Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/9 - 11/15)

Official monthly reports for Suez Canal traffic recovery are unavailable. Specific monthly transit figures from the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) or Drewry for October and November 2026 are not yet verifiable, as relevant press releases containing this data could not be located ^[1][2]. However, weekly market resolutions from IMF PortWatch indicate that Suez Canal traffic during October and early November 2026 recovered to levels near or exceeding pre-crisis weekly norms ^[3][4][2].

Suez Canal traffic showed a clear recovery trend in October. Reconstructed data from IMF PortWatch reveals a recovery trajectory for October and early November 2026. Pre-crisis weekly norms typically ranged from 300 to 350 transits per week, equivalent to approximately 43 to 50 transits per day ^[3][4][2]. During the week of October 12–18, traffic resolved 'Above 300' (300–310 transits), signaling a return to a pre-crisis daily pace of about 43–44 transits ^[1]. While a dip occurred, with October 26–November 1 showing 'Above 280' (280–290 transits) ^[5], traffic rebounded strongly in the week of November 2–8. This period resolved 'Above 310', with probabilities suggesting 310–320 transits, which is at or above the pre-crisis daily average of 44–46 transits ^[2].

Recovery continued into November, nearing the upper pre-crisis range. The week of November 9–15 recorded 4Search's implied median of 328.9 transits. This translates to roughly 47 transits per day, indicating sustained recovery towards the upper end of the pre-crisis range ^[3][2]. However, expectations for the latter part of November suggest a modest slowdown, with Polymarket's related 7-day-average market for November 30 pricing '42+' (approximately 294 or more transits per week) at 73% ^[6].

Resumption of major container services significantly increased Nov 9-15 transit volume expectations. Major container lines, including Evergreen and Maersk, have resumed Suez services, leading to a substantial upward revision in expected transit volumes for the November 9-15 resolution week. The market quickly adjusted to these resumption-driven transits, with the market-implied median for the November 9-15 week increasing by approximately 37 transits, or about 13%, from 292.3 on November 9 to 328.9 by November 13-14 ^[1]. This rapid repricing is further demonstrated by the 'Above 300' probability, which surged from 34% on November 10 to approximately 82-90% by November 13-14, alongside notable 24-hour shifts for 'Above 310' and 'Above 320' on November 13 ^[2][3].

Weekly transit volumes show a clear ramp, but future projections indicate normalization. This upward trend for the November 9-15 week follows a distinct week-over-week volume increase, with the October 26-November 1 week resolving at 280-289 transits and the November 2-November 8 week resolving at 310-319 transits ^[5][6]. As of November 14, 2026, the anticipated total for the November 9-15 week is around 320-330 transits ^[4]. However, the forward market for the subsequent week, November 16-November 22, suggests a partial return to normal levels. For this later period, the 'Above 300' probability is priced at approximately 65% and 'Above 310' at around 38%, indicating that the peak of the resumption spike is likely approaching its end ^[7][8].

The market's median forecast for transit vessels is approximately 320 ^[1]. This projection for the week of November 9–15 is supported by the cumulative actual daily counts from IMF PortWatch, which caused the market-implied median to increase ^[1]. Further evidence comes from the preceding week, November 2–8, where the total IMF PortWatch count exceeded 310 vessels, establishing a baseline run-rate of approximately 44–45 transits per day ^[2]. Within the Kalshi market, which settles based on the sum of daily transit calls reported by IMF PortWatch, significant event volume was concentrated in the range of approximately 320–330 vessels for this period ^[1][4][5].

Market-implied medians have consistently risen, reflecting updated data ^[1]. Specifically, the market-implied median for the week of November 9–15 climbed from 292.3 on November 9 to 328.9 according to the latest 4Search reading ^[1]. As of November 14, 2026, PredictPedia indicated the 50/50 line for Kalshi prices to be between 320 and 330, suggesting a median of approximately 325–329 vessels ^[3]. A Prediction Ticker snapshot from November 13, 2026, also showed a median of approximately 320, with traders revising their forecasts upward as new daily data became available ^[6]. The heaviest single-contract volume observed on the 'Above 330' rung further reinforces that informed traders converged on the approximately 320–330 range ^[1][3][2].

IMF PortWatch data lags official Suez Canal Authority statements. The IMF PortWatch dataset typically reports data with an approximate two-day delay after the end of a period ^[1][2][3]. In contrast, official statements from the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) release transit counts much more rapidly, usually on the same day or the following day ^[3]. For example, complete PortWatch data for the period of November 9-15, 2026, would likely become available around November 17, 2026, demonstrating this consistent two-day lag ^[1][2].

