Short Answer

The highest temperature in Boston on November 13, 2026, is expected to be between 46° and 47°F, supported by the 46°F already recorded early in the day. The market prices this outcome at 93.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market probability of Boston's high temperature reaching 44°F or higher on November 13, 2026, collapsed in response to official weather forecasts. Projections from the National Weather Service (NWS) and WCVB StormTeam 5 converged on a high temperature below the contract's threshold, calling for 43°F and 42°F respectively. These forecasts, issued for the resolution date itself, provided high-confidence data points that drove the contract's price to 1.0%.

The final price drop from 8.0% to 1.0% occurred on significant volume of over 935 contracts, indicating strong market conviction in the updated forecasts. Earlier, higher prices reflected baseline uncertainty, which dissolved as near-term meteorological reports became available. The provided context notes a large price spike in a different market for a "46° to 47°" outcome, but this is inconsistent with the price history and forecast data for this specific 44°F contract.

Maximum temperature 46-47°F is highly favored; 46°F was recorded early on November 13. Outcomes below 46°F are impossible, 46°F having already been recorded. * 48-49°F remains the main upside risk, despite chilly rain forecasts.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
44° to 45°	1.0%	0.4%	46°F was already recorded, making this maximum temperature range impossible.
43° or below	1.0%	0.4%	46°F was already recorded, making lower maximums impossible for the day.
46° to 47°	93.0%	96.6%	46°F was already recorded, confirming this range's lower bound for the day.
50° to 51°	1.0%	1.2%	Prevailing forecasts indicate unfavorable conditions for such high temperatures.
48° to 49°	10.0%	13.5%	This range represents the main deviation risk and most plausible higher outcome.

Current Context

Official forecasts project a Boston high temperature in the low 40s. The National Weather Service (NWS) Boston's zone forecast for Friday, November 13, 2026, issued at 10:02 AM EST, called for cloudy conditions with rain primarily in the morning, near-steady temperatures in the lower 40s, and north winds of 15–20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, estimating an 80% chance of rain ^[1]. An earlier NWS point forecast specified the Friday high near 43°F ^[2]. WCVB StormTeam 5 issued a Weather Alert for the same day, forecasting a high of 42°F amid chilly rain and wind ^[3]^[4]. NBC10 chief meteorologist Mark Searles, reporting at 9:40 PM on November 12, anticipated Friday temperatures hovering in the upper 30s to near 40°F, with light-to-moderate morning showers concluding around midday, rain totals of approximately 0.5 inch, and northeast gusts between 25–35 mph ^[5].

Prediction markets generally price Boston's high temperature at 46°F or above. Groundhog.markets' ensemble of 7–9 free forecasts for November 13, 2026, at KBOS indicated a median high of 46°F, a rest-of-day median of 45.1°F, and a spread of 44.1–49.0°F. Notably, 46°F had already been recorded at 12:54 AM ^[6]. Kalshi's Boston maximum-temperature market for November 13, 2026, showed 46°–47°F priced at 42% and 48°–49°F at 44% as the leading buckets, with 44°–45°F at 5% and 50°+ at a combined 9% ^[7]. Robinhood's Forecastex market for the same event priced >46°F at 61¢ and >47°F at 27¢, suggesting a market expectation for a 46–47°F high ^[8]. Kalshi's related low-temperature market for November 13, 2026, favored 37°–38°F at 44% and 39°–40°F at 34%, consistent with a chilly overnight low ^[9]. This shift to colder temperatures follows an unusually warm period, as Boston's first ten days of November 2026 ranked among the top three warmest on record, featuring nine consecutive above-average highs and delaying the first frost past its typical November 5 date ^[10]^[11]. The Thursday–Friday storm concluded this warm streak, bringing highs in the 40s through the weekend, with WCVB forecasting a gradual warming to 60°F by the subsequent Thursday ^[3]^[10]^[11].

Sources (11)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: 46° to 47°

📈 November 13, 2026: 54.0pp spike

Price increased from 35.0% to 89.0%

What happened: The provided information does not document a "54.0 percentage point spike" for the "46° to 47°" outcome. Prediction markets already priced this temperature range at 86-90% probability, indicating it was the highly expected outcome ^[1]^[2]. This expectation aligned with weather forecasts predicting a sharp cooldown to the mid-40s on November 13, 2026, following an earlier period of unseasonable warmth ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]. Without evidence of such a price movement, no primary driver from social media activity, traditional news, or market structure can be identified for the described spike; therefore, social media was irrelevant.

