Episode summary
Mortgage rates and oil prices this week
HousingWire Daily
· · 22 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that this week’s Iran conflict has not produced the oil spike or bond-market selloff many expected. He said traders appear unconvinced the fighting will move into a broader escalation, even as oil attacks, missile exchanges, and hotter PPI and CPI data hit the tape. In his view, the 10-year yield staying around 4.52% and oil failing to break above the low-90s shows the market is treating the conflict as contained rather than pricing in a more dangerous next stage.
He tied that to mortgage rates by saying the market’s reaction matters more than the headlines themselves. If the conflict were truly over, he said the 10-year should move toward 4.46% to 4.48%; if it escalated, yields and oil should rise more sharply. Instead, he said both markets have drifted lower, which supports the idea that traders do not expect the White House and Iran to push matters much further right now.
Mohtashami also said the housing data is holding up better than many expected. Purchase applications rose 17% year over year and 7% week to week, which he linked to seasonality, improving affordability, and a long-running base effect after the 2025 housing market shift. He said rates below 5.75% would make him more bullish on housing, but even without that, he thinks affordability has improved enough to support demand.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said oil traders are not pricing in a major escalation, because oil failed to break above $94 even during the conflict.
- He said the 10-year yield around 4.52% to under 4.50% shows bond traders are also shrugging off the headlines.
- Mohtashami expects the 10-year could move to 4.46% to 4.48% if the conflict is viewed as over.
- He said purchase applications rose 17% year over year and 7% week to week despite mortgage rates near yearly highs.
- Mohtashami said housing demand is being helped by better affordability, slower home-price growth, and a larger buyer pool.
- He said he would be much more bullish on housing if mortgage rates fell below 5.75%.
Notable quotes
“this week was pretty crazy. We are attacking Iran every night”
“the oil markets and the bond markets do not care”
“I just don't think oil traders think that the next thing is escalation and oil prices are going to take off”
“17% year-over-year growth, 7% week-to-week growth. And everyone was like, "What is going on”
“If I thought mortgage rates would get below 5.75, I'd have a much more bullish take on housing”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about oil prices and mortgage rates this week. First, let me wrap up the top five trending articles on housingwire.com today.
Uh first, we have Google expands real estate listing ads to all 50 states, a very big deal. Followed by Logan's stories on purchase applications and on existing home sales. Then we have an exclusive interview with Figure's Michael Tannenbaum after their acquisition of Kiavi.
And CoStar targets Zillow preview in a filing over the Mred case. So much going on. Logan, so much to talk about today.
Bring us up to date because lots happening even this morning. It's Thursday morning when it comes to oil prices and then we'll talk about how that is going to influence mortgage rates.
Okay, this is one of the most interesting weeks for myself as somebody that's watching oil in the bond market. Uh it's the most interesting week of the conflict. And this is just more how the oil markets and bond yields are trading to news.
So, I woke up early the morning. I saw one of the big oil people just completely lose it cuz he thought, "Why isn't oil over $100? And I thought to myself and I'm and you know, I do these crazy Instagram videos.
I you know, and I had to you know, I'm getting older, Sarah. So, when I do these things early in the morning, I got my eye patches on and you know, just try to you know, try to make but I wrote an article early in the morning to just give you my perspective uh maybe from the mindset of a trader and not somebody that's watching the news or pundit or somebody on Facebook or on or or to that regard that why isn't oil going much higher this week and why isn't the bond yields going much higher?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rates
- oil prices
- iran conflict
- yields
- housing market
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GOOGL
- GOOG
- FIGR
- CSGP
- ZG
- Z
- Figure
- Kiavi
- CoStar Group
- Zillow
Watch the episode
Watch “Mortgage rates and oil prices this week” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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