$200M
Market Model 74.0% 64.2%
$300M
Market Model 68.0% 57.5%
Pre-Market Markets
Active Markets (9)
$500M
Market Model 71.0% 71.5%
$800M
Market Model 43.0% 41.1%
Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch? Polymarket
$700M
Market Model 7.0% 7.4%
$1B
Market Model 5.0% 5.3%
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? Polymarket
$300M
Market Model 41.0% 34.0%
$500M
Market Model 20.0% 16.6%
Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch? Polymarket
$100M
Market Model 19.0% 14.7%
$50M
Market Model 23.0% 17.7%
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? Polymarket
$500M
Market Model 9.6% 3.4%
$1B
Market Model 9.0% 3.2%
Will Base launch a token by ___ ? Polymarket
December 31, 2026
Market Model 10.0% 3.5%
September 30, 2026
Market Model 2.2% 0.8%
Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ? Polymarket
September 30
Market Model 2.7% 0.9%
December 31, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 2.1%
$2,000,000,000+
Market Model 17.0% 11.2%
$5,000,000,000+
Market Model 15.0% 9.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? Top outcome: $200M | 74.0% | 64.2% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? Top outcome: $500M | 71.0% | 71.5% | High | 61 | Refresh |
| Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch? Top outcome: $700M | 7.0% | 7.4% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? Top outcome: $300M | 41.0% | 34.0% | High | 59 | Refresh |
| Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch? Top outcome: $100M | 19.0% | 14.7% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? Top outcome: $500M | 9.6% | 3.4% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Will Base launch a token by ___ ? Top outcome: December 31, 2026 | 10.0% | 3.5% | High | 55 | Refresh |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ? Top outcome: September 30 | 2.7% | 0.9% | High | 59 | Refresh |
| What will Opensea FDV be at 1 day after launch? Top outcome: $2,000,000,000+ | 17.0% | 11.2% | High | 64 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (4)
MegaETH airdrop by...? Polymarket
December 31, 2026
Market Model 21.0% 7.7%
September 30
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Pump.fun airdrop by ....? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
Above $5,000,000,000
Market Model 9.0% 7.0%
Above $2,000,000,000
Market Model 13.0% 10.1%
Yes
Market Model 20.0% 14.4%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MegaETH airdrop by...? Top outcome: December 31, 2026 | 21.0% | 7.7% | High | 54 | |
| Pump.fun airdrop by ....? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 10.0% | 5.0% | High | 58 | |
| What will MegaETH FDV be at 10:00 AM ET 1 day after launch? Top outcome: Above $5,000,000,000 | 9.0% | 7.0% | High | — | |
| Will GTE deploy on MegaETH mainnet day 1? Yes refers to: Yes | 20.0% | 14.4% | Med | — |
