Short Answer

The market prices the highest temperature in New York City on November 13, 2026, at 52° to 53°F (66.0%), a view that diverges from early morning observations and general forecasts pointing to highs in the 40-49°F range due to a coastal low and cold northeast winds. The model similarly projects a lower probability for 52-53°F at 46.7%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's 53.0 percentage point spike on November 13 lacks a clear driver in the provided research. This price increase, implying higher odds of a temperature at or above 50°F, occurred despite conflicting information. Weather forecasts cited by multiple prediction market aggregators, including PolyZig and Lines, indicated a most likely outcome of 48-49°F. Other forecasts suggested colder daytime highs between 40-46°F due to a coastal storm system.
An earlier 12.0 percentage point spike on November 12 is also unexplained by available information. According to the research, no specific news or social media activity coincided with the move. This price action was also contrary to public forecasts from sources including ABC7, which predicted significant cooling for November 13. The market's overall upward trend is not supported by the available fundamental weather data.
  • 52° to 53° lacks support from 48-49°F observations and coastal low forecasts.
  • 49° or below is likely, reinforced by observations, cold forecasts, and related market.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
52° to 53° 66.0% 46.7% Early observations and forecasts predict 40-49°F highs due to a coastal low and cold winds.
49° or below 14.0% 30.9% Early observations and forecasts predict highs of 40-49°F due to a coastal low, rain, and cold winds.
50° to 51° 15.0% 18.8% Early morning readings of 48-49°F make a slight increase to 50-51°F plausible.
54° to 55° 2.0% 1.8% Early observations and forecasts predict 40-49°F highs due to cold, rainy conditions.
58° or above 1.0% 0.9% Observations and forecasts predict 40-49°F highs, well below 57°F, due to cold, rainy weather.

Current Context

Prediction markets largely favor 48-49°F for November 13, 2026. The most likely high temperature is approximately 48°F, though a precise official answer depends on the specific station [1][2][3][4]. PolyZig indicated 98% for a 48–49°F outcome, while Lines reported 93% for this range [5][2]. Lines also documented $3,117 in total event volume and $34,811 in combined liquidity [5]. The market officially resolves from routine KLGA METAR observations, using the highest qualifying hourly temperature on the local November 13 date, converted from Celsius and rounded to a whole Fahrenheit degree [5][2].
Early morning readings closely matched the market's leading bracket. At 1:00 a.m. EST, the NWS regional roundup reported 48°F at Central Park, 48°F at LaGuardia, and 49°F at Kennedy [3]. This established the eventual high was already near the market’s leading bracket early in the day [3]. Forecasts varied across sources and locations; ABC7 cited around 40°F for the city, NWS-derived Central Park guidance near 45°F, and AccuWeather listed a 47°F JFK high [1][6][7][4]. This spread explains why station-specific settlement, tied to KLGA for prediction contracts, is critical [1][2][3][4].
A coastal low brought rain and wind; temperatures were below historical highs. The weather pattern involved a coastal low moving east of Long Island, bringing periods of rain through Friday afternoon [1][8][9]. Gusts were around 20–30 mph in the metro area, with minor coastal-flooding risk [1][8][9]. Wet snow was possible mainly north and west of NYC [1][8][9]. Historically, the Central Park daily maximum for November 13 is 73°F [10]. Forecasted temperatures in the 40s would therefore be roughly 24–33°F below this record high [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1NYC weather: Coastal low picks up overnight, snow north & west Friday - ABC7 New Yorkabc7ny.com
  2. 2Highest temperature in NYC on November 13? 48-49°F 98% | PolyZigpolyzig.com
  3. 3https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/as/asus41.kokx.rwr.okx.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
  4. 4New York City, NY weather forecastgroundhog.markets
  5. 5NYC High Temperature on November 13: 46-47°F Market | Lines.comlines.com
  6. 6NYC Weather Nov. 12-15, 2026: Steady Rain, Northeast Wind and Colder Air | How2NewYorkhow2newyork.com
  7. 7Weather Today for John F Kennedy International Airport, NY | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
  8. 8NYC borough under tornado warning as ominous cloud swirled above JFK airportnypost.com
  9. 9WEATHERTrackCAST - New York, NY Forecast Discussionweathertrackcast.com
  10. 10Central Park, NY Highest Maximum Temperature (°F) 1869-Presentweather.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: 49° or below

📉 November 13, 2026: 59.0pp drop

Price decreased from 73.0% to 14.0%

What happened: The provided research does not identify a primary driver for a 59.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for the outcome "49° or below." All available weather information, including early observations near 48-49°F and forecasts for colder daytime highs around 40-46°F due to a coastal low, indicates a trend that would make "49° or below" more likely, not less [1][2][3][4][5]. In fact, one prediction market page reported a 59% market-price increase for a "48-49°F" outcome, which directly contradicts the stated drop for "49° or below" [6]. No social media activity related to this market movement was found in the provided sources. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a driver for the specified drop, as the information suggests no corresponding market behavior.