Outcome: 48° to 49°

📈 November 12, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Price increased from 41.0% to 53.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the price movement appears to be market participants reacting to current temperature observations on November 12, 2026, which aligned with the "48° to 49°" outcome range for the market that day. Boston registered 47°F in the late evening of November 12, 2026, with nearby areas like Beverly and Marshfield recording 48°F, and a buoy showing 49°F, preceding the colder conditions forecast for November 13, 2026 ^[8]^[9]. Social media conversations, led by NWS Boston and local meteorologists, centered on "first snow talk" for November 12-13, 2026, implying colder temperatures, which would contradict an upward movement for a higher temperature bracket ^[10]^[11]. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or an irrelevant factor for this specific spike.

Sources (11)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if Boston's maximum daily temperature on November 13, 2026, falls within the selected temperature range, and NO if it falls outside that range. The maximum payout and final expiration date for the market is November 14, 2026. If a material error is found in the initial temperature data publication, resolution may be delayed until a corrected revision is published or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first; if no data is available, markets resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
46° to 47°	$0.93	$0.09	93%
48° to 49°	$0.08	$0.94	10%
43° or below	$0.01	$1.00	1%
44° to 45°	$0.01	$1.00	1%
50° to 51°	$0.02	$0.99	1%
52° or above	$0.01	$1.00	1%

Market Discussion

Public discussion presents mixed expectations for Boston's highest temperature on November 13, 2026. Official forecasts from NWS Boston, WCVB, and Foreca generally predict cooler conditions in the lower 40s (e.g., 42-43°F) with rain ^[1]. Conversely, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Robinhood, alongside Groundhog.markets' median forecast of 45.1°F and an early reading of 46°F as of 08:08Z, lean towards the mid-to-upper 40s, with Kalshi pricing 46-47°F and 48-49°F as nearly equally likely outcomes ^[2]. This upward market sentiment aligns with a significant +11.2°F revision in model forecasts for November 13, 2026, documented by The Forecast Post, highlighting dynamic predictions ^[3].

Sources (3)

5. Trust Index

Integrity risk· Resolution quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score74Good

Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score34High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score66Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data

6. How do the high temperature forecasts for Boston on Nov 13 from the National Weather Service (NWS), WCVB StormTeam 5, and Groundhog.markets' ensemble models compare?

NWS Boston Forecast High	42F (November 13, 2026) ^[1]
Kalshi Market 46-47F	88.5% ^[2]^[3]^[4]
Gemini Market 46-47F	90.2% ^[5]

The National Weather Service forecasts a colder high temperature for Boston. The National Weather Service (NWS) Boston point forecast for Friday, November 13, 2026, updated at 10:11 pm EST on November 12, 2026, predicts a high temperature near 42F ^[1]. This NWS forecast is notably colder than prediction markets, representing a 4-5F gap from the 46-47F range favored by markets ^[1]^[6]^[2]. An earlier NWS forecast for nearby Hingham, updated on November 10, had called for a Friday high near 48F, indicating downward revisions in NWS forecasts to the low 40s ^[1]^[6]^[2].

Prediction markets show consensus for significantly higher temperatures. The Kalshi market prices 46-47F as the leading outcome at approximately 85.6-88.5%, with a stored price of 88.5% ^[2]^[3]^[4]. Gemini's version of the market, as of November 13, 2026, 7:27 AM UTC, prices 46F-47F at 90.2% and 48F-49F at 9.8% ^[5].

Specific forecasts for other models were not located. Specific high-temperature forecasts for WCVB StormTeam 5 and Groundhog.markets' ensemble models for November 13, 2026, Boston, were not found in the search results ^[5]^[2]^[1]. Therefore, no direct figures from those two sources could be confirmed for comparison ^[5]^[2]^[1].

Sources (6)

7. What underlying meteorological model data supports the prediction markets (Kalshi, Robinhood) pricing a higher temperature range (46-49°F) than local media forecasts (42-43°F)?

Prediction market temperature range	46-49°F ^[1]
Local media forecast temperature range	42-43°F ^[1]
Kalshi probability for 46-49°F	~78% ^[2]

Specific meteorological model data used by traders was not explicitly identified. The research did not explicitly name the particular meteorological model data, such as GFS, ECMWF, HRRR, or ensemble runs, that traders utilized to support the 46-49°F temperature range in Boston on November 13, 2026. However, weather prediction markets generally aggregate model data, local knowledge, and historical patterns to generate real-money probability estimates ^[3]. This approach led to a divergence where these markets priced a higher temperature range compared to local media forecasts for the specified date.

