Episode summary
How to read the foreclosure data
HousingWire Daily
· · 19 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the latest inflation print and falling yields make another near-term rate hike push look less convincing, even though some Fed officials are still calling for higher rates. He said the Fed’s earlier assumption that tariff-related inflation would fade in the second half of the year has been complicated by conflict-related oil and diesel moves, but the recent PPI miss and softer inflation backdrop still matter for policy expectations.
Most of the episode focused on how to read foreclosure data without slipping into 2008 comparisons. Logan said foreclosure starts are an early credit signal, but they only become meaningful when they break above trend and are followed by rising jobless claims and, crucially, a pickup in new listings. He emphasized that a foreclosure pipeline does not matter much until distressed homes actually hit the market.
He argued that today’s market is still far from a foreclosure crisis because new listings remain nowhere near the levels seen in the housing crash, and most borrowers still have equity that gives them options other than foreclosure. Even where some delinquency measures have moved back toward pre-COVID norms, he said the data do not yet support the kind of broad distress that would look like 2008.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the recent inflation read and lower yields make the Fed’s hawkish case harder to sustain, even as some officials still want hikes.
- Logan argued that foreclosure data should be treated as an early warning signal, not a crisis indicator, unless it breaks above trend and is followed by job loss.
- He said the key confirmation is new listings, because distressed homeowners have to actually bring inventory to market before a foreclosure wave shows up in sales data.
- Logan said the current market is nowhere near 2008 because today’s foreclosure and listings data are far smaller than during the housing crash.
- He noted that home equity and loan modifications have helped keep many borrowers from moving into foreclosure even when they fall behind.
Notable quotes
“when I die, Sarah Wheeler promised me, as she'll say it here on the podcast, I will put chart daddy on the tombstone”
“you do not reference 2008, ever, right? And just like and and especially the the new kids on the block are worse than 2008”
“the New York Fed foreclosure data is a credit check. It's the early phase of what's going to happen in the future”
“If it breaks above trend before a recession, something is wrong”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by my podcast partner lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about inflation, the Fed, and foreclosure data. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending stories on housingwire.com.
First is Newrez agrees to $15.5 million settlement over forced place insurance. Followed by our housing market spotlight, price cuts, and the battle for leverage. Then we have America at 250, property rights remain the foundation of the American dream.
And Two Harbors calls UWM lawsuit frivolous, slams management for hedge loss. Finally, we have Logan's inventory is down year-over-year, but months of supply says the housing market is functioning. Okay, Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
By the way, before we get to start, we have to say we have some awesome news today. Redfin came out with their lowest buyer demand ever and the highest sellers ever. So, the reason I bring this up is because the doomers take this and they they run with it.
It also makes a case that we shouldn't be building homes if we have all these homes available. In any case, this actually ties into our foreclosure discussion. And then but I think I think half of X is starting to realize there's something wrong with that cuz usually you get I get bombarded by oh my god, it's 2008, it's worse than 2000, it's ever.
And then I think people realize
I don't know. I saw a lot of stuff on that. I sent it to you first thing this morning. You You of course had already seen it, but I was like This this is what I'm talking about. — I mean, how how I do it is I showed our our chart from our article. I said, "Excuse me, I I got a question.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- inflation
- fed rates
- foreclosure data
- housing delinquencies
- home equity
Watch the episode
Watch “How to read the foreclosure data” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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