Short Answer

The highest temperature in San Antonio on November 13, 2026, will likely be 78° to 79°F, as multiple high-quality forecasts from Weather Underground (79°F) and NWS (77°F) converge in this range, priced by the market at 79.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's sharp decline was driven by weather forecasts for November 13 that solidified at levels well above the contract's apparent threshold. The price collapsed from 26.0% on November 12 to 7.0% on November 13 as multiple weather services issued consistent predictions. The NWS Austin/San Antonio office provided a point forecast for a high of 77°F, while Weather Underground projected a high of 79°F.
These forecasts, described by local KSAT meteorologists as "sunny, comfortable, and low-humidity," removed prior uncertainty about the day's temperature. With the NWS noting temperatures would be "at or above normal" compared to the 72°F average, market participants priced in a very low probability of the high temperature falling below the upper 70s. The move occurred on low volume.
  • 78-79°F remains favored, supported by Weather Underground (79°F) and NWS (77°F) forecasts.
  • 76-77°F garners some support from the NWS (77°F) and BBC Weather (76°F).

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
80° to 81° 13.0% 9.9% Primary forecasts from Weather Underground and NWS project a high below this range.
78° to 79° 79.0% 85.1% Multiple high-quality forecasts from Weather Underground and NWS converge around this range.
76° to 77° 7.0% 8.3% NWS Austin/San Antonio's preliminary forecast and BBC Weather directly support this range.
74° to 75° 1.0% 0.9% More recent NWS and Weather Underground forecasts indicate warmer conditions for Nov 13.
82° or above 1.0% 85.1% Outside deterministic model scope.

Current Context

San Antonio forecasts project a high around 78-79°F for November 13. Weather Underground’s hourly forecast for November 13 projected a high of 79°F and a low of 53°F, with temperatures reaching approximately 78°F between 1 and 3 p.m. [1]. The NWS Austin/San Antonio discussion, issued early November 13, indicated temperatures would be at or above normal and provided a preliminary point forecast for San Antonio International Airport at 77°F high, 53°F low, and zero precipitation probability for Friday [2]. Local KSAT meteorologists described Friday as sunny, comfortable, and low-humidity, expecting morning temperatures in the lower 50s [3]. Weather Underground lists the average high for November 13 as 72°F and the record high as 91°F [1].
Prediction markets show consensus for San Antonio's high near 78-79°F. Kalshi showed the prediction-market range concentrated near the upper 70s, assigning 74% probability to 78–79°F, 25% to 80–81°F, and 1% each for 73°F or below and 82°F or above in the retrieved snapshot [4]. Other prediction market snapshots were not fully consistent but supported this range: Frenzy Capital showed 58% for 78–79°F, 25% for 80–81°F, and 14% for 76–77°F, while PredictMarketCap reported 82% for 78–79°F [5][6]. These figures represent market probabilities, not expert-certified observations [5][6].
The high temperature market resolves November 14 following a dry, warm Friday. The relevant weather sequence for November 13 was dry and warm, with expanding rain chances forecast for Saturday and Sunday, November 14–15 [2][3][6]. Cooler temperatures were expected early the week of November 16 [3]. The high-temperature market was scheduled to resolve on November 14 [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1San Antonio, TX Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  2. 2Austin/San Antonio NWS Area Forecast Discussion (EWX) | Vertexvertexmaps.com
  3. 3Beautiful Friday, some rain over the weekendksat.com
  4. 4Highest temperature in San Antonio tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  5. 5Highest temperature in San Antonio on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  6. 6San Antonio Weather on Nov 13, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: 76° to 77°

📉 November 13, 2026: 19.0pp drop

Price decreased from 24.0% to 5.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 19.0 percentage point drop in the "76° to 77°" outcome was likely a viral Facebook post by CBS Austin meteorologist Avery Tomasco, explicitly identified as a "key social media catalyst" [1]. Tomasco's post predicted "the coldest weekend since March," coinciding with reports on November 13, 2026, of a "backdoor" cold front expected to impact San Antonio starting Friday night [1]. This prominent social media activity, amplified by an NWS forecast updated November 11 showing Friday's high near 75°F [2], likely caused market participants to anticipate significantly lower temperatures for November 13, reducing the probability of the high falling within the 76-77°F range. Social media was thus a primary driver, accelerating a downward shift in market expectations.

