Short Answer

The highest temperature in Minneapolis on November 13, 2026, is expected to range between 39° and 40°, with the market pricing this outcome at 73.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's downward trend reflects a growing consensus that the high temperature in Minneapolis will settle above 37°F. Updated official weather forecasts were the primary driver. The National Weather Service (NWS) Twin Cities forecast on November 13 for a high "near 40°F" directly strengthened the case for a warmer outcome. This caused a significant price increase in markets for the 39-40°F range, which in turn drew probability away from the colder "37°F or less" contract.
A day earlier, on November 12, widespread local news coverage of a shift to colder, winter-like temperatures also helped solidify expectations around the 39-40°F mark. Reports from KSTP, CBS Minnesota, and FOX 9 detailed the coming cold but centered forecasts in a range that made an outcome of 37°F or less appear less likely. This news reportedly drove an 11.0 percentage point spike in the implied probability for the "39° to 40°" outcome, corresponding with a decline in this market.
  • 39-40°F remains favored; NWS forecasts consistently projected a high near 40°F.
  • Prediction markets and NWS Chanhassen soaring forecasts also reinforce 39-40°F.
  • 37-38°F draws support from local forecasts predicting highs in the upper 30s.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
41° to 42° 15.0% 9.3% NWS forecasts consistently indicated a high near 40°F, providing minimal direct support for this range.
39° to 40° 73.0% 81.8% Multiple NWS forecasts on November 12 and early November 13, 2026, call for a high near 40°F.
37° to 38° 13.0% 14.2% Several local forecasts suggested a high in the "upper 30s" or specifically 37°F for the day.
43° to 44° 2.0% 1.6% All available forecasts point to significantly colder temperatures, lacking specific evidence for this range.
36° or below 2.0% 81.8% Outside deterministic model scope.

Current Context

Forecasts predict a cold day, with prediction markets aligning on 39-40°F. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for Minneapolis on November 13, 2026, indicated sunny conditions with a high near 40°F, falling to approximately 36°F in the afternoon, and a low around 24°F, with NNE winds at about 5 mph [1][2]. Weather Underground's forecast for KMSP echoed this with 39°F/26°F and mostly sunny skies [3]. Prediction markets price the high temperature band similarly; Gemini showed a 76.1% implied probability for 39-40°F (versus 41-42°F at 11.7%) as of Nov 13, 2026 7:15 AM UTC [4]. Kalshi's market on the same date priced 39-40°F at 64% (a 7-point increase) and 37-38°F at 20% [5]. Both markets resolve on November 14, 2026, based on the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for Twin Cities MN [4][5]. The NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen Area Forecast Discussion (1:57 AM CST Fri Nov 13, 2026) confirmed lows in the low 20s under Canadian high pressure, with Friday afternoon highs in the 30s despite sunshine [6]. KSTP's forecast (Nov 12, 2026) also anticipated highs in the upper 30s [7].
Cooler air followed mild period, setting up historically cold November 13. Early provisional observations at Minneapolis-St Paul International Airport on November 13, 2026, recorded 27°F at 12:25 AM and 29°F at 12:53 AM, reflecting a cold start to the day [1]. This day was tracking as one of the coldest November 13ths on record, potentially within the top 10% coldest highs [1]. The historical context shows a Nov 13 record high of 71°F (1999) and a record low of 0°F (1986), with the 1991-2020 average high for this date being 43°F and average low 29°F [1][8]. A significant cooldown preceded this, with Minneapolis's Friday Nov 13 15Z forecast moving 7.5°F colder across eight model runs from 42.4°F (Nov 6 06Z cycle) to 34.9°F (Nov 8 00Z cycle) [9]. Weather Underground's daily observations confirmed this sharp shift, noting a high of 40°F on Nov 12 after highs predominantly in the 50s and 60s during the first eleven days of November [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Minneapolis, MN weather on November 13: record high 71°F (1999), low 0°F (1986)weatherbits.com
  2. 2SFT from KMPXkamala.cod.edu
  3. 3Minneapolis, MN Weather Calendar | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  4. 4Highest temperature in Minneapolis on November 13, 2026? - Compare Gemini vs Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Highest temperature in Minneapolis tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  6. 6CurtisZM Weather - MPX Forecast Discussioncurtiszmweather.com
  7. 7Coldest temperatures in over 7 months - KSTP.com 5 Eyewitness Newskstp.com
  8. 8November Climate Calendar for Minneapolis/St. Paulfiles.dnr.state.mn.us
  9. 9Minneapolis's forecast for Friday has moved 7°F colder — The Forecast Postforecastpost.com
  10. 10Minneapolis, MN Weather History | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 November 13, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 62.0% to 73.0%

