Episode summary
How many Fed rate hikes are left?
HousingWire Daily
· · 22 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami says the market is still pricing in two more Fed rate hikes, with October unlikely and December the more likely window. He argues the Fed is being pushed by a mix of inflationary pressures tied to the conflict, trade policy, and AI-related capex, while the bond market has already gotten ahead of some of that tightening.
Mohtashami frames the central issue as political and macro uncertainty rather than a clean economic cycle. He says the conflict, trade war, and AI spending are the biggest variables, and that the Fed appears to be waiting for more resolution before acting aggressively. He also says the midterms matter because the unpopular parts of policy could influence what the Fed does next.
On housing, he says higher rates continue to pressure mortgage demand and year-over-year sales comparisons, even if mortgage spreads have helped keep rates from being worse. He expects the tracker to remain weak into 2027 unless rates and the broader policy backdrop improve, and he warns that new listings and supply can soften if sellers decide to wait out the market.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami expects no October hike and says the Fed is more likely to move in December, with two more hikes total still the baseline.
- He says the conflict and trade war are now as important as AI in pushing rates higher, and both are politically unpopular.
- He argues AI capex is still massive, citing $10 trillion of planned spending from 2025 to 2032, even as data-center enthusiasm cools.
- He says mortgage demand remains weak, with purchase applications still down week over week and year over year.
- He warns that if new listings weaken, that would be another hit to housing demand because supply depends on seller behavior.
Notable quotes
“it does not look like we're going to get a rate hike in October, but December for sure”
“I'm still in the camp that says they're waiting for for conflict to end”
“you have to take Beth Hammack out of the equation cuz Beth Hammack would be raising rates, you know, every every meeting until we see growth slow down”
“the planned spending from 2025 to to 2032 is $10 trillion”
“I just don't think these moratoriums I think changes the bigger landscape”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by my podcast partner lead analyst Logan Motorshawmi to talk about how many Fed rate hikes we have left in this cycle. Before we start here the top five trending articles on housingwire.com.
First is mortgage industry reacts to Pulty's absence at MBA annual. Followed by did mortgage rates just peak or is this some bond market madness? Then we have surging job site raids put 370,000 new home completions at risk.
And what midterms could mean for realtors in the housing market. Finally we have could your lead gen and referral practices face FTC scrutiny? Senators want a closer look.
Okay, we are ready to dive in. Logan, welcome back to the podcast. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. But another tough loss for the Seattle Seahawks. You know, just just this breaks my heart. See? — Oh, yeah, right. — You you lose the coordinator and you lose the star running back and Oh, man. Much different team. Much different
Listen, who knows how many losses we will have we're recording this on Friday morning. It doesn't come out till Monday. So, you know, don't don't count your chickens before they hatch. — I'm I'm I'm just saying, you know, it's the benefits of having Thursday night football is that you can relish on some of the close losses that your your rivals have and there we have a lot of Seahawk fans who like to talk a lot of trash and hopefully you guys could end the year up at 500 and maybe get in the playoffs.
Oh my gosh. The trash talking. Okay, well, let's talk about what's on everyone's mind in our industry is like how many rate hikes are we looking at now, right?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed rate hikes
- mortgage rates
- bond market
- housing market
- realtor impact
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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