Prediction markets settle on official observed maximum temperatures, not consumer forecasts. The likely reason for this divergence, where prediction markets priced a higher temperature range (46-49°F) than local media forecasts (42-43°F), is that markets settle on official observed maximum temperature records rather than rounded consumer forecast highs. Model-based traders appear to anticipate the observed maximum temperature will be 3-6°F warmer than the 42-43°F reported by local media ^[1]. For instance, a snapshot of Kalshi's market for the highest temperature in Boston on November 13, 2026, indicated traders assigned approximately 78% probability to the 46-49°F range, combining 48-49°F at 42% and 46-47°F at 36%. Only about 6% probability was assigned to the 42-43°F range that aligned with local media forecasts ^[2].

Other prediction markets also reflected higher temperature probabilities and defined settlement. Similarly, the Gemini market for the highest temperature in Boston on November 13, 2026, priced 46-47°F at 90.2% and 48-49°F at 9.8% as of 7:27 AM UTC on that date ^[4]. The settlement mechanisms for these markets differ; Kalshi's market resolves based on The Weather Company's maximum temperature at Boston (CLIBOS) ^[1], while the Gemini market is settled on the first published NWS Daily Climatological Report for Boston, MA ^[4].

Sources (4)

8. What are the key meteorological catalysts on November 13, such as the timing of rainfall or frontal passage, that could cause the actual high temperature to settle significantly outside the 44-47°F consensus range?

Key meteorological catalyst	Timing of rainfall relative to afternoon temperature peak ^[1]
Consensus temperature range probability	Approximately 92-96% (44-47°F) ^[2]
Probability of upside deviation	Approximately 42% (to 48-49°F) ^[2]

Rainfall timing is the key meteorological catalyst for temperature deviations. For Boston on November 13, 2026, the timing of rainfall relative to the city's afternoon temperature peak is the primary factor influencing deviations from the 44-47°F consensus range ^[1]. A rain system is predicted for the Northeast on this date, making its exact timing crucial for determining whether the high temperature settles significantly outside the 46-47°F consensus ^[1]. This timing will largely dictate if the high temperature reaches 48°F or higher, or remains at 45°F or below ^[3].

Market analysis indicates a strong probability for the consensus temperature range. The implied distribution from prediction markets suggests that the 44-47°F consensus range holds approximately 92-96% probability ^[2]. The main risk for deviation leans towards an upside, with a 48-49°F high temperature carrying about 42% probability on Kalshi's live book ^[2]. Conversely, the probability for downside deviations, specifically temperatures of 44-45°F and those at or below 43°F, is considerably lower, collectively representing only about 6% ^[2]. The available information does not suggest frontal passage as a key meteorological catalyst for temperature deviation from the consensus range.

Sources (3)

9. What is the official data source for Boston's high temperature, and how will the reading at Logan Airport (KBOS) be reported throughout November 13 for market settlement?

Official Data Source	The Weather Company, Boston climate series CLIBOS ^[1]
Temperature Location	Boston Logan Airport (KBOS) ^[1]
Reporting Format	Whole-degree Fahrenheit maximum ^[1]

Boston's official high temperature source is The Weather Company. The official data source for Boston's high temperature for market settlement is The Weather Company, which references its Boston climate series CLIBOS ^[1]. The reading for settlement is taken at Boston Logan Airport (KBOS) and is reported as a whole-degree Fahrenheit maximum ^[1]. This reading is treated as intraday or preliminary until The Weather Company makes the final daily value available for settlement ^[1]. Although the reading comes from KBOS, the settlement label is CLIBOS ^[1].

The Weather Company provides the final daily settlement value. The final daily value for settlement is made available by The Weather Company, replacing the preliminary intraday readings ^[1]. National Weather Service examples indicate that CLIBOS climate reports publish the MAXIMUM temperature and its observed time, which is distinct from CF6 reports that publish only the daily MAX ^[2]^[3]. A status marked as "Final" on relevant platforms is only for informational purposes and does not eliminate the contract’s material-error or revision provisions ^[1].

