Episode summary
MBA’s Marina Walsh on the housing market outlook
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Marina Walsh
Summary
Marina Walsh said the MBA expects originations to rise 8% to $2.2 trillion, but she framed the outlook as a mixed K-shaped economy. Higher-income households with stock gains, home equity, or low pre-pandemic mortgage rates are holding up well, while other consumers are struggling with rising debt, worsening delinquency trends, and uneven labor-market conditions.
Walsh said the gap between FHA and conventional delinquencies is now near 900 basis points, with FHA delinquency levels back to roughly 2011-2012 territory once COVID is excluded. She pointed to changes in FHA loss mitigation, borrower vintage, and state-by-state economic stress as key drivers, and said serious delinquencies remain the biggest pressure point. On VA, she said the industry needs guidance and a partial claim program implementation soon.
Foreclosures are still low at about 0.53% of servicing portfolios, versus a 1.36% average since 1979, but Walsh said servicers should prepare for more foreclosure work and rebuild staffing and vendor capacity. She also said trigger lead restrictions could improve recapture for servicers, where the current rate is only about 20%, and that AI could help with efficiency if it is used carefully.
Key takeaways
- The MBA expects mortgage originations to increase 8% to $2.2 trillion, but Walsh said the recovery is uneven and tied to a K-shaped economy.
- Walsh said FHA delinquencies are nearly 900 basis points above conventional and have returned to roughly 2011-2012 levels excluding the COVID period.
- She said about 30% of loan workouts involve borrowers who have had a previous workout, underscoring recurring borrower vulnerability.
- Foreclosures are still only about 0.53% of servicing portfolios, but Walsh said servicers need to rebuild foreclosure staffing and vendor networks.
- Walsh said recapture is running around 20%, and trigger-lead limits could create an opportunity for servicers and banks with existing borrower relationships.
Notable quotes
“The highle message is that we're expecting originations at least to increase a bit to eight, you know, by 8% to 2.2 trillion”
“But the whole idea of a K-shaped economy I think is alive and well”
“that gap between FHA and conventional is sitting at almost it's it's pushing 900 basis points”
“foreclosures are sitting at about 0.53% of servicing portfolios is the overall number”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is Marina Walsh, vice president of industry analysis at MBA and we are here in person at the NBA Servicing Conference to talk about her housing market outlook. Very excited to dive into this. First, I want to say thank you to our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Marina, thank you for being here. Sarah, it's always a pleasure to join you.
Well, we are thrilled. Um, I wanted to talk to you about the market update that you gave today. Um, overall, what what's the what's the highlevel message here?
The highle message is that we're expecting originations at least to increase a bit to eight, you know, by 8% to 2.2 trillion. So, that's good leading into it. But the whole idea of a K-shaped economy I think is alive and well.
There are certain um certain groups that are doing very well. Certain people are doing very well. High income.
They've made a lot of money in the stock market. They've accumulated um home equity. Perhaps they got their mortgage pre- pandemic.
They're doing really well. But then you have the others that are really struggling. they may have additional consumer debt.
Consumer delinquencies are moving up a bit. Um, so it's it's a little bit of a a mixed picture in terms of what's happening. Certain sectors like healthcare doing very well, others aren't.
So it's not a a clear it's not sort of a clear path forward, I would say, in terms of where things are.
We see that in the labor data, right? You see the labor data where like healthcare had had a great 2025 if you want to look at that. other sectors not. And of course that that's our those are the consumers that we're all selling to.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing market outlook
- mortgage rates
- servicing conference
- industry analysis
- market forecasts
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Mortgage Bankers Association
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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