Outcome: 78° to 79°

📈 November 12, 2026: 22.0pp spike

Price increased from 51.0% to 73.0%

What happened: No evidence of social media activity influencing this market movement was found in the provided sources. The primary driver of the price spike was likely the consistent weather forecasts released on November 12, 2026, for San Antonio on November 13, 2026 [3][4][5]. Multiple reports and forecasts from local news outlets and major weather services, including Weather Underground and The Weather Channel, predicted a high temperature near 77-79°F, with some specifically forecasting 79°F [6][7][3]. This direct alignment of official forecasts with the "78° to 79°" outcome, which is used for market resolution [8], would strongly bolster confidence in that specific range. Social media was irrelevant as a driver in this instance.
Sources (8)
  1. 1Cold front to bring drastic temperature drop to parts of Texasmysanantonio.com
  2. 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  3. 3Thursday Afternoon in San Antonio: 77 Degrees and Clear — the High Is Raised to 78.5, Saturday Rain Odds Hold at 52 Percent | T.W.A. NEWS San Antoniotwanews.com
  4. 4Nice weather for South Texas, but here’s when to expect changesexpressnews.com
  5. 5Beautiful Friday, some rain over the weekendksat.com
  6. 6San Antonio, TX Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  7. 7Weekend Weather Forecast for San Antonio, Texas 78263 - The Weather Channel | weather.comweather.com
  8. 8November 13, 2026: San Antonio Daily Temperature High November 13 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution for a contract occurs if San Antonio's highest temperature for November 13, 2026, falls within that contract's specified range; otherwise, it resolves "No". Payout is scheduled by November 14, 2026. If a material error is found in the initial non-preliminary data publication, expiration may be delayed until a corrected revision or the Expiration Date, whichever comes first; if no data is available, markets resolve to the last fair price determined by the Exchange.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
78° to 79° $0.79 $0.22 79%
80° to 81° $0.13 $0.91 13%
76° to 77° $0.07 $0.95 7%
73° or below $0.01 $1.00 1%
74° to 75° $0.02 $0.99 1%
82° or above $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

The market shows a strong consensus that the highest temperature in San Antonio on November 13, 2026, will be between 78° and 79°, with this outcome holding a 79% probability. While there's a smaller, but notable, 13% chance predicted for temperatures between 80° and 81°, the market has seen a slight shift, with expectations for the 80°-81° range increasing and the 76°-77° range decreasing. This collective sentiment aligns closely with the provided forecast indicating temperatures around 78.3°-78.7°, suggesting traders largely agree on a high 70s temperature for the day.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 66 Caution

Integrity risk· Resolution quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good

Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score32High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score66Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
93Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
85Strong

No privileged early knowledge

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
30High Risk

No suspicious activity on any screen

Settlement depends on interpretation — verify the rules and source before trading.

Resolution rules read: Ambiguous

Liquidity
58Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

4 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

74° to 75°35
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

80° to 81°38
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

76° to 77°42
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

78° to 79°67
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 1% vs realized 6%
Move quality
56Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

4 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

78° to 79°53
Mixed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

76° to 77°63
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

80° to 81°65
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

74° to 75°71
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 17h

Rule clarity
40Ambiguous

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

4 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

78° to 79°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
80° to 81°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
76° to 77°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
74° to 75°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
32High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 40 (notional-weighted across 4 scored legs)

$100 order: 3.3c slippage (~4% of a 78.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

2 below the volume floor — not scored

78° to 79°Primary40Market scoreLiquidity67Move quality53Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
67 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 1% vs realized 6%
Move quality
53 · Mixed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
80° to 81°38Market scoreLiquidity38Move quality65Rule clarity40
Why 38
Liquidity
38 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
65 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
76° to 77°40Market scoreLiquidity42Move quality63Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
42 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
63 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
74° to 75°35Market scoreLiquidity35Move quality71Rule clarity40
Why 35
Liquidity
35 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
71 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 17h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 13, 2026

6. What atmospheric developments on Nov 13 could cause the high temperature to deviate significantly from the forecasted upper 70s?