Market settlement depends on the final maximum temperature range. For market outcomes, such as for November 13, the determination depends on which predefined temperature range contains the final maximum; these ranges can include categories such as ≤43°F, 44–45°F, 46–47°F, 48–49°F, 50–51°F, or ≥52°F ^[1]^[4]. Any displayed "favorite" range for a market, such as 46–47°F, reflects a market probability at the time it was viewed, not an official observation ^[1]^[4].

Sources (4)

10. How does the forecast for a mid-40s high on November 13, 2026, compare to Boston's historical average and record temperatures for this specific date?

Strongest temperature forecast	46–47°F (November 13, 2026) ^[1]^[2]
Prediction market confidence (Gemini)	90.2% (for 46–47°F) ^[1]
Prediction market confidence (Kalshi)	approximately 88.5% (for 46–47°F) ^[2]

Boston's forecast high for November 13, 2026, is a mid-40s temperature. The strongest contemporaneous forecast, derived from prediction markets, indicates a maximum temperature of 46–47°F for Boston on that specific date ^[1]^[2]. This temperature range is considered seasonally plausible for mid-November in Boston and aligns with the likely date-specific climatological average ^[3]^[4]^[5]. Prediction market indications for this 46–47°F range showed 90.2% probability on Gemini and approximately 88.5% on Kalshi ^[1]^[2].

Specific historical temperature records for November 13 are currently unverified. While a 46–47°F forecast would likely be near normal for mid-November, the exact historical average and record temperatures for this specific date have not been definitively established in the available research. Retrieved National Weather Service material primarily concerns monthly or seasonal summaries and does not provide specific record highs or lows for November 13 ^[3]^[4]^[5].

Sources (5)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Boston's high temperature for Friday, November 13, is forecast within a 42–43°F range ^[1]^[2]^[3]. A materially bearish pattern includes chilly rain, wind, mostly cloudy skies, north winds of 15–20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, and an 80% rain chance for Friday ^[1]^[3]. The primary upside risk to a low-high-temperature thesis involves forecast uncertainty around afternoon clearing or potential model error ^[1]. Foreca's hourly forecast permitted 43°F through the afternoon, while WCVB's operational forecast used 42°F ^[1]^[2].

The near-term catalyst sequence includes overnight rain and wind extending into Friday morning, with the likely high temperature occurring during the afternoon ^[1]^[3]. Cloudiness and cooling are expected Friday night, dropping temperatures into the upper 30s ^[1]^[3]. A gradual warming trend follows, with WCVB forecasting 44°F for Saturday, 49°F for Sunday, 52°F for Tuesday, 56°F for Wednesday, and 60°F for Thursday ^[1]. Weather prediction-market prices may fluctuate with updates from NWS and the National Blend of Models ^[4]. Daily contracts can settle based on a designated station and official observation methodology; contract rules for Boston require verification ^[4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Strike Date: November 14, 2026
Expiration: November 20, 2026
Closes: November 14, 2026

Sources (4)

12. Keep Exploring

More Daily temperature markets See more daily temperature setups in the same theme. Browse all Climate and Weather markets Keep exploring adjacent climate and weather markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

KXHIGHTBOS-26NOV11-T61: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
KXHIGHTBOS-26NOV11-T54: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
KXHIGHTBOS-26NOV11-B60.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
KXHIGHTBOS-26NOV11-B58.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
KXHIGHTBOS-26NOV11-B56.5: YES (Nov 12, 2026)

Highest temperature in Boston on Nov 13, 2026?

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: 46° to 47°

📈 November 13, 2026: 54.0pp spike

Outcome: 48° to 49°

📈 November 12, 2026: 12.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. How do the high temperature forecasts for Boston on Nov 13 from the National Weather Service (NWS), WCVB StormTeam 5, and Groundhog.markets' ensemble models compare?

7. What underlying meteorological model data supports the prediction markets (Kalshi, Robinhood) pricing a higher temperature range (46-49°F) than local media forecasts (42-43°F)?

8. What are the key meteorological catalysts on November 13, such as the timing of rainfall or frontal passage, that could cause the actual high temperature to settle significantly outside the 44-47°F consensus range?

9. What is the official data source for Boston's high temperature, and how will the reading at Logan Airport (KBOS) be reported throughout November 13 for market settlement?

10. How does the forecast for a mid-40s high on November 13, 2026, compare to Boston's historical average and record temperatures for this specific date?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: 46° to 47°

📈 November 13, 2026: 54.0pp spike

Outcome: 48° to 49°

📈 November 12, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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Prediction Markets

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Developers

Company