Highest temperature in Atlanta on Nov 13, 2026?
Short Answer
The maximum temperature in Atlanta on November 13, 2026, is expected to fall between 52° and 53°F, supported by direct forecasts from AccuWeather and a downward revision in NWS forecasts to 53°F; the market prices this outcome at 56.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The primary driver of market movement was a sharp downward revision in weather forecasts for Atlanta's November 13 high temperature. Earlier expectations for a high near 70-71°F were abandoned after a secondary cold front brought significantly cooler air. Updated forecasts from multiple sources then consolidated in a much lower range. The National Weather Service projected a high near 54°F, while Timeanddate and AccuWeather forecast 55°F and 52°F, respectively.
This fundamental shift in expected weather conditions caused a repricing on November 13, with the contract's probability dropping from 12.0% to 6.0%. This move occurred on the day's highest volume of 491 contracts, showing conviction behind the reaction to the new forecasts. A subsequent partial recovery to 10.0% is not explained by any specific meteorological update in the available information and may reflect positioning within the now-established lower temperature paradigm.
- The 52-53°F range is favored by strong direct forecast support, including NWS at 53°F.
- Probability for 54-55°F dropped 10.0pp from recent overall cooler forecasts.
- Below 52°F may gain on reported bearish market drift and Freeze Watch catalysts.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51° or below | 7.0% | 8.2% | Polymarket shows higher probabilities for cooler outcomes, reinforced by bearish catalysts like gusty winds. |
| 54° to 55° | 32.0% | 25.4% | Recent cooler forecasts led to a probability drop, though some sources still show highs in this range. |
| 56° to 57° | 6.0% | 5.0% | NWS forecast trajectory revised downward, with all current forecasts remaining below this range. |
| 52° to 53° | 56.0% | 59.8% | Median forecasts and NWS trajectory align at 53°F, supported by a probability shift to cooler outcomes. |
| 60° or above | 1.0% | 0.8% | All current forecasts are significantly below this range, with strong bearish catalysts making it improbable. |
Current Context
Atlanta's high temperature on November 13, 2026, is forecast near 54°F. The National Weather Service (NWS) Peachtree City (KFFC) forecast for Friday, November 13, 2026, indicates an Atlanta high near 54°F (point temp 38/54), with sunny conditions and gusty northwest winds [1]. This temperature is well below normal, following a secondary cold front that brought substantially cooler air [1][2]. Timeanddate's extended forecast, updated November 12, 2026, projected Atlanta at 55/40°F and sunny [3]. AccuWeather forecast 52/36°F, and WeatherShogun showed 54/36°F [4][5]. These forecasts cluster at 52–55°F for the high [3][4][5]. The NWS issued a Freeze Watch for west and north Georgia on Saturday morning, November 14, with the season's first hard freeze expected by Sunday morning [1]. FOX 5's meteorologist reported Saturday morning wind chills in the 20s and possible mountain flurries Friday night into Saturday [6][2].
Prediction markets show strong consensus for a 52–55°F high temperature. Polymarket's "Highest temperature in Atlanta on November 13" market, with approximately $1.2K volume across 11 outcomes, listed 52–53°F as the leading range at 40.5–41%, followed by 54–55°F at 35.5%, and 50–51°F at 17% [7]. This market resolves based on the highest routine METAR temperature at KATL on November 13, 2026 [7]. Kalshi's market on the same event priced 52–53°F at 46% and 54–55°F at 41% (down 3 points), with 51°F or below at 6% and 56–57°F at 4% [8]. Trading on Kalshi began November 13 at 12:00 AM EST [8]. Lines.com analysis from November 11, 2026, indicated an implied probability of 51.5–52% for 52–53°F, against 26.5–27% for 50–51°F and 19–27% for 54–55°F [9]. This market had $9.1K volume and $23.4K liquidity, resolving via Aviation Weather Center METAR data or Weather Underground as fallback [9].
Prediction markets close today, awaiting official METAR resolution data. Forecasts were issued between November 12–13, 2026 [1][3]. Prediction market trading closes today, November 13, 2026; Kalshi's market closes at 7:00 AM ET, and Aries' low-temperature market closes at 11:59 PM ET [9][10]. Resolution for these markets occurs at the first METAR of November 14, 2026, or by 11:59 PM ET on November 13, whichever comes first [9][7]. Expected payout or results are between November 13–14, 2026 [9][7][10]. The actual observed daily high for November 13, 2026, is not yet available in search results, as the day is still in progress; the latest NWS roundup at 3 AM EST showed Atlanta at 47°F [11][1]. Market consensus and NWS point temperatures support an expected high of 52–54°F [1][7].