Outcome: 39° to 40°

What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point spike in the "39° to 40°" outcome was updated official weather forecasts for Minneapolis on November 13, 2026. The NWS Twin Cities forecast, issued at 1:57 AM CST on November 13, 2026, announced a high "near 40°F," aligning directly with the market's favored outcome [1]. This specific forecast, following a significant -7.5°F downward revision in the forecast for Friday (Nov 13) between November 6 and November 8, likely caused the market to consolidate probabilities around this precise temperature range [2]. Social media activity was not mentioned as a factor in the provided information.

📈 November 12, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 53.0% to 64.0%

Outcome: 39° to 40°

What happened: The 11.0 percentage point spike in the "39° to 40°" outcome on November 12, 2026, was primarily driven by extensive local news coverage announcing a dramatic shift to colder, winterlike temperatures in Minneapolis [3]. Reports from KSTP's Ken Barlow, CBS Minnesota, FOX 9, and MPR detailed the arrival of the coldest air since April and highs in the 30s and low 40s, a significant reversal from the 55–61°F highs observed just days prior [4]. This sudden change in the weather forecast directly supported the "39° to 40°" prediction, with the dramatic shift also driving social media attention as a contributing accelerant [3]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, amplifying the news of the sudden temperature drop.
Sources (4)
  1. 1CurtisZM Weather - MPX Forecast Discussioncurtiszmweather.com
  2. 2Minneapolis's forecast for Friday has moved 7°F colder — The Forecast Postforecastpost.com
  3. 3Ken Barlow says the coldest air since April is moving in todayedina.mncurrent.com
  4. 4Minneapolis, MN Weather History | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For this market, a YES resolution occurs if the highest temperature in Minneapolis on the specified date falls within the chosen temperature range; a NO resolution occurs if it falls outside that range. The market pertains to the highest temperature on the date indicated in the market ID (e.g., November 13, 2026), with a maximum payout date of November 14, 2026. In cases of a material error in the initial data, expiration may be delayed until a corrected revision or the Expiration Date, after which, if no data is available, markets resolve to the last fair price determined by the exchange.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
39° to 40° $0.74 $0.27 73%
41° to 42° $0.11 $0.90 15%
37° to 38° $0.13 $0.88 13%
36° or below $0.02 $0.99 2%
43° to 44° $0.02 $0.99 2%
45° or above $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Forecasts from the National Weather Service and Weather Underground for November 13, 2026, indicate a high near 39°F [1]. Prediction markets largely align, with Kalshi showing 64% and CoinRithm 76.1% probability for 39–40°F [2]. The final official value is expected to be recorded in the NWS Daily Climatological Report for Twin Cities MN/KMSP [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  2. 2Highest temperature in Minneapolis tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  3. 3Minneapolis, MN weather on November 13: record high 71°F (1999), low 0°F (1986)weatherbits.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 64 Caution

Integrity risk· Resolution quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score73Good

Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score30High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score64Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
89Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
85Strong

No privileged early knowledge

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
30High Risk

No suspicious activity on any screen

Settlement depends on interpretation — verify the rules and source before trading.

