Short Answer

Rick Jackson is favored to secure a larger gubernatorial margin in the November 3, 2026 election. The market prices this outcome at 91.0%, notably above the model's 67.1%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No specific development appears to coincide with the market’s largest move, an 82.0 percentage point spike for a "Rick Jackson" resolution on November 12, 2026. This repricing, from 9.0% to 91.0%, was a sharp correction that aligned the contract with the final outcome. Per election data, Rick Jackson secured the larger signed margin. Both candidates lost their respective races, with Jackson's margin of -8.6 points being reported as larger than Joe Lombardo's -7.6 points based on the contract's specific resolution criteria.
Earlier price action reflected a market that initially anticipated a Lombardo win. On November 3, 2026, as preliminary election results were reported from Georgia and Nevada, Jackson's probability dropped 10.0 points. This decline accelerated the next day with a 27.0 point drop. The driver was the Associated Press calling the Nevada race for Aaron Ford, which finalized Lombardo's margin and allowed for a direct comparison against incoming results for Jackson. The market's initial interpretation of this data clearly favored Lombardo before the sharp reversal on November 12.
  • Rick Jackson's larger margin is the market favorite, pending final certified results.
  • Decision Desk HQ data currently indicate Joe Lombardo's margin was algebraically larger.
  • Certification expected around December 7, 2026, allows for shifts from reported figures.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Rick Jackson 91.0% 67.1% Official certified results are not yet finalized, allowing for theoretical shifts from reported figures.
Joe Lombardo 24.0% 32.9% Decision Desk HQ results indicate Joe Lombardo's margin was algebraically larger than Rick Jackson's.

Current Context

Preliminary reports indicated Rick Jackson's loss margin was approximately −8.6 points, while Joe Lombardo's was about −7.6 points, suggesting Jackson's margin was roughly 1.0 point less negative [1][2][3]. The contract's terms specify a comparison of each named candidate’s signed margin relative to their highest-finishing opponent, a critical distinction given both candidates were behind in their respective races [4][5].
Unofficial election counts for Georgia and Nevada showed these specific loss margins. In Georgia, unofficial counts indicated Keisha Lance Bottoms with 54.3% to Rick Jackson's 45.7%, an 8.6-point Democratic lead with approximately 363,000 votes counted to 99% [1][2][3][6]. Unofficial Nevada Governor race counts showed Aaron Ford at about 51.6% against Joe Lombardo's 44.0%, a 7.6-point Democratic lead with a roughly 82,700-vote margin [2][7][8]. Prediction markets initially favored Lombardo pre-election. Post-election, displayed prices diverged: Kalshi and PredictPedia showed about 96.5% for Lombardo, while Public indicated roughly 91% for Jackson, suggesting venue, timestamp, or display differences warrant verification before accepting definitive odds [9][4][5]. Election day was November 3, 2026, with Nevada mail ballots eligible through November 7 and signature cures through November 9. County canvass completion was due November 13, and the comparison market was expected to resolve around December 7 following certification [7][4][5].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Live: Gubernatorial Election Results 2026: NPRnpr.org
  2. 2Governor 2026 election results | Movement Voter Projectmovement.vote
  3. 3US Governor Election Results by State 2026 | Winners, Party Flips, Margins & Key Facts - The World Datatheworlddata.com
  4. 4Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  5. 5Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  6. 6Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms fends off GOP Rick Jackson in Georgia’s governor’s racenbcnews.com
  7. 7Aaron Ford Wins the Nevada Governor Racevantagepredictions.com
  8. 82026 Nevada Governor General Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 November 12, 2026: 82.0pp spike

Price increased from 9.0% to 91.0%

Outcome: Rick Jackson

What happened: No explicit primary driver for the 82.0 percentage point market spike for "Rick Jackson" on November 12, 2026, has been identified in the available sources [1][2][3]. Reported 2026 election results indicate Governor Lombardo's margin was approximately -7.6 points and Rick Jackson's was approximately -8.6 points, making Lombardo the outcome with the numerically larger margin according to market definitions [4][5][6][7]. Consequently, without specific reports of social media posts, news, or events coinciding with the spike, social media activity cannot be confirmed as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or even a relevant factor for this movement [1][2][3].

📉 November 04, 2026: 27.0pp drop

Price decreased from 47.0% to 20.0%

Outcome: Rick Jackson

What happened: The primary driver of the 27.0 percentage point drop for the "Rick Jackson" outcome on November 04, 2026, was the official announcement of the Nevada gubernatorial election results, which allowed for a definitive comparison of margins. The Associated Press called the Nevada race for Aaron Ford at 4:46 a.m. ET on November 4, 2026, confirming incumbent Joe Lombardo's 7.5 percentage point loss margin [8]. This news enabled a clear comparison with Rick Jackson's 8.6 percentage point loss margin in Georgia, which had largely been established following his concession on November 3 [4][9]. The market's drop likely reflected an adjustment of expectations, as the 1.1 percentage point difference between Jackson's and Lombardo's margins may have been narrower than the market previously anticipated. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific price movement, with no impactful posts or narratives identified coinciding with the drop.

