Episode summary
Will mortgage rates drop during Fed week?
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Mortgage rates did not look set for a dramatic post-conflict collapse, because Logan Mohtashami argued the bond market had already priced in most of the shift. He said the 10-year yield around 4.47% looked “perfectly normal” given the end of the conflict, and that the best-case mortgage-rate outcome was roughly 6.25% to 6.5%, with a more normal base case of 6.5% to 6.75%. In his view, the worst-case scenario of oil spiking toward 120 to 150 and forcing a renewed inflation scare had been removed, but that did not mean a big rally in rates.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the peace deal removed the worst-case oil-and-inflation scenario, but he still expects mortgage rates to stay mostly in the 6s.
- Mohtashami said a 10-year yield around 4.46% to 4.48% is his post-conflict fair value, and he sees 4.47% as consistent with that view.
- He said the best-case mortgage-rate range is 6.25% to 6.5%, while his base case is 6.5% to 6.75%.
- Mohtashami argued the Fed now matters more than the conflict for rates, because labor and inflation dynamics have shifted away from cuts.
- On housing, he said inventory is down year over year for three straight weeks even as demand stays positive year over year.
Notable quotes
“if the if the conflict is over, the 10-year yield should, this is just my belief, should be at 4.46 to 4.48”
“best-case scenario in terms of what you can look for for mortgage rates going out uh especially we have to wait for the Federal Reserve”
“6 and 1/4 to 6 and 1/2 it's like the best-case scenario at this point”
“The the normal base case is 6 and 1/2 to 6.75”
“Our inventory is now down year-over-year three straight weeks. Demand is positive year-over-year”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about mortgage rates now that we seem to have a peace deal in place and in the midst of Fed week. First, I want to recap the top five trending stories on housingwire.com and at the top is a story about HUD would permit multi-story manufactured homes without a permanent chassis.
This story has been wildly popular since we published it last week. And it's closely followed by Logan's article on the topic we're discussing today, which is how much will mortgage rates fall with the Iran deal and Fed week. Then we have the tracker, why housing demand is up and inventory is down in 2026.
And an update on the UWM two harbors deal. Lastly, our audience continues to read our coverage of Google listing ads going nationwide. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. A A A weekend with drama, but finally something good, you know, uh something at least heading in the in the right direction. Uh if they everything's signed off in Switzerland on Friday, it is the end of this conflict and then we just got to get oil flowing again and what a journey uh uh this this has been and we started off by saying if this thing lasts past March 21st, something went wrong, but if it goes past the second week of June, where are we?
Second week of June.
Second week of June. — It's like the, you know, we start to get the Mad Max uh discussion. So, uh uh hopefully this is it and we can push forward with this. — Right, so we got that uh news. Trump announced it on Sunday. It was widely expected, right?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rates
- fed week
- iran deal
- housing market
- interest rate outlook
Watch the episode
Watch “Will mortgage rates drop during Fed week?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from HousingWire Daily
-
Has housing demand already changed with lower rates? -
How midterms and jobs week will affect rates -
Preparing for Q1 growth in reverse mortgages -
A clear pathway to sub-7% mortgage rates for Thanksgiving? -
Mortgage rates, inflation and those homeowner vacancy numbers -
What did the Fed meeting mean for mortgage rates?
HousingWire Daily, this episode and its artwork belong to HousingWire. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