Resolution rules read: Ambiguous

Liquidity
60Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

4 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

41° to 42°18
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

37° to 38°38
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

43° to 44°40
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

39° to 40°77
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
69Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

4 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

43° to 44°62
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

41° to 42°66
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

39° to 40°69
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

37° to 38°—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40Ambiguous

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

4 contracts · worst first · 2 below the volume floor — not scored

39° to 40°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
41° to 42°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
37° to 38°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
43° to 44°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
30High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 37 (notional-weighted across 4 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.7c slippage (<1% of a 73.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

2 below the volume floor — not scored

39° to 40°Primary40Market scoreLiquidity77Move quality69Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
77 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
69 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
41° to 42°18Market scoreLiquidity18Move quality66Rule clarity40
Why 18
Liquidity
18 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
66 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
37° to 38°38Market scoreLiquidity38Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 38
Liquidity
38 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
43° to 44°40Market scoreLiquidity40Move quality62Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
40 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
62 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 13, 2026

6. How do the November 13, 2026 high-temperature forecasts from the NWS, KSTP, and Weather Underground compare in methodology and recent accuracy for Minneapolis?

Gemini Market Resolution SourceNWS Climatological Report (Daily) for Twin Cities MN [1]
Kalshi Market Resolution SourceThe Weather Company's CLIMSP maximum temperature [2]
November 13, 2026 Favorite Forecast39 R 40°F [1][2]
NWS forecasts are updated regularly and often align with market predictions. The National Weather Service issues location-specific point forecasts multiple times daily [3]. Prediction markets, such as Gemini, resolve high-temperature forecasts for Minneapolis on November 13, 2026, based on the first published NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for Twin Cities MN [1]. Recent data from Kalshi prediction markets for Minneapolis daily-highs indicate that well-calibrated market pricing typically tracks the NWS reported maximum within a favored 2-degree Fahrenheit range [4][5][6][7][8].
Weather Underground forecasts are resolved differently and have similar market expectations. For Weather Underground, the Kalshi market for Minneapolis high temperatures on November 13, 2026, settles via The Weather Company's maximum temperature at Minneapolis (CLIMSP) [2]. Kalshi's rules note that preliminary Weather Company data may differ from final values due to factors such as rounding or conversion, a relevant caveat when comparing Weather Underground's reported highs against NWS observations [2]. While NWS and Weather Underground rely on distinct official resolution sources for prediction markets, both currently indicate 39-40°F as the favorite high temperature for Minneapolis on November 13, 2026 [1][2]. A one-degree Fahrenheit difference between these observation sources could theoretically lead to outcomes falling into different 2-degree temperature buckets [1][2].
KSTP's forecast details and specific predictions are currently unavailable. The provided research does not contain information regarding KSTP's forecasting methodology or its recent accuracy for Minneapolis. Additionally, the bound facts do not include specific high-temperature forecasts from NWS, KSTP, or Weather Underground for November 13, 2026; only the current prediction market consensus for that date is available.
Sources (8)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Minneapolis on November 13, 2026? - Compare Gemini vs Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Nov 13, 2026? - Compare Kalshi vs Gemini Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  4. 4Minneapolis Weather on Oct 12, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  5. 5Minneapolis Weather on Oct 11, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  6. 6Minneapolis Weather on Oct 17, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  7. 7Minneapolis Weather on Oct 22, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  8. 8Minneapolis Weather on Oct 16, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com

7. What evidence from the NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen Area Forecast Discussion supports a high temperature in the 39°F-40°F range for November 13, 2026?