Forecast UncertaintySignificant deviation from forecasted upper 70s possible [1][2]
Chance Below 78°11–16% [1][2]
Chance at 80°+8–27% [1][2]
Significant temperature deviation from upper 70s is possible on November 13. The high temperature in San Antonio on November 13, 2026, is subject to genuine forecast uncertainty, potentially deviating significantly from the anticipated upper 70s [1][2]. This uncertainty stems primarily from the ridge position and wind-direction timing over south-central Texas [1][2].
Market pricing quantifies forecast uncertainty with specific probability ranges. The market's pricing reflects this uncertainty through a two-sided tail risk, indicating an 11–16% chance of temperatures falling below 78° and an 8–27% chance of temperatures reaching 80° or higher [1][2]. Despite a mild, ridge-dominated pattern being broadly consistent for the region on that date [3][4], the market's pricing underscores the genuine forecast uncertainty concerning the upper-70s baseline, specifically tied to these atmospheric developments [1][2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1San Antonio Weather on Nov 13, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  2. 2Highest temperature in San Antonio on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

7. How do the hourly temperature projections from Weather Underground compare against the point forecast from the National Weather Service for the afternoon of Nov 13?

Afternoon Peak TemperatureApproximately 78°F (upper 70s) [1][2][3]
Market Favorite Temperature Range78°-79° (82%) [1][2][3]
Tail Probability on Other Outcomes18% [1][2][3]
Weather Underground and NWS show consistent November 13 temperature projections. Both Weather Underground and the National Weather Service (NWS) generally agree on their hourly temperature projections for the afternoon of November 13, 2026, in San Antonio (KSAT). Both sources indicate a high in the upper 70s, broadly agreeing on an approximate 78°F for the afternoon peak [1][2][3].
Weather Underground's forecast aligns with a prediction market favorite. Specifically, Weather Underground's hourly projections for the November 13 afternoon peak are in the upper 70s, approximately 78–79°F. This aligns with the prediction market's favorite 78–79° bucket, as the Kalshi market 'Highest temperature in San Antonio on Nov 13, 2026?' (KXHIGHTSATX-26NOV13) shows the 78–79° range as the market favorite at 82% [1][2][3].
The prediction market assigns specific probabilities to other temperature ranges. The market also assigns 9% to the 76–77° range and 7% to the 80–81° range, accounting for approximately 18% tail probability on these outcomes. The market resolves based on the maximum temperature recorded at San Antonio (CLISAT) as reported by The Weather Company [1][2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1San Antonio Weather on Nov 13, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  2. 2Highest temperature in San Antonio on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

8. What is the historical forecast accuracy of the NWS Austin/San Antonio office for 24-hour high temperature predictions in mid-November?

