Episode summary
What’s really happening in the housing market?
HousingWire Daily
· · 25 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the housing market is not in a crash, but in a slow, mostly range-bound adjustment. He said the recent online panic over inventory and sales missed the broader data: existing-home sales were still positive year over year, inventory was only up slightly, and prices were barely changing. In his view, the real story is that demand is cooling as mortgage rates move above about 6.64%, while the market remains healthier than in prior downturns.
He emphasized that weekly tracking data is meant to show what is actually happening, not generate dramatic headlines. Purchase applications, pending sales, and price cuts were all weakening only modestly, which he said points to a market that is “working itself out” rather than collapsing. He also argued that affordability is not deteriorating the way it would if home prices were rising 5% or 6% this year.
Looking ahead, Logan said mortgage rates are unlikely to return to 3%, and even getting meaningfully below 5.75% would require a much weaker labor market, a more dovish Fed, and better mortgage spreads. He also pointed to the conflict, Treasury yields, and midterm politics as important variables for the rest of 2026.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the housing market is slowing, but not crashing, with inventory up only 1.28% and prices roughly flat.
- He said purchase applications have cooled from 7% to 12% growth to roughly flat or slightly negative year over year.
- Mohtashami argued mortgage rates above 6.64% tend to slow demand, but the market has not seen the kind of volume drop that marked prior crashes.
- He said rates below 5.75% would likely require a weaker labor market, a very dovish Fed, and improved mortgage spreads.
- The host and Logan framed the current market as healthier because inventory is higher and price growth is slowing, not being artificially propped up.
Notable quotes
“whenever mortgage rates get above 6.64, things slow down”
“there's really not much going on and I don't know like if people know how to talk about it”
“I think it's more complicated when things are slower because there's actually a a real good healthy story”
“we do not have any history in the United States of America”
“stop crying about mortgage rates. There are other things to, you know”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about what's really happening in housing today after some inflammatory headlines over the weekend. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending stories on housingwire.com.
First, we have Logan's foreclosure story. Why 2026 foreclosure gains are not a housing crash signal, followed by UWM faces class action lawsuit over hedge strategy. Then we have the latest tracker inventory edges slightly higher year-over-year as rates rise and Zillow layoff details show severance terms and senior roles cut.
Finally, we have where are boomers and Gen X moving in 2026. Okay, let's get to our topic today. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
And I must say, you did a great job doing the solo podcast that aired today.
See, I don't know why you're always worried that I'm going to go off the rails, you know. I I I save that for Twitter and X, man. You know, so uh
No, you did. It was a really good podcast. I thought it was great and um you covered a topic that I think a lot of people were talking about, had questions about, and it was you kept it on point.
Yeah, it's um it's one of these topics, you know, of course you get negative feedback about, you know, not not being so positive on the capital gains being increase or taken away. But also, I thought it was good that other people just opened up themselves to the idea, wait a second, this might be actually an inflationary thing for for first-time home buyers in in that sense. So, it was good.
It it got a conversation starting at least on that. No, I really appreciate it. Of course, I was at my sisters, could not get on Wi-Fi for whatever reason.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- inventory
- home prices
- home sales
- mortgage rates
- zillow layoffs
Companies and tickers mentioned
- ZG
- Z
- UWMC
- Zillow
- United Wholesale Mortgage
- Two Harbors
Watch the episode
Watch “What’s really happening in the housing market?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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