Episode summary
Deep Dive on Garbage | Barron's Streetwise
Summary
The episode argues that the obesity-drug market still has room to grow, even after a big run-up in Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. The host says CVS Caremark’s decision to prefer Novo’s weight-loss drug over Lilly’s should only cause a modest, temporary dent to Lilly’s growth, because Lilly is still adding patients quickly and has other catalysts ahead.
The larger bull case is that Lilly may keep extending its lead with newer therapies. The host highlights a triagonist in development that could be even more effective than Zepbound, and a small-molecule pill, Orforglipron, that could be about as effective as Novo’s injection while being cheaper, easier to distribute, and usable in more markets. The host frames the category as potentially growing from $15 billion last year to $150 billion by 2035.
The second half shifts to waste and recycling, where Trevor Romeo of William Blair says the recent selloff has made the group more attractive. He argues the businesses deserve premium valuations because collection, landfills, recycling, and renewable natural gas are stable and vertically integrated, while landfill capacity is tightening as many sites age out. Romeo’s top pick is Casella Waste Systems, which he sees as a smaller, faster-growing pure-play with more room for M&A.
Key takeaways
- The host thinks CVS’s formulary shift away from Zepbound affects about 200,000 patients, but should only create a small, temporary growth headwind for Lilly.
- The host says Lilly’s Orforglipron could matter because a pill could be cheaper to make and distribute than injectable obesity drugs.
- Trevor Romeo says waste stocks are now trading at about an 8% premium to the S&P 500, below their 15% to 20% historical premium.
- Romeo says nearly half of U.S. landfills open today are expected to close by 2050, supporting pricing power for large operators.
- Romeo’s top pick is Casella Waste Systems because it remains a pure-play operator with more M&A runway and faster total growth potential.
Notable quotes
“The main push back we get from investors on these names when we recommend them is usually just the valuations are high”
“The CVS change will affect around 200,000 Zepbound patients”
“Morgan Stanley predicts it will hit $150 billion by 2035”
“at this point, the premium you've seen the waist companies trade at the last 3 to 5 years on average, you're actually below that now”
“almost half of all the landfills that are open today are expected to close by 2050”
How the episode opens
The main push back we get from investors on these names when we recommend them is usually just the valuations are high. You don't tend to see that many really obvious attractive entry points. So whenever you get a pullback like this, it tends to be a pretty good buying opportunity.
Hello and welcome to the Baron Street Wise podcast. I'm Jack How. The voice you just heard, that's Trevor Romeo.
He's an analyst covering waste and recycling at William Blair. This week's episode is all about garbage. Isn't that every week?
I hear you thinking, "No, and that's very hurtful. We're going to talk about landfills and margins and recycling, all of it. First, we'll have a few words to say about the latest on obesity meds.
That's next. Listening in is our audio producer, Alexis. Hi, Alexis.
Hey, Jack. late July in New York City. You're in New York City.
I lived there for many, many years. What is the uh what's the trash situation like? Because when I was there, what used to happen?
I this was like garbage season this time of year because in New York they pile the bags sometimes like right on the sidewalk and the pile can get pretty high at certain times of the week. And in the hot months, in the hot months, you can get um you know, you could
There's a stink — A little bit sometimes, depending where you are. Sometimes you see a little river of garbage juice in the the side of the street. There's all kinds of wacky things going on. — I mean, I know you want me to say that nothing has changed since you've lived here, but it's gotten better.
It's gotten better because of the rat zar.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- garbage
- weight loss drugs
- cvs
Companies and tickers mentioned
- CVS
- CVS Health
Watch the episode
Watch “Deep Dive on Garbage | Barron's Streetwise” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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