Outcome: 52° to 53°

📈 November 12, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Price increased from 5.0% to 17.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not contain any evidence of social media activity or traditional news that would explain a 12.0 percentage point spike for the "52° to 53°" outcome on November 12, 2026. In fact, available forecasts from ABC7 and How2NewYork for November 13, 2026, predicted significantly lower highs near 40°F or 45°F, along with colder, rainy conditions [3]. These forecasts would typically lead to a decrease in the probability of a 52-53°F high. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this price movement based on the available information.
Sources (6)
  1. 1https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/as/asus41.kokx.rwr.okx.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
  2. 2WEATHERTrackCAST - New York, NY Today's Forecastweathertrackcast.com
  3. 3NYC weather: Coastal low picks up overnight, snow north & west Friday - ABC7 New Yorkabc7ny.com
  4. 4NYC Weather Nov. 12-15, 2026: Steady Rain, Northeast Wind and Colder Air | How2NewYorkhow2newyork.com
  5. 5Wind, rain, maybe snowflakes: It's about to get chilly around NYCbkheightsdispatch.com
  6. 6Highest temperature in NYC on November 13? 48-49°F 98% | PolyZigpolyzig.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For each contract, a 'Yes' resolution is triggered if the highest temperature in New York City on the market's designated day falls within that contract's defined temperature range; otherwise, 'No' resolves. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded for the specific day indicated in the market title. Special settlement conditions allow for delays in expiration if a material error is determined in the initial data publication, with markets resolving to Kalshi's last fair price if no data is available by the Expiration Date.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
52° to 53° $0.68 $0.33 66%
50° to 51° $0.15 $0.86 15%
49° or below $0.14 $0.87 14%
54° to 55° $0.02 $1.00 2%
56° to 57° $0.01 $1.00 1%
58° or above $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Public discussion indicates that the highest temperature in New York City on November 13, 2026, was reported to be in the 48-49°F range across Central Park, LaGuardia, and JFK, with Groundhog.markets also tracking 48°F early in the day [1]. Polymarket reflected strong confidence in this outcome, pricing the 48-49°F bracket at 98% [2]. While Kalshi's market displayed varying probabilities for outcomes between 49°F and below, and 50-53°F [3], and Lines.com analysis (Nov 11, 2026) suggested 46-47°F leading with a warning of market uncertainty [4], AccuWeather had forecast a colder high around 40°F [5], noting the observed temperature was significantly below the 55°F historical normal for the date [6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/as/asus41.kokx.rwr.okx.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
  2. 2Highest temperature in NYC on November 13? 48-49°F 98% | PolyZigpolyzig.com
  3. 3Will the maximum temperature be <50° on Nov 13, 2026: 49° or below | Live Odds | PicksByOddspicksbyodds.com
  4. 4NYC High Temperature on November 13: 46-47°F Market | Lines.comlines.com
  5. 5NYC weather: Coastal low picks up overnight, snow north & west Friday - ABC7 New Yorkabc7ny.com
  6. 6Central Park NY Daily Climate Normals Maximum Temperature (°F)weather.gov

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 63 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good

Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score20Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score63Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
93Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
85Strong

No privileged early knowledge

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
30High Risk

No suspicious activity on any screen

Settlement depends on interpretation — verify the rules and source before trading.

Resolution rules read: Ambiguous

Liquidity
7Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

6 contracts · worst first

54° to 55°5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

52° to 53°6
Very thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 33.6% of price over 18 traded bars

Book spread 4% vs realized 34%
50° to 51°6
Very thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 58.4% of price over 18 traded bars

Book spread 7% vs realized 58%
49° or below13
Very thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 19.2% of price over 18 traded bars

56° to 57°40
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

58° or above50
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
66Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

6 contracts · worst first

49° or below54
Mixed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

52° to 53°67
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

50° to 51°73
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

54° to 55°—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

56° to 57°—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

58° or above—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40Ambiguous

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

6 contracts · worst first

52° to 53°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
49° or below40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
50° to 51°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
54° to 55°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
56° to 57°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
58° or above40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
20Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 24 (notional-weighted across 6 scored legs)

