Episode summary
Fed week preview and mortgage rates
HousingWire Daily
· · 25 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that mortgage rates are being driven less by the Fed meeting itself and more by the oil shock, the 10-year Treasury yield, and the wider bond-market reaction to the Iran conflict. He said the market has already priced in a rate hike, so the bigger issue for housing is whether the conflict and oil prices keep pushing yields higher or whether diplomacy cools the move. He also said Trump’s pressure on the Fed matters less than the bond market’s own reaction to inflation risk and geopolitical headlines.
For housing, Logan said rates above 7% are slowing demand again, but the market is in a healthier place than in 2023 because inventory is no longer at crisis lows and home-price growth has cooled. He said active inventory is up, new listings are softer, and pending sales usually weaken when rates move above the 6.64% to 7% zone. Even so, he emphasized that 2026 is not a collapse story: home sales are still expected to stay near 5 million, and affordability has improved enough that prices are no longer racing ahead of wages.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the market has already priced in a Fed hike, so the bigger driver for mortgage rates is the oil- and geopolitical-driven move in the 10-year yield.
- He said a 10-year yield around 5% implies roughly 7.13% to 7.18% mortgage rates under current spreads, which is why he is watching the oil chart closely.
- Mohtashami said rates above 7% are again slowing demand, with new listings and pending sales weakening as borrowing costs rise.
- He said housing is healthier than in 2023 because active inventory is higher and home-price growth is cooling toward or below wage growth.
- Mohtashami argued that the broader housing market is not in collapse and expects near 5 million total home sales despite the rate backdrop.
Notable quotes
“The market's already priced at a rate hike. That's not that's not going to be a shock”
“When rates get below 64 and head towards six, demand picks up. When rate gets above 6.64 and heads above seven, demand slows down and we go nowhere”
“if we hit the 5% tenure where the spreads are 713 718. We're 717 today”
“housing is in a just a healthier spot because active inventory is up”
“The problem is this conflict has created a variable chaos that it's very difficult when the Fed chairman doesn't talk”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Modami to talk about Trump, the Iran War, mortgage rates, and housing data. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending articles on housingwear.com.
First is the tracker. Housing market faces headwinds as mortgage rates move above 7%. Followed by Colorado Riverwater cuts are coming.
What will they mean for housing? Then we have DSCR loans are booming amid fragmented underwriting standards and seller impersonation fraud more than doubled since 2024. Finally, we have Airbnb pledges $250 million to jumpstart stalled housing projects.
Okay, we are ready to dive in. Logan, welcome back to the podcast. It is wonderful to be here and Sarah Wheeler 30 seconds ago.
Make sure to let me ask questions. Yes, ma'am.
Sometimes you have a lot to say, which is good, but I also have a lot of questions. This is a big day.
Oh, yes. Um, today, uh, it's funny because we, the last podcast was talking about how the next three and a half months could, you know, the framework for 2027. Uh, the oil prices were up, 10-year yield was up, 10ear yield got above 5%.
which means when it goes below 5% we bring out the photo I survived the 5% 10ear yield and I brought this up in 2018 whenever the 10ear got above 3% all the doomers went it's over America's you know and to toughen men up in America we thought that every time it goes below you see you don't have to be so afraid of living in America anymore like back in the 1800s like people used to die of pneumonia people died very young more I mean there was all these it was very hard life back then but now you're living your single family home, you have 2G internet access, you have air conditioning.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed meeting preview
- mortgage rates
- iran conflict
- housing market headwinds
- mortgage rate reaction
Companies and tickers mentioned
- ABNB
- Airbnb
Watch the episode
Watch “Fed week preview and mortgage rates” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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