📉 November 03, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 57.0% to 47.0%

Outcome: Rick Jackson

What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point drop for the "Rick Jackson" outcome was the real-time reporting of preliminary election results for the Georgia and Nevada gubernatorial races on November 3, 2026 [10][11]. As election returns emerged, market perception likely shifted regarding the exact margins of loss for Rick Jackson and Joe Lombardo, whose final difference was a narrow 1.0 percentage point [5][12][11]. While the market initially favored Jackson to have the larger margin, incoming data on election night likely indicated a smaller-than-anticipated margin for Jackson or a closer contest than expected, causing the significant dip in confidence [3]. The available research explicitly states it does not verify a discrete social media event causing this specific movement [13][14][15][16].
Sources (16)
  1. 1Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  2. 2Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4U.S. Governor Midterm Elections 2026 Live Results - NBC Newsnbcnews.com
  5. 5Governor 2026 election results | Movement Voter Projectmovement.vote
  6. 6Georgia governor results 2026: Bottoms vs. Jacksonelectoralmeridian.org
  7. 7Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  8. 8Democrats flip key governorships in US midterms as Republicans retain Floridaaa.com.tr
  9. 9Jackson concedes governor’s race to Bottomsthesoutherneronline.com
  10. 10Georgia elects nation's first Black female governor - UPI.comupi.com
  11. 112026 governor’s race results: all 36 states | US Midterm 2026usmidterm2026.com
  12. 12US Governor Election Results by State 2026 | Winners, Party Flips, Margins & Key Facts - The World Datatheworlddata.com
  13. 13Analysis: Big-spending candidates can't overcome dissatisfaction with Trump, GOPgpb.org
  14. 14Blue tide sweeps away $200 million-plus in Georgia GOP spending - The Currentthecurrentga.org
  15. 15Rick Jackson lost Georgia governor race to Trump attendance | Cobb County Heraldcobbcountyherald.com
  16. 16Healthcare staffing exec Rick Jackson falls short in race for Georgia’s governorshipstaffingindustry.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi prediction market, titled "Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson?", focuses on which candidate achieves a greater margin of victory in their respective gubernatorial election.

1. YES resolution: The contract resolves to YES if Joe Lombardo's margin of victory in the Nevada Governor election is strictly greater than Rick Jackson's margin of victory in the Georgia Governor election. 2. NO resolution: The contract resolves to NO if Rick Jackson's margin of victory in the Georgia Governor election is greater than or equal to Joe Lombardo's margin of victory in the Nevada Governor election. 3. Key dates/deadlines: The market has a maximum payout date of December 7, 2026. 4. Special settlement conditions: No specific settlement conditions or rules regarding data sources for determining margins of victory are detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Rick Jackson $0.05 $1.00 91%
Joe Lombardo $0.98 $0.05 24%

Market Discussion

The market overwhelmingly predicts that Joe Lombardo will achieve a larger margin of victory in his gubernatorial race compared to Rick Jackson. Current odds indicate only a 5% chance for Rick Jackson to secure the larger margin. This consensus appears to be driven by the "Race Intel" for the Georgia Governor election, which shows an extremely tight contest with Rick Jackson (R) polling at 47.7% against Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) at 47.6%, suggesting a very narrow margin in Jackson's race.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 69 Caution

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score77Good

Market integrity is low (65), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score34High Risk
Trust score69Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
65Caution

Outcome can be influenced

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Rick Jackson” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXLOMBARDOJACKSON-26DEC07-R-200 carried 37% of its $1,167 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 17d old)

Screened clean
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
34Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first

Rick Jackson34
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Joe Lombardo—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
80Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

2 contracts · worst first

Rick Jackson80
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Joe Lombardo—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Rick Jackson100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Joe Lombardo100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
34High Risk

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 34 (notional-weighted)

Rick JacksonPrimary34Market scoreLiquidity34Move quality80Rule clarity100
Why 34
Liquidity
34 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
80 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Joe Lombardo–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 13, 2026

6. How did Nevada's and Georgia's vote-counting procedures and certification deadlines in November 2026 impact the final reported margins for Joe Lombardo and Rick Jackson?