Sources (11)
- 1National Weather Service Forecast Productsw.daculaweather.com
- 2Atlanta Weather Forecast Sunny Thursday Weekend Freezehoodline.com
- 3Atlanta, Georgia, USA 14 day weather forecasttimeanddate.com
- 4Atlanta, GA Monthly Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 5Friday, November 13, 2026. Atlanta, GA - Weather Forecastweathershogun.com
- 6Frigid weekend, wind chills fall into the 20s | FOX 5 Atlantafox5atlanta.com
- 7Highest temperature in Atlanta on November 13: 52-53°F 41% - Polymarket Oddspolyinsider.io
- 8Highest temperature in Atlanta tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 9Atlanta High Temperature Market: Nov 13 | Lines.comlines.com
- 10Atlanta Daily Temperature Low 2026 Odds & Predictions | Ariesaries.com
- 11https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/as/asus42.kffc.rwr.ga.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 November 13, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 42.0% to 32.0%
Outcome: 54° to 55°
What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point drop for the "54° to 55°" outcome was a significant shift in Atlanta's weather forecasts for November 13, 2026 [1][2][3]. Earlier in the week, highs were around 70-71°F, but forecasts then indicated a substantial drop to approximately 54°F for the target date, accompanied by a weekend freeze warning [1][2][3]. This updated outlook, disseminated by traditional news and weather outlets, likely reduced the perceived probability of the "54° to 55°" outcome, causing its price to fall [1][2][3][4]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, as no specific posts or viral narratives from influential figures were apparent in the provided research.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "51° or below" market concerning Atlanta's highest temperature on November 13, 2026, a YES resolution occurs if the temperature is 51°F or less, and a NO resolution if it is greater than 51°F. Market expiration, anticipated by November 14, 2026, may be delayed if the Exchange finds a material error in the initial data publication. If corrected data is not available by the expiration date, or if no data is available, Kalshi will resolve markets to its last determined fair price.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52° to 53° | $0.57 | $0.45 | 56% |
| 54° to 55° | $0.33 | $0.68 | 32% |
| 51° or below | $0.09 | $0.93 | 7% |
| 56° to 57° | $0.05 | $0.96 | 6% |
| 58° to 59° | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| 60° or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
For November 13, 2026, various weather forecasts predict high temperatures ranging from 52°F to 55°F for Atlanta, with Groundhog Markets reporting a 53.0°F median [1]. Prediction markets on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Lines.com show 52–53°F as the market favorite (with implied probabilities around 40-50%), while 54–55°F is considered a substantial alternative [2]. The markets resolve based on the highest routine METAR temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (KATL) on Nov. 13 [3].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score73Good
Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score28Avoid
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score64Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. How do the final Nov 13, 2026, Atlanta high temperature forecasts from the NWS, AccuWeather, and Timeanddate compare, and what model differences could explain any discrepancies?
| Proxy forecast difference from NWS | 1-2°F [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Expected forecast spread | 1-2°F [1][2] |
| AccuWeather forecast tendency | 1-2°F warmer [1][2] |
Specific Atlanta temperature forecasts for November 13, 2026, are currently unavailable within the research. However, it is anticipated that AccuWeather and Timeanddate forecasts could differ from the National Weather Service (NWS) value by 1–2°F. This expected discrepancy is attributed to differences in the underlying models and station data used by each entity [1][2]. A consistent 1–2°F spread is generally expected among these three forecasting services, which aligns with existing market predictions [1][2].
Forecast discrepancies stem from varying meteorological methodologies and station locations. The NWS KANX forecast, which is considered the ground truth for market resolution, combines GFS, ECMWF, and HRRR models with forecaster guidance for the official CLIATL station [1][2]. AccuWeather, conversely, employs its own proprietary ensemble forecasting system, which frequently predicts afternoon high temperatures that are 1–2°F warmer [1][2]. Timeanddate typically displays output from a single global model, such as GFS or ICON, specifically for the Fulton County Airport–Brown Field station, which is located approximately 8–9 miles from downtown Atlanta [1][2][3].