24-hour Temperature Mean Absolute Error (MAE)4-7°F (EAX area) [1]
NWS Austin/San Antonio Nov 13, 2026 Forecast75°F (San Antonio high) [2]
Market expectation vs. NWS Nov 13, 2026 Forecast~1-4°F warmer than NWS (San Antonio high) [3][4][5]
Direct historical accuracy data for NWS Austin/San Antonio is not available. While historical forecast accuracy statistics for the National Weather Service (NWS) Austin/San Antonio office (EWX) for 24-hour high temperature predictions in mid-November are not directly available [6], ensemble statistics for the Austin (EAX) area suggest a typical 24-hour temperature Mean Absolute Error (MAE) ranging from 4-7°F. Furthermore, biases in these predictions can vary significantly, ranging from approximately -10°F to +12°F, depending on the specific location and forecast hour [1].
NWS Austin/San Antonio forecasts 75°F for San Antonio on November 13. The National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio's Tabular State Forecast, issued on November 12, 2026, predicts a high temperature of 75°F for San Antonio on Friday, November 13, 2026 [2]. This NWS forecast is anticipated to be approximately 1-4°F cooler than the market's expectation for that date [3][4][5]. Additionally, the NWS Austin/San Antonio's Area Forecast Discussion for November 12 indicates that Friday, November 13, is expected to be a stable, dry day with above-normal temperatures and low forecast uncertainty [7][8].
Prediction markets generally show well-calibrated expectations for San Antonio temperatures. Analysis of recent resolved prediction markets for San Antonio daily highs in 2026 suggests that market expectations for 24-hour temperature predictions in the region are generally well-calibrated. The market's favored outcome frequently proves correct [9][10][11][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1https://www.weather.gov/source/mbrfc/ESPwebpage/textfiles/StatsSummary.EAX.txtweather.gov
  2. 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  3. 3San Antonio Weather on Nov 13, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  4. 4Highest temperature in San Antonio on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  6. 6National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  7. 7Routine Forecasts & Productsweather.gov
  8. 8Austin/San Antonio, TXweather.gov
  9. 9San Antonio Weather on Oct 19, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  10. 10San Antonio Weather on Oct 6, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  11. 11San Antonio Weather on Oct 3, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  12. 12San Antonio Weather on Sep 18, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com

9. What does historical almanac data for San Antonio show for the distribution of high temperatures on November 13 over the last 30 years?

November Monthly Average High72 73 F [1][2][3][4]
November 13, 2026 Best Estimate78 79 F [5][6][1][2]
November 13, 2026 Broader Plausible BandMid-70s to around 80 F [5][6][1][2]
Specific 30-year historical data for November 13 high temperatures is unavailable. A station-level 30-year almanac table detailing the distribution of high temperatures on November 13 for San Antonio is explicitly noted as missing from available sources [5][6][1][2]. Despite this data gap, existing climatological evidence indicates that November 13 in San Antonio is typically warmer than late-November [1][2][3][4]. Generally, daily high temperatures in San Antonio during November are observed to decrease from approximately 77 degrees Fahrenheit at the beginning of the month to 69 degrees Fahrenheit by its conclusion, with the overall November monthly average high ranging from 72 to 73 degrees Fahrenheit [1][2][3][4].
Forecasts for November 13, 2026, center on 78-79 degrees Fahrenheit. For this specific date, the most robust point or range estimate for the high temperature is 78-79 degrees Fahrenheit [5][6][1][2]. Based on available evidence, a broader historically plausible range for the high temperature spans from the mid-70s up to approximately 80 degrees Fahrenheit [5][6][1][2]. This estimate aligns with the market's consensus for the 2026 event, which primarily focuses on 78-79 degrees Fahrenheit, while also allocating probabilities to temperatures between 76-77 degrees Fahrenheit and 80-81 degrees Fahrenheit [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1San Antonio International Airport Climate, Weather By Month, Average Temperature (Texas, United States) - Weather Sparkdeploy.weatherspark.com
  2. 2San Antonio November Weather, Average Temperature (Texas, United States) - Weather Sparkweatherspark.com
  3. 3San Antonio Climate, Weather By Month, Average Temperature (Texas, United States) - Weather Sparkdeploy.weatherspark.com
  4. 4San Antonio International Airport Climate, Weather By Month, Average Temperature (Texas, United States) - Weather Sparkweatherspark.com
  5. 5San Antonio Weather on Nov 13, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  6. 6Highest temperature in San Antonio on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

10. How did the implied probabilities on Kalshi, Frenzy Capital, and PredictMarketCap for the 78-79°F bracket compare on November 12?