Official Vote DataNo certified November 2026 vote totals for Joe Lombardo or Rick Jackson [1][2][3][4]
Causal Claim EvidenceNo evidence that vote-counting procedures or certification deadlines altered final margins [1][2][3][4]
Market Price ReliabilityMarket prices should not substitute for official certification for final margins [1][5][6]
Official certified results for November 2026 are not yet available. Official records do not yet list certified November 2026 vote totals, percentages, canvass certificates, or final margins for Joe Lombardo in Nevada or Rick Jackson in Georgia [1][2][3][4]. Consequently, it is not currently possible to make an evidence-backed causal claim that vote-counting procedures or certification deadlines in either state altered the final reported margins for these candidates [1][2][3][4].
Assessing procedural impact requires official certified canvass documents. Any definitive conclusion regarding the impact of these election procedures or deadlines would necessitate access to the official certified canvass and the applicable statutory calendars [1][2][3][4]. Furthermore, an analysis of market data revealed inconsistencies, with one source suggesting Rick Jackson as likely and another showing Joe Lombardo as the leading outcome [1][5][6]. This discrepancy underscores that market prices are not a reliable substitute for official certification when determining final election margins [1][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  3. 3Nevada Governor Election Winner | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  4. 4Georgia Governor winner? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  5. 5Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  6. 6Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com

7. What were the final, certified election results for Joe Lombardo in Nevada and Rick Jackson in Georgia for the November 2026 gubernatorial races?

Market Resolution DirectionJoe Lombardo expected to win with a larger margin [1][2][3]
Kalshi Pricing (Nov 13, 2026)Joe Lombardo ~96.5%, Rick Jackson ~2.5% [1]
Another Kalshi Listing StatusJoe Lombardo 98¢, Rick Jackson 5¢ (99% votes counted) [2]
Final certified election results for the November 2026 gubernatorial races are not yet specified. The available research does not detail the final, certified election results or numerical margins for Joe Lombardo in Nevada or Rick Jackson in Georgia [1][2][3]. While the Georgia Secretary of State's results page confirms the existence of November 3, 2026, general election results, the specific gubernatorial candidate totals were not exposed in the search output. Furthermore, no comparable official results for Nevada were retrieved [3].
However, market indicators consistently suggested Joe Lombardo would secure a larger margin of victory. Market analysis consistently pointed towards a resolution favoring Joe Lombardo [1][2][3]. A Kalshi snapshot from November 13, 2026, showed pricing at approximately 96.5% for Joe Lombardo and 2.5% for Rick Jackson, indicating a substantial expected margin for Lombardo [1]. Another retrieved Kalshi listing, reflecting 99% of votes counted, priced Joe Lombardo at 98¢ and Rick Jackson at 5¢; however, this listing did not display certified vote totals or final margins [2]. The contract defines each margin as the candidate's certified vote percentage minus the highest-finishing other candidate's percentage, with Georgia's terms specifically including reported write-ins for the November 3 general election and excluding any runoff [4][1][5]. Therefore, based on the available evidence, the market's apparent resolution direction favored Joe Lombardo, but the precise final certified results and numerical margins remain unverified [1][2][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  2. 2Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  3. 3Election Resultsresults.sos.ga.gov
  4. 4Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  5. 5Will Rick Jackson's Georgia Governor margin be larger than Joe Lombardo's Nevada Governor margin in the November 3, 2026 general election? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com

8. What specific post-election events, such as ballot curing or county canvassing, could have altered the final margins for Lombardo and Jackson between November 3 and November 13, 2026?

Key Post-Election ProcessesCounty canvassing, provisional ballot inclusion, ballot curing [1][2][3]
Nevada County Certification MandateWithin days after the election [1][2][3]
Georgia Margin Alteration FactorsLate-counted provisional ballots and certification corrections [1][2][3]
Post-election processes critically shape final vote margins for candidates. Between November 3 and November 13, 2026, the final vote margins for Lombardo and Jackson could be altered by various vote certification and correction procedures. These critical post-election events include county canvassing, the integration of provisional ballots, and ballot curing to address defects in mail or absentee ballots [1][2][3]. This timeframe remains relevant for potential margin changes as long as the comprehensive certification process, encompassing county canvass completion, provisional ballot inclusion, ballot curing, and state-level certification, had not yet been finalized.
Nevada's Lombardo margin depends on various county-level actions. For Nevada, potential adjustments to Lombardo's final margin during this period would arise from the completion of certification by county canvass boards across the state's 17 counties, as mandated by Nevada law within days following the election. Additional factors include the counting of provisional ballots, the process of curing defective mail or absentee ballots, and any necessary recounts or corrections to vote tallies occurring prior to final certification. Following these county-level certifications, state-level certification by the Secretary of State would subsequently take place [1][2][3].
Georgia's Jackson margin influenced by ballot adjustments. In Georgia, Jackson's margin could have been influenced by the inclusion of late-counted provisional ballots and any adjustments made during the certification process before the initial certified results were established. This includes both county certification and the Secretary of State's canvass [1][2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  3. 3Will Rick Jackson's Georgia Governor margin be larger than Joe Lombardo's Nevada Governor margin in the November 3, 2026 general election? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com

9. What official data sources from the Nevada and Georgia Secretaries of State provide the final, certified vote totals for the 2026 gubernatorial elections?

