Episode summary
MBA’s Bill Killmer on how the midterms could change housing
HousingWire Daily
· · 22 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Bill Killmer
Summary
Bill Killmer said the midterms could reshape housing mainly through oversight and personnel, not through a sudden policy reset. He argued that Democrats have momentum in the Senate and could retake the House, but the size of any majority will determine how much gets done. A narrow majority would make governing difficult for either party, while divided government would limit sweeping legislation and push both sides toward more incremental moves.
He said a Democratic House or Senate would likely mean more hearings, document requests, and scrutiny of agencies like HUD, FHFA, USDA, VA, CFPB, and the prudential regulators. If Republicans hold the Senate, he expects the Trump administration to keep pressing its regulatory agenda and filling vacancies. He pointed to CFPB and HUD as examples where leadership changes and staffing levels will shape how quickly priorities can move.
On housing policy, Bill Killmer said the biggest near-term opportunities are lower consumer costs at the closing table: reducing credit reporting costs by revisiting tri-merge, lowering FHA mortgage insurance premiums, and adjusting GSE loan-level price adjustments. He said mortgage rates will still be driven more by the Fed, Treasury, and broader fiscal policy than by Congress, though debt and deficit politics could matter if lawmakers pursue durable budget reforms.
Key takeaways
- Bill Killmer said the midterms matter most for housing through oversight, agency leadership, and the size of the congressional majority, not through an immediate mortgage-rate shift.
- He said Democrats appear to have a tailwind, especially in the Senate, but a very narrow majority would limit how much they can change.
- Bill Killmer said the MBA is pushing three consumer-cost priorities: cheaper credit reporting, lower FHA mortgage insurance premiums, and changes to GSE LLPAs.
- He said CFPB and FHA are the clearest examples of how personnel changes can quickly alter the regulatory direction of housing policy.
- He said mortgage rates will still depend more on the Fed, Treasury, and fiscal policy than on Congress alone.
Notable quotes
“the trusted polling sources are are really showing that Democrats have got a tailwind, particularly in the Senate”
“there will be more oversight if that's true just in the house but doubly so and more intensely if the if the Senate is also democratic”
“personnel is policy and that'll be a really important function of the Senate”
“I think there will be bipartisan opportunities, but building that bipartisan consensus will be tougher”
“the most consequential thing that Congress could do would be focus on fiscal policy and the debt and the deficit”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is Bill Kilmer. He's the chief lobbyist at the Mortgage Bankers Association to talk about what might we see in the midterm elections and how that could affect housing. Bill, thank you so much for being here.
Thank you, Sarah. I appreciate the invitation. — We just got off stage a little while ago at the Mortgage Banking Summit here in Dallas and great discussion there that I wanted to continue here because this is a big one. So let's start at the top and talk about what do the polls show? Do we think there's going to be a big change in the midterms? There usually is some change that two-year political cycle. What what are you guys seeing?
Uh well, you know, Sarah, you and I were talking earlier that historically any president, Republican or Democrat, typically in the midterm election cycle has some pressure based on, you know, that administration being held accountable, particularly if their party also is in control of the Congress. And that's the situation for Republicans. But even since you and I were first talking a couple of weeks ago about this event, things have really been moving in the Democrats' direction and the polling reflects that.
I think there's so much more polling that a lot of it's erratic, but the trusted polling sources are are really showing that Democrats have got a tailwind, particularly in the Senate. The House, the conventional wisdom has been that, you know, because of the historical precedent and just the way that redistricting and and and and some of the other factors have played out that Democrats have a very serious shot to retake the majority from Republicans. The question is how large will the margin of majority be if they in fact do get that kind of mini wave to help do that.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- midterm elections
- mortgage industry
- housing market
- legislation
- mortgage policy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Mortgage Bankers Association
Watch the episode
Watch “MBA’s Bill Killmer on how the midterms could change housing” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from HousingWire Daily
-
Has housing demand already changed with lower rates? -
How midterms and jobs week will affect rates -
Preparing for Q1 growth in reverse mortgages -
A clear pathway to sub-7% mortgage rates for Thanksgiving? -
Mortgage rates, inflation and those homeowner vacancy numbers -
What did the Fed meeting mean for mortgage rates?
HousingWire Daily, this episode and its artwork belong to HousingWire. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
