Episode summary
How I Invest $9 Billion into VC & Private Equity
How I Invest With David Weisburd
· · 40 min · Hosts: David Weisburd · Guests: Christopher Vogt
Summary
Christopher Vogt argues that AI is both a material risk and a major opportunity across portfolios. He thinks software-heavy private equity could face an adjustment period, but says not all SaaS will be disrupted and that AI may also boost productivity, create new opportunities, and reshape biotech, industrials, and utilities over time. He also expects structurally higher inflation and higher long-term rates, and said he does not see inflation returning below 2% in the next 10 to 15 years.
He explains why his organization organizes assets by risk rather than by traditional labels, with equity, credit and fixed income, and real assets under one roof. That structure, he says, avoids duplicated optimizations and reflects the reality that equity beta can sit in public equity, private equity, hedge funds, and credit strategies.
A large part of the conversation is about manager selection. Vogt says quantitative tools matter, but models are always flawed and cannot replace qualitative diligence, especially reference checks, office visits, and conversations with people below the partner level. He also emphasizes patience in private markets, vintage diversification, and the importance of sizing positions correctly because mistakes are inevitable but a badly sized mistake can do real damage.
Key takeaways
- Vogt sees AI as a cross-portfolio risk and opportunity, with particular pressure on software-related private equity and upside in productivity and biotech.
- He expects structurally higher inflation and says he does not see the U.S. returning below 2% inflation in the next 10 to 15 years.
- His team organizes capital by risk buckets, not asset labels, because equity beta shows up across public equity, private equity, hedge funds, and credit.
- For manager selection, Vogt relies on both quant screens and qualitative work, especially reference calls, office visits, and consistency across an organization.
- He believes position sizing matters more than being right on any single investment because a large mistake can be career-ending.
Notable quotes
“AI risk is super topical. Obviously, you know, aside from private credit, which I don't manage and is well publicized in in the media”
“I think software related private equity could see an adjustment period. You know, the AI risk is real”
“I don't see us going back down below 2% inflation in the next 10 to 15 years”
“Our uh CIO chose prior to my arrival had nothing to do with it uh to organize us by risk assets”
“models are extremely useful, don't get me wrong. Um but one should always consider what is the logic of the model”
How the episode opens
Chris, you run equity strategies at the Margaret A. Cargill Foundation. What part of the equity market keeps you up at night today?
Being an investor or an allocator. You kind of paranoid in general. Uh so I would say everything, but um but to be more specific, I would say that AI risk is super topical.
Obviously, you know, aside from private credit, which I don't manage and is well publicized in in the media. Uh I think software related private equity could see an adjustment period. You know, the AI risk is real.
I think CEOs of SAS businesses should be very scared of being disrupted. Um, you know, the the critical part here is making sure that if you're invested in private equity that you have a very good general partner. On the other hand, OpenAI came out in fall of 2022.
Um, so it's not new. Deep Seek made their announcement in early 25. Uh, so hopefully good GPS are aware of uh of risks to traditional SAS.
Um, and depending on the asset, not all SAS is going to be disrupted anytime soon. think of like system of record, critical software, compliance software, highly sensitive data. The other thing is today there's going to be a lot of opportunities because everybody's aware of the AI risk.
So, so I think there's going to be a lot of stuff that's coming through the pipe right now that that could be quite interesting. And lastly, I would say top 10 tech companies in the US today are I think on average something like 35 years old. So they've gone through desktop, laptop, mobile, SAS, cloud.
And so not all these companies are going to disappear out of the blue. And on the other hand, it could be an incredible productivity boost and that might help help uh asset prices long term.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai disruption
- portfolio construction
- manager selection
- public vs private markets
- venture capital diligence
Watch the episode
Watch “How I Invest $9 Billion into VC & Private Equity” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from How I Invest With David Weisburd
-
Hunter Walk: Why Venture is Getting Harder, Picking Great Founders, and Investing Against Consensus -
True Anomaly’s Even Rogers on Space Warfare, China’s Military Advantage, and the Defense Tech Boom -
Finding the Next Anthropic, Quantifying Venture Capital, and the Science of Picking Winners -
Why 95% of AI Projects Fail, Anthropic still at $2T?, and Why AI Is Still in the First Inning -
Peter Thiel's 27-Year Partner on the AI Bubble, the Venture Capital Crisis, and the PayPal Mafia -
Why Venture Is Eating Public Markets, Picking Great VCs, and the AI Boom w/Brijesh Jeevarathnam
How I Invest With David Weisburd, this episode and its artwork belong to David Weisburd. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