Keisha Lance Bottoms (GA) Vote Share54.3% [1]
Aaron Ford (NV) Vote Share51.7% [2]
Georgia Gubernatorial MarginApproximately 9 points [3]
Keisha Lance Bottoms won Georgia's 2026 gubernatorial election with a clear majority. The certified results from the Georgia Secretary of State's office for the November 3, 2026 election indicated that Keisha Lance Bottoms secured 54.3% of the votes. Her opponent, Rick Jackson, received 45.7% [1]. This outcome resulted in an approximate 9-point vote margin [3].
Aaron Ford won Nevada's gubernatorial election; certified sources are not specified. In Nevada's 2026 gubernatorial race, Aaron Ford reportedly received 568,094 votes, accounting for 51.7% of the total. This led to an approximate 7-point margin of victory [2]. However, the available research did not specify official data sources from the Nevada Secretary of State that provided the final, certified vote totals for the 2026 gubernatorial election.
Sources (3)
  1. 1gps.press
  2. 2multistate.us
  3. 3multistate.us

10. How did final pre-election polling aggregates in Nevada and Georgia compare to the actual 2026 gubernatorial election outcomes for Lombardo and Jackson?

Georgia Polling Rick Jackson (initial)47.6% [1]
Georgia Polling Keisha Lance Bottoms (initial)47.4% [1]
Market Snapshot Lombardo Larger Margin96.5% [2]
Certified 2026 election results are unavailable for Georgia and Nevada. The certified 2026 gubernatorial election vote percentages for Nevada and Georgia are not yet available, nor is a final polling aggregate for Nevada [3][4][5][6]. This data absence prevents a full comparison of pre-election polling aggregates to actual election outcomes, meaning exact polling errors and election margins remain unverified [3][4][5][6].
Georgia pre-election polling indicated a narrow lead for Rick Jackson. For Georgia, pre-election polling showed Rick Jackson leading Keisha Lance Bottoms, initially at 47.6% versus 47.4%, which later adjusted to 47.7% versus 47.6% [1][7]. However, the certified 2026 Georgia vote percentages are not available to confirm the actual election outcome [3][4][5][6]. A market snapshot as of November 13 priced Joe Lombardo at 96.5% likelihood to achieve the larger gubernatorial margin outcome, indicating a significant lead over Rick Jackson [4][2]. The margin is defined as a candidate's share of total gubernatorial votes minus their highest-finishing opponent's share, based on certified results [4][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  3. 3Nevada Governor Election Winner | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  4. 4Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  5. 5Election Resultsresults.sos.ga.gov
  6. 6Nevada Secretary of State: Elections Results: Nyenvsos.gov
  7. 7Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  8. 8Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  9. 9Will Rick Jackson's Georgia Governor margin be larger than Joe Lombardo's Nevada Governor margin in the November 3, 2026 general election? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Pre-election market activity was driven by Georgia debate developments and polling, alongside reports of Nevada's economic weakness and tariffs [1][2]. Broader election-market engagement increased significantly as vote-count updates arrived on election night [3].
The market contract defined each candidate's margin as their vote share minus their highest-finishing opponent's share; a losing candidate's margin was negative, and an exact 0.00 difference resolved Lombardo Yes [4][5]. Based on DDHQ figures, Georgia's Bottoms held 54.34% to Jackson's 45.66%, while Nevada's Ford had 51.62% to Lombardo's 44.00% [6][7]. This resulted in Jackson's signed margin of -8.68 points and Lombardo's margin of -7.62 points [6][7]. Lombardo's margin was larger by 1.06 points, leading to Lombardo winning the comparison [6][7].
The event was listed for closure around December 7, 2026, with payment expected around December 8, 2026 [4][5]. Early expiration was possible after both races were certified [4][5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 07, 2027
  • Closes: December 07, 2026
Sources (7)
  1. 1Democrat Aaron Ford wins 2026 Nevada governor's race, defeating incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo - CBS Newscbsnews.com
  2. 22026 Governor Races: Prediction Market Odds for 5 Key Statesnextpredict.io
  3. 3Millions of dollars poured into prediction markets on election nightcnbc.com
  4. 4Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  5. 5Larger Governor margin: Lombardo or Jackson? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  6. 62026 Georgia Governor General Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 72026 Nevada Governor General Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com