$100 order: 3.4c slippage (~5% of a 68.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

52° to 53°Primary24Market scoreLiquidity6Move quality67Rule clarity40
Why 24
Liquidity
6 · Very thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 33.6% of price over 18 traded bars

Book spread 4% vs realized 34%
Move quality
67 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
49° or below26Market scoreLiquidity13Move quality54Rule clarity40
Why 26
Liquidity
13 · Very thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 19.2% of price over 18 traded bars

Move quality
54 · Mixed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
50° to 51°26Market scoreLiquidity6Move quality73Rule clarity40
Why 26
Liquidity
6 · Very thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 58.4% of price over 18 traded bars

Book spread 7% vs realized 58%
Move quality
73 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
54° to 55°5Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
56° to 57°40Market scoreLiquidity40Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
40 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
58° or above40Market scoreLiquidity50Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
50 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 13, 2026

6. What specific meteorological catalysts could cause a significant deviation from the historical average temperature at LaGuardia (KLGA) on November 13, 2026?

Primary Meteorological Swing FactorTiming and intensity of frontal rain, and whether it arrives before or after the daily temperature peak [1][2][3]
Condition for Warm DeviationStronger-than-modeled southwesterly flow or delayed frontal passage [4]
Rain Likelihood for NYC on November 13, 2026Near-certain [1][2][3]
The timing and intensity of frontal rain is the primary meteorological factor influencing the high temperature at LaGuardia (KLGA) on November 13, 2026 [1][2][3]. Specifically, whether precipitation arrives before or after the daily temperature peak is critical. Rain is considered near-certain for New York City on this date [1][2][3].
Early frontal activity could lead to colder temperatures than market expectations. An early frontal passage or significant rain and cloud cover arriving before the daily temperature peak are identified as key downside catalysts [5][1][2][3]. Regional forecasts for major cities across the Northeast, such as Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago, also indicate a cool, rainy post-frontal pattern [4][1][2].
Delayed frontal passage could produce warmer conditions than anticipated. A significant warm deviation from the expected temperature range would necessitate a stronger-than-modeled southwesterly flow or a delayed frontal passage [4]. If frontal rain arrives after the daily temperature peak, this timing could also contribute to a higher temperature reading [1][2][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Philadelphia on November 13, 2026? - Gemini Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Will the highest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) exceed 41 F on November 13, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)? - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Will the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 50 F on November 13, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)? - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Highest temperature in Boston on November 13, 2026? - Compare Gemini vs Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 13, 2026?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com

7. What is the current long-range forecast consensus from major models like the GFS and ECMWF for LaGuardia (KLGA) on November 13, 2026, and what is their historical accuracy for this region?

Expected High Temperature52°F (KLGA, November 13, 2026) [1][2]
Kalshi Market Probability (52°-53°F)84.3% (NYC, November 13, 2026) [3][4]
Rain Probability99.5% (NYC, November 13, 2026) [5]
A strong model consensus forecasts a 52°F high for LaGuardia. A notable consensus emerges for LaGuardia (KLGA) on November 13, 2026, with major models indicating a high temperature of 52°F [1][2]. Prediction markets reflect this outlook; Kalshi's market for the highest temperature in New York City on that date prices the 52°-53°F range with an 84.3% fair chance. Other ranges show 50°-51°F at 10.8%, 54°-55°F at 1.9%, and 49°F or below at 1% [3][4]. This tight consensus is further supported by 4Search's aggregated view of this market, which reports a median expected high of 52.4°F and an interquartile range of 52.0-52.7°F [1][2].
Further market data supports this temperature and forecasts rain. ForecastEx binary markets for KLGA on November 13, 2026, also indicate a high of approximately 52°F, suggesting a low probability of temperatures significantly exceeding 50°F, with the probability of exceeding 49°F at 15% and exceeding 50°F at 3% [6][7][8][9]. Additionally, Kalshi markets assign a 99.5% probability of rain in New York City on November 13, 2026 [5]. The market for temperature resolution is set for November 14, 2026, with results based on The Weather Company's maximum temperature for New York City (CLINYC) [4].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Daily weather Prediction Markets: Odds, Movers & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  2. 2Weather & Climate Prediction Markets: Odds, Movers & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  3. 3Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 13, 2026? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Marketsthepredictionmarkets.com
  4. 4Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 13, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Highest temperature in Boston on November 13, 2026? - Compare Gemini vs Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Will the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 47 F on November 13, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)? - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Will the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 48 F on November 13, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)? - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Will the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 49 F on November 13, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)? - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  9. 9Will the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 50 F on November 13, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)? - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

8. How do daily high temperatures at LaGuardia (KLGA) typically compare to those at JFK Airport and Central Park during mid-November coastal low weather systems?