7. What is the historical forecast error for the NWS's Peachtree City office and AccuWeather when predicting Atlanta's high temperature 1-2 days out in mid-November?
| Typical 1-2 day forecast error | Approximately 1-20F [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Recent market outcomes (Atlanta) | All landed in 20F bucket (Nov 1, Nov 2, Oct 8, Oct 3, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5] |
| NWS forecast trajectory Nov 13, 2026 | Downward revision from 570F to 530F, market odds 52-530F [3][6][7][8][9][10] |
Direct forecast values or formal verification statistics for mid-November 1-2 day Atlanta highs were not found in the available sources. Specifically, explicit AccuWeather forecast values or NWS/AccuWeather verification statistics (e.g., MAE) for mid-November 1-2 day Atlanta high temperatures were not available [3][6][7][8][9][10]. For the NWS Peachtree City office, the best available proxies for error include the forecast trajectory for November 13, 2026, which saw a downward revision from 57°F to 55°F to 53°F as the forecast matured. These revisions, alongside market odds centered around 52-53°F, provide the most relevant insight into potential forecast error in this context [3][6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Atlanta Weather on Nov 1, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
- 2Atlanta Weather on Nov 2, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
- 3Highest temperature in Atlanta on November 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4Atlanta Weather on Oct 8, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
- 5Atlanta Weather on Oct 3, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
- 6Highest temperature in Atlanta on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 7National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 8National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 9National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 10National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
8. What specific meteorological catalysts, such as stronger-than-expected winds or unexpected cloud cover, could cause the Nov 13 high to fall outside the consensus 52–55°F range?
| Strongest Market Signal (high temp) | 52–53°F [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Main Upside Alternative (high temp) | 54–55°F [1][2] |
| Lower Temperature Tail | 51°F or below [1][2] |
Temperature forecasts for November 13, 2026, show a narrow consensus. The strongest market signal for the highest temperature in Atlanta on November 13, 2026, is identified as 52–53°F. A primary upside alternative for this temperature forecast is 54–55°F. Additionally, smaller tails in the temperature distribution include possibilities of 51°F or below, and 56–57°F [1][2].
Specific meteorological catalysts for temperature deviation are not available. The available sources do not provide details on specific meteorological catalysts, such as stronger-than-expected winds or unexpected cloud cover, which could cause the high temperature on November 13, 2026, to deviate from the established 52–55°F consensus range. The cited market pages do not contain actual Atlanta hourly wind, cloud-cover, precipitation, or National Weather Service forecast-discussion values. Consequently, although catalyst thresholds should be approached qualitatively, specific details regarding these potential influences are absent from the provided information [1][2].
9. How are the hourly METAR temperature readings from Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport (KATL) on the morning of Nov 13, 2026 tracking against the day's forecast trajectory?
| Favored High Temperature Range | 52–53°F for Atlanta on Nov. 13, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| CoinRithm Probability for 52-53°F | 60.6% [1] |
| Frenzy Capital Probability for 52-53°F | 46% [2] |
Hourly METAR readings do not yet align with the day's temperature forecast. Available hourly METAR temperature readings from Hartsfield-Jackson Airport (KATL) for November 13, 2026, including 13°C at 0052Z on Nov. 13 and 14°C at 2352Z on Nov. 12, do not establish the local-morning trajectory against the day's forecast [3]. Prediction markets generally favor a high temperature range of 52–53°F for Atlanta on November 13, 2026, based on implied probabilities from early morning snapshots [1].
Prediction markets consistently favor a high temperature range of 52–53°F. Specific market data reveals that CoinRithm’s November 13, 2026 snapshot, dated 7:27 AM UTC, assigned a 60.6% implied probability to an Atlanta high of 52–53°F, with 54–55°F at 28% [1]. Frenzy Capital’s Kalshi-linked page listed 52–53°F as the favorite at 46%, followed by 54–55°F at 38%, and 51°F or below at 10% [2]. Frenzy’s climate-market overview initially listed Atlanta’s 52–53°F outcome at 48% [4], though its settling page later showed that range at 60%, indicating potential intraday market shifts [5]. It is important to note that these markets resolve using the maximum temperature in the NWS Atlanta daily climatological report, rather than solely relying on a single METAR observation [1].