Forecast High Temperature39°F–40°F for Minneapolis on November 13, 2026 (NWS Chanhassen) [1]
Temperature for Lift39°F (NWS Chanhassen) [1]
NWS Twin Cities Map Update12:56 a.m. CST on November 13, 2026 [2]
NWS Chanhassen forecast predicted a 39-40°F high for November 13. The National Weather Service (NWS) Chanhassen soaring forecast, prepared on November 12, projected a high temperature for Minneapolis on November 13, 2026, to be in the 39°F–40°F range. This prediction specifically noted a 39°F temperature as necessary for atmospheric lift, alongside upper-air temperatures of −6°C at both 3,000 and 5,000 feet and −9°C at 7,000 feet [1]. These conditions are consistent with a cold lower-tropospheric environment, supporting a surface high temperature around 39°F–40°F [1]. An anomalous 'Maximum Temperature for the day: 82 Deg F' found on the indexed soaring page was disregarded due to its clear inconsistency with the established cold-air context of November 12 [1].
Additional NWS sources confirm a pattern of colder weather. The NWS Twin Cities' main page further supported this forecast by confirming it was publishing same-day information for November 13, 2026, with its most recent map update recorded at 12:56 a.m. CST on that date [2]. Moreover, the NWS Weather Story corroborated the expectation that colder weather would persist into the upcoming weekend [3]. This aligns with a relatively low high temperature in Minneapolis for November 13, rather than suggesting a warmer reading [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Soaring Forecast - NWS Twin Citiesweather.gov
  2. 2Twin Cities, MNweather.gov
  3. 3Weather Storyweather.gov

8. What short-term atmospheric changes could cause Minneapolis's high temperature to deviate significantly from forecasts on the morning of November 13, 2026?

NWS Forecast High Nov 13, 202639°F (NWS Minneapolis point guidance) [1][2]
NWS Forecast Low Nov 13, 202624°F (NWS Minneapolis point guidance) [1][2]
Market Indications High Temp39-40°F [3][4][5]
Minneapolis's November 13, 2026 forecast predicted mild, sunny conditions. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for that morning indicated a high temperature near 39°F and a low near 24°F, with sunny conditions and a north wind around 5 mph [1][2]. Specifically, text forecasts summarized the low at 23–25°F and the high at 39–40°F [1][2], while the NWS tabular forecast listed Minneapolis at 25/39°F with zero-percent precipitation probabilities for the daytime [6]. Market indications for the high temperature also centered on 39–40°F [3][4][5].
Several atmospheric changes could lead to significantly lower temperatures. For a materially lower high temperature outcome, the most plausible conditions would involve clouds or precipitation persisting into the daytime heating period, stronger cold air advection, or reduced atmospheric mixing [3]. The NWS area discussion noted that persistent cloud cover could potentially keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than model predictions, while extensive clearing could lead to colder overnight temperatures [7].
Materially higher temperatures require specific, currently unindicated atmospheric shifts. A significantly higher temperature would necessitate anomalous clearing, weaker cold airflow, or a warm-sector effect with a corresponding wind shift [3]. However, the retrieved guidance did not strongly indicate any of these conditions for a materially higher outcome [3]. It is important to note that the available evidence is incomplete for a real-time nowcast, as the NWS point forecast was last updated on November 12, and no final climatological report or observed daily maximum was available [3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  2. 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  3. 3Highest temperature in Minneapolis on November 13, 2026? - Compare Gemini vs Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Nov 13, 2026? - Compare Kalshi vs Gemini Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  7. 7National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov

9. What is the official data source and reporting timeline used by the NWS to determine the final high temperature for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport on November 13, 2026?

Official Data SourceNWS Climatological Report (Daily) for Twin Cities MN, MN (station CLIMSP) [1]
Report Issuing OfficeNWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen [2][3][4]
Market Settlement DateNovember 14, 2026 [5][6]
The NWS Climatological Report serves as the official temperature source. The official data source for the highest temperature in Minneapolis on November 13, 2026, is the first published version of the National Weather Service (NWS) Climatological Report (Daily) for Twin Cities MN, MN (station CLIMSP) [1]. This specific report, also known as the CLIMSP daily climate report (product CLI), is issued by NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen [2][3][4].
Daily climate reports follow a specific issuance timeline. NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen issues multiple versions of this daily climate report. Intraday versions are valid as of 4:00 PM local time [2][3][4], exemplified by an October 16, 2026 report that was issued at 4:54 PM CDT [2][3][4]. The final versions, which summarize "YESTERDAY's" data, are typically issued the following morning around 1:30 AM CDT [2][3][4]. For instance, an October 18, 2026 summary was issued at 1:34 AM CDT on October 19, 2026 [2][3][4]. The relevant market for this data is scheduled to settle on November 14, 2026 [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Minneapolis on November 13, 2026? - Compare Gemini vs Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  3. 3National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  4. 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  5. 5Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  6. 6Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

10. How do the implied probabilities from the Kalshi and Gemini prediction markets compare to the deterministic NWS forecast high for November 13, 2026?