PortWatch figures undergo revisions due to differing methodologies. Beyond the reporting timeline, PortWatch figures are also subject to post-publication revisions ^[1][2][3]. The methodologies employed by PortWatch and the SCA differ, leading to potential discrepancies in reported counts. PortWatch calculates daily figures by counting total transit calls across various ship types using an AIS-based classification system, which can result in different tallies compared to the SCA's official definitions ^[3]. However, the available research does not quantify a specific numerical discrepancy between SCA and PortWatch figures for the November 9-15, 2026 week ^[1][3].

Crude tanker traffic recovery in the Suez Canal outpaced containerships by August 2026. Crude tanker volumes had nearly returned to pre-Houthi levels during this period ^[2]. This recovery contributed to an overall Suez Canal traffic increase of 28% year-on-year by August 2026, reaching 1,232 vessels, largely due to tanker rerouting linked to the Hormuz crisis ^[2]. Lloyd's List Intelligence reported that crude tanker Suez transits numbered 194 in January 2026, an increase from 178 in January 2025 ^[1][2].

Containership traffic recovery, however, remained gradual and below 2023 averages. In contrast to crude tankers, container and vehicle carrier traffic in August 2026 remained significantly below 2023 averages ^[2][1][3]. Egyptian Rear Admiral Gryparis noted that containership traffic had not fully returned to pre-crisis levels, and operators would require at least three months to reschedule contracts ^[1][3]. Weekly Suez containership transits were approximately 44 during the week of July 27–August 2, 2026 ^[1][3].

Specific Drewry containership traffic data for Q4 2026 was not located. The available search results did not include Drewry-specific containership traffic data for the fourth quarter of 2026 ^[1][2].

Market probabilities for Suez Canal traffic suggest approximately 42–43 vessels per day. Kalshi's Suez Canal weekly market for November 9–15 indicates a 98.5% implied probability for Above 260, 270, and 280 transits, with $194.1K total volume ^[1]. A Gaduin market for 297+ ships in the same period is evenly split at 50% Yes / 50% No ^[2]. Polymarket's market for November 16–22, 2026, prices 300+ transits at 52% and 290+ at 73% ^[3]. October 2026 Suez traffic reached 1,338 transits / 125.6m dwt, a 63% year-over-year increase, but remained 34% below the pre-Houthi-crisis average of 2,009 transits/182m dwt monthly from January–November 2023 ^[4]. SCA-reported data showed 1,490 transits and 88m net tonnage, up 32% and 86% month-over-month, respectively ^[5]. Evergreen's 16,556 TEU Ever Eon completed its first Suez transit in nearly three years on November 7–8, 2026 ^[6]. Premier Alliance's Asia–Mediterranean MD1 service resumed Suez routing with YM Trust loading at Ningbo on November 10 ^[7].

Security remains a factor, though UKMTO reports no Red Sea attacks since August 24, 2026; a large unexplained explosion was observed in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on November 6 ^[4]. The Strait of Hormuz experienced sustained Iranian mine/projectile attacks November 10–13 ^[4], reinforcing the Suez/Red Sea as an alternative oil route ^[4]. MSC re-announced Piracy Risk Surcharge and Suez Canal Surcharge, totaling $91/TEU, effective November 15, 2026 ^[8][9], coinciding with MARAD advisory 2026-013 on Red Sea risks ^[10]. Flexport forecasts arriving vessel capacity at 131% of normal at North Europe ports in week 47 (November 16–22), with 31 containerships via Suez versus 61 via Cape, signaling congestion risk for at least three weeks between mid-November and January ^[10]. Freight rates are declining; Drewry's composite index fell 1% to $4,389/FEU on November 5 ^[11]. Suez transits reduce Asia–Europe transit times from approximately 36 days via Cape to approximately 26 days, releasing roughly 10% global effective capacity ^[11][6]. The Suez Canal Authority chairman expects $5.8–6.0bn for full-year 2026 revenue ^[12][13]. A structural bearish tail risk exists from Houthi control of Mokha, Perim Island, and the Hanish Islands (September 10–11, 2026), granting the ability to mine or blockade Bab el-Mandeb ^{[14][15][16][4]}. Conversely, a Hormuz closure acts as a net bullish driver for Suez tanker traffic, with Bab el-Mandeb oil flows increasing from 5.4m bpd in Q4 2025 to 8.1m bpd in Q2 2026 ^[17][15][16].