Sources (5)
- 1Highest temperature in Atlanta on November 13, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Highest temperature in Atlanta on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?hours=2&ids=KATLaviationweather.gov
- 4Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
10. How do the implied odds on Kalshi and Polymarket for the '52° to 53°' vs. '54° to 55°' brackets compare, and what does trading volume suggest about where 'sharp money' is positioned?
| Kalshi 52-53 implied odds | 46% [1] |
|---|---|
| Polymarket 52-53 implied odds | 51% [2] |
| Kalshi 54-55 24-hour volume | $212 [1] |
The implied odds consistently favor the 52° to 53° temperature bracket. Across both Kalshi and Polymarket, the implied odds for the '52° to 53°' bracket are higher than for '54° to 55°', though substantial venue dispersion is evident [1][2]. On Kalshi, the '52° to 53°' bracket had implied odds of 46% compared to 38% for '54° to 55°' [1]. Polymarket data snapshots show '52° to 53°' at 51% versus 28% for '54° to 55°', with an alternative normalized estimate for a displayed Gemini market reporting '52° to 53°' at 60.6% and '54° to 55°' at 28% [2].
Kalshi's trading volume indicates stronger interest in the 54° to 55° bracket. The '54° to 55°' bracket on Kalshi showed significantly higher activity, with $212 in 24-hour volume and $179 in open interest [1]. This represents approximately 8.5 times the volume and 7.2 times the open interest of the '52° to 53°' bracket [1]. If volume and open interest serve as indicators for sharper positioning, this suggests greater commitment to '54° to 55°' than its headline odds imply [1]. However, this is suggestive rather than definitive proof of sharper positioning, as available data do not disclose trader identities, trade direction, or order-level aggressor information [1].
Polymarket's market quality and volume data prove less reliable for analysis. In contrast to Kalshi, Polymarket labels its market low quality, reporting zero traders and unknown liquidity [2]. Furthermore, discrepancies in overall 24-hour volume reporting across different listings caution against drawing over-precise conclusions from volume data [1][3].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Polymarket 'Highest temperature in Atlanta on November 13' market shows the 52–53°F bracket leading at 40.5%, a decline from 50% on Nov 11 [1]. This represents a bearish drift toward cooler outcomes [1]. The 54–55°F bracket follows at 35.5%, with 50–51°F at 17.0% [1]. Forecast consensus for Friday, November 13, places the high between 52–55°F, with groundhog.markets' median of 9 free forecasts at 53.0°F (spread 49.5–56.0°F) [2][3][4][5][6][7].
Key bullish catalysts for warmer temperatures include sunny and dry conditions, with a 0–10% chance of precipitation [8]. Thursday's warm-up to approximately 65°F and any upward revisions from NWS or the National Blend of Models could also drive prices higher [8]. Conversely, bearish factors supporting cooler outcomes involve NW winds at 10–15 mph gusting to 25 mph on Friday [8]. A sharp weekend cooldown is expected, with Saturday night lows around 33°F and the season's first hard freeze north of the city by Sunday [8]. A Freeze Watch is in effect for Peachtree City until 9 AM Sunday [9].
Market resolution relies on the highest hourly T-group of any routine METAR observation at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (KATL) on Nov 13, 2026 [1][10]. Trading on Polymarket's Atlanta Nov 13 board settles at 7:00 AM ET on Nov 13, 2026 [11][12]. NWS forecast updates and daily climate reports (CF6) are issued on Nov 12 [12]. The first METAR of the day on Nov 14 triggers resolution [12]. Kalshi's daily temperature contracts, which since August 2026 use The Weather Company's quality-controlled observations, have historically outperformed NOAA's National Blend of Models, indicating market prices are a strong real-time signal for the expected KATL high [9][13].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 20, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1Highest temperature in Atlanta on November 13: 52-53°F 41% - Polymarket Oddspolyinsider.io
- 2Atlanta, Georgia, USA 14 day weather forecasttimeanddate.com
- 3Friday, November 13, 2026. Atlanta, GA - Weather Forecastweathershogun.com
- 4Atlanta, GA Monthly Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
- 5Atlanta, GA weather forecastgroundhog.markets
- 6National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 7National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 8Atlanta Weather Forecast Sunny Thursday Weekend Freezehoodline.com
- 9Kalshi Weather Markets: Temperature, Snow and Hurricanesnextpredict.io
- 10How airport daily-high temperature markets settle, city by city · polyweather.todaypolyweather.today
- 11Global Temperature Markets 2026 | Qwidgetsqwidgets.com
- 12NYC High Temperature on November 13: 46-47°F Market | Lines.comlines.com
- 13Kalshi Weather Markets Beat NOAA's Forecast in 24 of 24 Cities — We Retired Our Modelpredictionmarketspicks.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHTATL-26NOV11-T76: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTATL-26NOV11-T69: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTATL-26NOV11-B75.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTATL-26NOV11-B73.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTATL-26NOV11-B71.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
