries. I don't even understand it.
I know, I know. I think seven starters are out. I mean, the whole defensive line has been, you know, we were starting to get some people back, but it's it's just a tough team.
You know, Sarah, if we were next next to each other, I'd I'd give you a uh, Dre Greenlaw headbutt, you know, you know, and uh, that's uh, yeah, so it just that's such a physical tough fighting game and you know, and that's when whenever you have a good rivalry, that's how those games should be, but uh, just to all the Brock Purdy haters right now, how do you like me now?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed policy
- mortgage rates
- housing inventory
- rate hikes
- housing market
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Federal Reserve System
Watch the episode
Watch “Why the Fed wants more rate hikes” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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