Episode summary
Existing home sales and rising home prices
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argues that the headline around existing home sales is not that prices hit an all-time high, but that affordability has improved because wages, inventory, and slower price growth have all moved in a better direction. He says focusing only on nominal prices is a “lazy” way to read the market, because national home prices have almost always trended higher over long periods, and the real question is how prices compare with incomes, supply, and mortgage rates.
He points to ICE’s affordability framework: affordability could improve if incomes rose 19%, home prices fell 16%, or mortgage rates dropped to 4.99%. He says the first two are unlikely, so rates are the most plausible lever, though he does not expect them to fall below 5.75%. Even so, he says affordability has already gotten better over the last two years because wage growth has outpaced home price growth and inventory has risen, which has helped keep demand steady.
Mohtashami also stresses that housing demand is being supported by demographics and dual-household incomes, especially among millennials and Gen Z. He says first-time buyers are still active, existing-home sales remain near 5 million, and the market is functioning differently than in past decades because transactions move faster and lending is tighter.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says home prices at an all-time high do not automatically mean affordability is worsening, because wages and inventory matter too.
- He says ICE’s three affordability paths are 19% income growth, 16% lower home prices, or mortgage rates near 4.99%, but only rates are even somewhat plausible this year.
- Mohtashami argues affordability has improved over the last two years because wage growth has outpaced home price growth while inventory has risen.
- He says first-time buyers remain active, with the existing-home sales report showing a 33% to 35% first-time buyer share, helped by dual-household incomes.
- Mohtashami expects mortgage rates not to fall below 5.75%, but says slower price growth should keep chipping away at affordability pressure.
Notable quotes
“the unsophisticated narrative focuses only on prices, right? And I think to me it's also a not only an unsophisticated take, it's also a lazy take”
“we have these people, you know, like China's home sale home prices are back to 2006 levels and some people like, "Oh my god, look, China's China's affordable”
“long-term affordability can come back to housing if one of these three things happen. Number one, incomes rise 19%. That's not going to happen”
“Because the last two years, inventory has gone up. Now, this remember this equation, everyone. Don't just focus on prices”
“But again, generally what I I tell people when you have dual household incomes, we're not talking about single firsttime home buyers”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about existing home sales and the fact that home prices are at an all-time high. Before we jump in, here are the top five trending articles on housingwire.com.
Leading that list is Synergy 1 to take over New Resist Distributed retail mortgage operations followed by two mortgage stories both by Logan. One is why aren't mortgage rates lower and the second is why it will be hard for rates to get over 7%. Then we have the CFPB seeks input on mortgage disclosures and trade rules.
And finally, NYC office conversions face scrutiny after Fiser HQ incident. So many great stories over there. Okay, let's get to today's topic.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. We just had a like funny discussion about what would it look like if we had an economic love island show, — You know. — Yeah, it was a funny and all the like all economist guys and then, you know, uh and then uh uh we could fight over charts, you know, and which chart wins and stuff like that.
Yes, lots of things happen off air. Um, okay. Well, I want to dig right in here to the existing home sales report because the headline for a lot of people was the fact that, um, home prices are at their all-time high.
Um, which really, you know, affordability is something everyone's thinking about. Of course, we have that that um, recent ICE report. So, I wanted to get your highle view.
What What did you think about um, the fact that home prices are now at an all-time high?
You mean you mean home prices didn't crash in 2026 like all those people talked about?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- existing home sales
- home prices
- mortgage rates
- mortgage disclosures
- nyc office conversions
Companies and tickers mentioned
- PFE
- Newrez
- Synergy One
- Pfizer
Watch the episode
Watch “Existing home sales and rising home prices” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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