PredictMarketCap Implied Probability82% (78°-79°F bracket on November 12) [1]
Frenzy Capital/Kalshi Probability Range71% to 84% (November 12-related snapshots) [2][1][3][4]
Frenzy Capital Current Event Page Probability58% (78°-79°F) [2]
Implied probabilities for the 78-79°F bracket varied across platforms on November 12. PredictMarketCap indicated an 82% implied probability for this temperature range, stating that these forecasts originated from Kalshi trading [1]. For Frenzy Capital and the Kalshi market, implied probabilities observed in various November 12-related snapshots showed a range from 71% to 84% [2][1][3][4]. The available research did not provide evidence of a single, exact closing probability for November 12 [2][1][3][4].
Frenzy Capital displayed diverse probabilities for the 78-79°F outcome on the Kalshi market. One current or indexed snapshot of Frenzy Capital's event page showed a 58% probability [2]. A separate climate-category snapshot from Frenzy Capital displayed 71% [4], while its settling-markets page showed an 84% probability for the San Antonio 78-79°F bracket [3]. This 84% display explicitly indicates a later or different snapshot compared to the 71% and 58% displays [3]. Consequently, PredictMarketCap showed 82%, while Frenzy Capital/Kalshi values from November 12-related snapshots ranged from 71% to 84%, with one event page currently reflecting 58% [2][1][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1San Antonio Weather on Nov 13, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  2. 2Highest temperature in San Antonio on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

San Antonio's daily high temperature for Friday, November 13, 2026, is forecast between 77°F and 79°F by primary sources. Weather Underground projects 79°F with a 53°F low and 2% precipitation [1]. The NWS Austin/San Antonio (EWX) issued a 12:01 AM CST Nov 13, 2026, forecast for dry weather and temperatures at or above normal, with the San Antonio International Airport (KSAT) point forecast at a 77°F high and 53°F low [2]. These projections are 5–8°F above the November climate normal average high of 71.7°F [3][1]. Other forecasts show a lower range; BBC Weather anticipates a 76°F high and 58°F low, while airportdistancecalculator.com forecasts 23.7°C (~75°F) [4][5]. This 1–3°F spread below the Weather Underground/NWS forecast illustrates the dispersion traders operate against [4][5].
Prediction markets reflect these varied expectations. Kalshi's November 13, 2026, San Antonio daily-maximum market shows the 78°–79° bracket at 74% (▲9), the 80°–81° bracket at 25% (▲1), and the 76°–77° bracket at 4% (▼3) [6]. This market settles on The Weather Company data, a practice established on August 14, 2026 [6][7]. Robinhood's November 13, 2026, San Antonio daily high market settles on Weather Underground's KSAT station reading, with >75 at 81¢, >77 at 50¢, and >78 at 24¢ [8]. Kalshi's settlement processes approximately 25–35 minutes after market close [7]. The daily high window, from 1:00 AM to 12:59 AM local time, aligns with standard time following the end of DST on November 1, 2026 [9]. Later NBM/HRRR model runs have shown a tendency to move toward Kalshi prices when discrepancies exist; Kalshi's weather markets also outperformed NOAA's blend in 24 of 24 cities, with a mean miss of 0.87°F versus 1.80°F after 3 PM [9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 14, 2026
  • Expiration: November 20, 2026
  • Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1San Antonio, TX Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  2. 2Austin/San Antonio NWS Area Forecast Discussion (EWX) | Vertexvertexmaps.com
  3. 3Climate of San Antonio - Weather and Climateweatherandclimate.info
  4. 4San Antonio - BBC Weatherbbc.com
  5. 5San Antonio International Airport (SAT) 15 Day Weather Forecast, San Antonio United Statesairportdistancecalculator.com
  6. 6Highest temperature in San Antonio tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  7. 7Kalshi Weather Markets: Temperature, Snow and Hurricanesnextpredict.io
  8. 8November 13, 2026: San Antonio Daily Temperature High November 13 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  9. 9Kalshi Weather Markets Beat NOAA's Forecast in 24 of 24 Cities — We Retired Our Modelpredictionmarketspicks.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXHIGHTSATX-26NOV11-T81: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTSATX-26NOV11-T74: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTSATX-26NOV11-B80.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTSATX-26NOV11-B78.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTSATX-26NOV11-B76.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)