Episode summary
Does the ceasefire give housing room to grow?
HousingWire Daily
· · 20 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
The ceasefire headlines mattered mainly because they briefly pulled oil and the 10-year yield lower, which Logan Mohtashami argued is the key variable for mortgage rates and housing. He said the bond market never confirmed the worst-case war scenario, and that the 10-year yield staying below the 429 range keeps it in the bullish channel that supports housing affordability.
Mohtashami pushed back on the idea that higher oil automatically means much higher mortgage rates. He noted that mortgage rates stayed below 6.64% this year and were under 6.25% for much of the period before the conflict, largely because Federal Reserve policy and mortgage spreads matter more than oil alone. He argued that if spreads were still where they were in worse periods, mortgage rates would already be above 7%.
On housing data, he said purchase applications turned negative year over year for the first time in 2026, but the trend is still only slightly below last year after a tough comp. He expects the Fed to stay focused on inflation being above target and labor data that is not deteriorating, with jobless claims as the key trigger for any real shift toward easier policy.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said the ceasefire relief helped push the 10-year yield back under 429, which he views as supportive for housing.
- He argued mortgage rates are driven more by Fed policy and spreads than by oil prices alone.
- Purchase applications turned negative year over year, but he said the trend is only modestly below last year after a difficult comparison.
- Mohtashami said the Fed is comfortable with job growth above 30,000 and is unlikely to accelerate cuts unless jobless claims worsen.
- He expects inflation and labor data to keep the Fed near neutral policy rather than accommodative policy.
Notable quotes
“We technically have maybe a ceasefire maybe. I don't know yet, but uh um definitely the the worst case scenario of Tuesday night uh didn't occur”
“the 10-year yield looks kind of correct to me. Uh, uh, and mortgage rates never got above 6.64%”
“who do we want to give a hug to Sarah? A mortgage spread”
“the Federal Reserve is completely fine if job growth is above 30,000”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about purchase apps, inflation, what the Fed might do next, even in the midst of some other crazy Iran war headlines. Before we dive in, I want to say thank you to our sponsor, Total Expert, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. We technically have maybe a ceasefire maybe. I don't know yet, but uh um definitely the the worst case scenario of Tuesday night uh didn't occur. So, here we are today, this morning with oil down and the 10-year yield down, but we shall see.
Yes, absolutely. I was going to say, okay, we have averted disaster or at least that particular disaster. Um although you know there was a ceasefire announced and then there really wasn't a ceasefire and uh right before we came on I saw of course we're doing this on uh Wednesday about midday that the ceasefire is officially over but these things changed pretty quickly so it's hard to say what's happening but I did want to check in with you on like so far how how is the 10-year yield reacting to this chain of events.
So yesterday the tenure yield got us high on Tuesday about 438. So we never actually went back and tested that double top that we talked about in the podcast in the previous week about you know 446 448. So as the day progressed and Pakistan got involved and you know talks oil fell 10ear yield fell and then the announcement came overnight 10ear yield went as high as 438 came all the way down to 424 which is we're in the bull we're under 429 we're in the bull that's what you you want you want to be
Okay what does the bull mean — The bull is from September all the way until the war started the 10ear yield has been in a low-level channel and I call it the bowl cuz we don't really leave it.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ceasefire impact
- housing data
- mortgage rates
- ten-year yields
- fed jobs and inflation data
Watch the episode
Watch “Does the ceasefire give housing room to grow?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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