Episode summary
Explaining the housing inventory story in 2026
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the housing market is still grinding through a normalizing phase rather than breaking into a new boom or bust. He said inventory growth is slowing as year-over-year comps get tougher, but that is happening from an elevated base after last year’s recovery. He highlighted Florida and Dallas as markets many expected to deteriorate sharply, yet both are now negative year over year, which he said undercuts the worst doom-and-gloom narratives.
He also framed mortgage rates as relatively stable despite the Iran conflict and weekend headlines. Logan said bond yields and oil have remained calmer than the news flow suggests, and that mortgage spreads matter because they absorb volatility and help keep rates in a workable range. In his view, housing functions better when 30-year mortgage rates stay at 6 and a quarter and under, with less volatility.
On demand, Logan pushed back on the idea that mortgage-rate lockdown is freezing the market. He said first-time buyers are still constrained, but many existing owners are still selling and moving even with higher rates. The bigger issue, he argued, is not a total freeze but a slower transaction market that still needs more time for affordability and inventory to improve.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said year-over-year inventory growth is slowing to 3.21% because the market is running into harder comps, not because supply has suddenly collapsed.
- He said Florida and Dallas, two markets often used in bearish housing commentary, are now negative year over year on inventory.
- Logan expects new listings can still reach the low 80,000s per week in the seasonal peak, but he called this year’s pace disappointing.
- He argued mortgage spreads matter because they cushion volatility and help keep mortgage rates near 6 and a quarter and under.
- Logan said a true mortgage-rate lockdown would push existing home sales far lower than they are now, because many owners still list and trade up despite higher rates.
Notable quotes
“the bond market and oil prices to a degree feel like something can get done”
“the growth rate of inventory is now down to 3.21%”
“So, we should still hit 80. I think the negative year over year new listings data”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about housing inventory and how he explains what's happening in 2026. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor Toll Expert for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. It is national blockade day uh where the US is now blocking the Strait of Hormuz themselves. Uh and um another, you know, of course we did we didn't get a ceasefire uh agreement.
Of course, something like this, you know, usually takes a lot longer. It took like 18 months to get the original uh Iran deal. So, that's that's not too shocking, but a different tactic.
Um we are now created a block blockade of ourselves and uh I you know, watching people talk about how the economic impacts to Iran and forcing them to meet a little bit more, maybe a more sophisticated way instead of trying to blow up everything. Uh trying to get them to the table and of course if they don't escalate things and maybe we could get a deal out here, but oil prices went up Sunday night. Um 10-year yield went up just a little bit.
10-year yield is basically kind of doesn't break above 4.36 with all the crazy uh headline news and oil prices, but as the day progressed on last time I saw oil prices were back under 100. The 10-year yield was down just a smidge. So,
As crazy as it sounds, the last few uh trading days for the 10-year yield has been relatively calm unless we think there's like a deal about to happen where yields tend to fall down. So, this is where we're at right now of the whole thing and uh still to me the the bond market and oil prices to a degree feel like something can get done.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing inventory
- year over year shift
- iran conflict
- mortgage rate
- mortgage rate lockdown
Watch the episode
Watch “Explaining the housing inventory story in 2026” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from HousingWire Daily
-
Has housing demand already changed with lower rates? -
How midterms and jobs week will affect rates -
Preparing for Q1 growth in reverse mortgages -
A clear pathway to sub-7% mortgage rates for Thanksgiving? -
Mortgage rates, inflation and those homeowner vacancy numbers -
What did the Fed meeting mean for mortgage rates?
HousingWire Daily, this episode and its artwork belong to HousingWire. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