Leading NYC Outcome52–53°F (market aggregators) [1][2][3][4][5]
CoinRithm Probability for 52-53F78–81.5% [2]
4Search Median Temperature52.4°F for Nov 13, 2026 [3]
JFK temperatures are suppressed during coastal low weather systems. During mid-November coastal low weather systems, which feature wet, easterly flow, daily high temperatures at JFK Airport tend to be suppressed relative to inland or urban sites [6][7][5]. In contrast, LaGuardia and Central Park should generally remain close in temperature under these conditions [6][7][5]. Market listings for November 13, 2026, currently show an association with rain in New York City and surrounding areas, which is consistent with a storm or coastal-low weather regime [6][7][5].
Forecasts suggest a high of 52-53°F for New York City. Market aggregators for November 13, 2026, place the leading New York City outcome at 52–53°F [1][2][3][4][5]. CoinRithm indicates approximately 78–81.5% for that temperature bracket [2][3]. Furthermore, 4Search reports a median of 52.4°F, with the middle half of predictions ranging from 52.0–52.7°F [3].
Market labels may not reflect all station temperatures. The general market label “New York City” does not assure that all three stations—JFK, LaGuardia, and Central Park—will record an identical maximum temperature [1][2][3][4][5]. The rules cited differentiate between NOAA KLGA hourly data used for some contracts and The Weather Company’s CLINYC maximum for Kalshi, which, for its November 13, 2026, odds snapshot, was more conservative and explicitly cited an NWS Central Park forecast as its reference [5][4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Will the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 50 F on November 13, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)? - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Will the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 49 F on November 13, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)? - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Daily weather Prediction Markets: Odds, Movers & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  4. 4Highest temperature in NYC on October 13? - Result: 72-73°F | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 13, 2026?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  6. 6Will the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 48 F on November 13, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)? - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Highest temperature in Philadelphia on November 13, 2026? - Gemini Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

9. What is the 30-year historical distribution of high temperatures at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) for November 13, and how frequently do they fall into the market's specific brackets?

KLGA Climate Normal Period1991–2020 [1][2]
Predicted Probability 52-53F78–80% (November 13, 2026) [3][4][5][6]
Predicted Probability 50-51F12–13% (November 13, 2026) [3][4][5][6]
Historical temperature data for LaGuardia Airport was not available. The research could not establish the 30-year historical distribution or frequency of daily high temperatures at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) for November 13 within the prediction market's defined brackets, as the necessary historical data was not found in the provided sources [1][2]. While the climate normal period for KLGA is identified as 1991–2020, the specific 30 daily high temperatures for November 13 required to create an exact 1996–2025 frequency table were not retrieved [1][2]. For settlement purposes, the relevant observation will be the maximum hourly NOAA temperature recorded at KLGA on November 13, 2026 [7].
Prediction markets indicate probabilities for specific temperature ranges. The prediction market outlines several temperature brackets for November 13, 2026: 49°F or below; 50–51°F; 52–53°F; 54–55°F; 56–57°F; and 58°F or above [3][4][5]. Based on recent snapshots, the 52–53°F bracket is currently quoted at approximately 78–80%, while the 50–51°F bracket is around 12–13%, and the 49°F or below bracket is quoted at 6–7.5% [3][4][5][6]. A separate aggregator snapshot that cited NYC November 13 at 48–49°F with a 96% probability was observed but was deemed likely an outlier due to potential staleness, differing definitions, or incorrect labeling [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1IEM:: CLI from NWS OKXmesonet.agron.iastate.edu
  2. 2IEM:: CLI from NWS OKXmesonet.agron.iastate.edu
  3. 3Will the maximum temperature be 52-53° on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Will the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 49 F on November 13, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)? - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Will the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 50 F on November 13, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)? - ForecastEx Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Highest temperature in Philadelphia on November 13, 2026? - Gemini Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Highest temperature in NYC on October 13? - Result: 72-73°F | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

10. How do the long-range forecast accuracies of commercial providers like AccuWeather and The Weather Channel compare to public National Weather Service (NWS) models for New York City in autumn?

