Episode summary
The Private Equity Firm of 2030 (What it Looks Like)
How I Invest With David Weisburd
· · 39 min · Hosts: David Weisburd · Guests: Sam Tidswell-Norrish
Summary
Private equity is shifting from a mostly fund-raising and product distribution business toward a more technology-enabled performance business, but Sam Tidswell-Norrish argues performance still has to remain the core product. He says firms that become too focused on asset gathering and fees risk losing sight of what LPs actually want: returns. He also argues the industry is moving through three layers of innovation: front office origination and distribution, portfolio-company value creation, and back-office automation.
At Access Holdings, that philosophy shows up in a lower middle market strategy built around deep research, data, and hands-on operating support. Sam describes AI tools that help generate target lists, score businesses, and build market maps, while portfolio data flows into Snowflake for store-level analysis, predictive pricing, and operational tweaks. He says these tools do not replace judgment; they make teams faster, better prepared, and more empathetic in winning deals.
Looking ahead to 2031, Sam expects human beings to stay central, but not in a headcount-heavy model. He thinks the winners will combine technology, relationships, and specialized product design, especially as capital distribution broadens into retail and wealth channels. He also stresses that curiosity, tenacity, and relationships matter more than ever in a market where new niches can be mastered quickly.
Key takeaways
- Sam Tidswell-Norrish says private equity’s core product is still performance, not asset gathering, and warns that fee-driven thinking can become dangerous.
- He says Access Holdings competes by focusing on the lower middle market, where alpha is more available but requires a labor-intensive model.
- Sam says Access uses AI to build thesis reports, one-to-one target lists, and portfolio analytics that can drill down to store-level operating data.
- He expects the industry to be reshaped by AI, but says human decision-making and relationship management will remain essential.
- Sam says curiosity, EQ, and tenacity matter in hiring, and that people who embrace new products can become experts faster than established incumbents.
Notable quotes
“performance is more important than ever. And we need the industry often needs to remind itself what its core product is. This product is performance”
“I do believe that the ability to create alpha at the smaller end of the market is is so much more um prevalent, but it does require um an incredibly hands-on, incredibly labor intensive uh model”
“AI doesn't do all the thinking for you. Now, it can help prompt ideas”
“Human beings won't be replaced. Someone needs to be doing the prompting um and coordinating the technology, but it looks very different”
How the episode opens
Last time we chatted you said that there's a lot of innovation going on in private equity. What exactly is innovating? — I would think about innovation in three buckets. The front office bucket which is origination product distribution. Uh a middle bucket which is the portfolio company value creation component and then the third which is uh back office. And I think the most innovative people in the industry have probably been the biggest private equity firms today. The Apollo's the Blackstones. Um, the people that that grew the fastest were the ones that innovated the quickest.
Which part is the chicken, which part is the egg? Did they grow because they were innovative or did were they innovative because they had the budget? — Uh, that's a very good question. Uh, it's probably a bit of both. One feeds the other. Um, but but these are firms that have been innovating in the product area very quickly. Um, and and you look at an Apollo that built um super innovative retirement services business in Athen. That's now the largest writer of annuities products globally. that was hyper innovative. So I I think it it comes down to culture a lot of the time.
Speaking of innovation, I had the former partner of David Rubenstein, Carile, and he told me the story about how David Rubenstein was the first partner to actually say, "Well, we could have two strategies in one firm. Back then it was you have a real estate fund or you have a private equity fund or you have a credit fund. And no one had ever thought to have two different lines in a single fund.
you you have to think like that the these days, but it's also important to stay true to what your north star is and and your vision.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- private equity performance vs asset gathering
- ai in deal sourcing and portfolio operations
- lower middle market alpha
- culture and relationships in investing
- private equity future and media companies
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Access Holdings
- Motive Partners
- OPUS
Watch the episode
Watch “The Private Equity Firm of 2030 (What it Looks Like)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from How I Invest With David Weisburd
-
Hunter Walk: Why Venture is Getting Harder, Picking Great Founders, and Investing Against Consensus -
True Anomaly’s Even Rogers on Space Warfare, China’s Military Advantage, and the Defense Tech Boom -
Finding the Next Anthropic, Quantifying Venture Capital, and the Science of Picking Winners -
Why 95% of AI Projects Fail, Anthropic still at $2T?, and Why AI Is Still in the First Inning -
Peter Thiel's 27-Year Partner on the AI Bubble, the Venture Capital Crisis, and the PayPal Mafia -
Why Venture Is Eating Public Markets, Picking Great VCs, and the AI Boom w/Brijesh Jeevarathnam
How I Invest With David Weisburd, this episode and its artwork belong to David Weisburd. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