NWS Fall Max Temp MAE (Days 1-3)Near 4°F [1]
NWS Fall Max Temp MAE (Days 5-8)Approximately 7.5-8°F [1]
Prediction Market Settlement AuthorityThe Weather Company's final maximum temperature [2]
The research did not retrieve controlled, head-to-head accuracy scores comparing AccuWeather, The Weather Channel, and National Weather Service (NWS) models for New York City autumn conditions [1][3][4][5]. Consequently, claims of local accuracy superiority for commercial providers remain unsubstantiated by the retrieved sources. An NWS seasonal verification study reported a mean absolute error (MAE) for fall maximum temperatures of nearly 4°F for days 1–3 and approximately 7.5–8°F for days 5–8 [1]. This study noted that fall errors were higher than summer errors, attributed to transition-season variability [1].
NWS forecasts generally outperform raw model guidance and specific market data. Official NWS forecasts consistently outperformed raw Global Forecast System (GFS) data and, at times, GFS Model Output Statistics (MOS) [3]. A separate NWS study indicated that European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) MOS showed comparable accuracy to the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) for maximum temperature through day 7 [4]. Although prediction markets for New York City on November 13, 2026, indicated a consensus around 52–53°F, retrieved market snapshots were inconsistent [2][6][7][8][9]. These inconsistencies likely represent different timestamps or products, making them unsuitable for a clean, direct provider comparison [2][6][7][8][9]. It is notable that the settlement authority for this specific market is explicitly The Weather Company's final maximum temperature, not forecasts from AccuWeather, NWS, or the market's own probabilities [2].
Sources (9)
  1. 1VERIFICATION OF MRF-BASED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR MOLINE, ILLINOISweather.gov
  2. 2Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 13, 2026?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  3. 3Forty Years of NWS Verificationweather.gov
  4. 4IFPS Gridded Forecast Verification Statistics at WFO Salt Lake Cityweather.gov
  5. 5Verification of the National Blend of Modelsweather.gov
  6. 6Daily weather Prediction Markets: Odds, Movers & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  7. 7Consecutive days of average temperature in Las Vegas above 90°F - week of Oct 5, 2026 - Awaiting Resolution | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Highest temperature in Boston on November 13, 2026? - Compare Gemini vs Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  9. 9Highest temperature in Philadelphia on November 13, 2026? - Gemini Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Official forecasts for Friday, November 13, 2026, indicated cooler conditions, with the NWS calling for rain and a high near 45°F (falling to approximately 43°F in the afternoon) in Central Park, along with gusts up to 26-28 mph [1]. AccuWeather via ABC7 similarly expected highs around 40°F with rain and a raw, windy day [2]. In contrast, the Polymarket 'Highest temperature in NYC on November 13, 2026' market, resolving on routine METAR observations at LaGuardia (KLGA), saw the 48-49°F bracket lead with 93-98% implied probability [3][4]. Lines.com reported 48-49°F at 93%, 87 points ahead of 50-51°F, while 46-47°F YES held 92.5% in its bracket's market [3]. Kalshi's related market, 'Will the maximum temperature be <50° on Nov 13, 2026,' had YES at 59¢ (59% implied probability) with $22,865 volume and $11,970 open interest, indicating traders perceived a meaningful chance the high would remain below 50°F [5].
Bullish catalysts included a milder pre-storm Thursday high near 59°F and the potential for the Friday high to reach the 48-49°F bracket [3]. Conversely, bearish factors comprised gusty northeast winds pulling in the season's coldest air, coupled with steady rain expected to suppress afternoon warming [3]. Forecasts for ~40-45°F highs also provided a colder outlook [3][2][1]. Contract prices across these markets demonstrated sensitivity, with a 2-degree shift in the afternoon high moving contracts between brackets [3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 14, 2026
  • Expiration: November 20, 2026
  • Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (5)
  1. 1NYC Weather Nov. 12-15, 2026: Steady Rain, Northeast Wind and Colder Air | How2NewYorkhow2newyork.com
  2. 2NYC weather: Coastal low picks up overnight, snow north & west Friday - ABC7 New Yorkabc7ny.com
  3. 3NYC High Temperature on November 13: 46-47°F Market | Lines.comlines.com
  4. 4Highest temperature in NYC on November 13? 48-49°F 98% | PolyZigpolyzig.com
  5. 5Will the maximum temperature be <50° on Nov 13, 2026: 49° or below | Live Odds | PicksByOddspicksbyodds.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXHIGHNY-26NOV11-T66: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHNY-26NOV11-T59: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHNY-26NOV11-B65.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHNY-26NOV11-B63.5: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHNY-26NOV11-B61.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)