NWS Forecast High39°F (Minneapolis, Nov 13, 2026) [1][2]
Market Implied Probability (39-40°F)74% to 76.1% [1][2]
Adjacent Range ProbabilityApproximately 11% (for 37-38°F and 41-42°F) [1][2]
Prediction markets align with NWS forecast for Minneapolis temperature. The Kalshi and Gemini prediction markets consistently indicate a central estimate for Minneapolis's high temperature on November 13, 2026, aligning with the National Weather Service (NWS) deterministic forecast of 39°F [1][2]. Both markets assign a substantial implied probability mass, ranging from approximately 74% to 76.1%, to the 39°–40°F outcome for that specific date [1][2].
Markets provide uncertainty quantification and exhibit nuanced differences. While the markets largely agree on the modal outcome of 39°–40°F, they present some nuanced differences. Gemini, for instance, shows a slightly higher concentration on this favored temperature range and assigns a slightly greater probability to outcomes of 41°–42°F compared to Kalshi, while indicating a lower probability for the 37°–38°F range [1][2]. A key benefit of these prediction markets is their ability to quantify uncertainty, which deterministic forecasts like the NWS high do not express. They indicate, for example, roughly 11% probability for outcomes between 37°–38°F and another 11% for 41°–42°F [1][2]. Furthermore, the resolution sources for these markets diverge, with Kalshi referencing The Weather Company and Gemini utilizing the NWS Daily Climatological Report, a distinction that could influence results, particularly at temperature bucket boundaries [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Nov 13, 2026? - Compare Kalshi vs Gemini Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Highest temperature in Minneapolis on November 13, 2026? - Compare Gemini vs Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Kalshi 'Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Nov 13, 2026' market prices 39°–40° at 64% (up 7), with 37°–38° at 20% and 41°–42° at 22% [1]. The Gemini-listed market shows 39°–40° at 76.1% with a 4.0pt spread, resolving Nov 14, 2026, based on the NWS Daily Climatological Report for Twin Cities [2]. The NWS Twin Cities forecast, issued Nov 12, 2026 at 9:26pm, projected a sunny Friday Nov 13 high near 40°F, falling to ~36°F in the afternoon, and a low near 24°F [3]. For low temperatures on Nov 13, 2026, Kalshi prices 27° or above at 56%, with 25°–26° at 32% [4]. Early provisional MSP readings showed 28–29°F overnight [3]. A Canadian high-pressure system is expected to bring below-normal temperatures through Saturday, with highs in the 30s, before a warmup of 15–20° above-normal anomalies by midweek, potentially reaching 60s on Wednesday–Thursday [5][6].
A strong-to-very-strong 'Super El Niño' (Niño3.4 +2.75°C week ending Nov 8) supports rice, palm oil, sugar, coffee, and cocoa markets [7][8]. The JMA on Nov 10 stated this is the strongest intensity on record, with a 100% chance to persist to boreal spring 2027 [8]. Indonesia warned El Niño could cut 3Mt of palm oil production [9]. The WMO indicates a high chance this is the strongest El Niño since 1950 [8]. Conversely, El Niño-linked warmer northern winters reduce US natural gas heating demand, and wetter US/South America conditions can push soybean yields above trend [7]. Despite a hot US CPI print and a dollar at a 19-month high driving broad grain selling (Kansas wheat -2.70%, Chicago wheat -2.54%), soybeans rose 3.9% for the week on Nov 13 due to WASDE tightening and Chinese buying [7]. Globally, October 2026 was the warmest October on record (1.75°C above pre-industrial, Copernicus), and 2026 is 'virtually certain' to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial [8][10]. AllianceBernstein characterizes Super El Niño as a cross-asset stress test [10].
Several key dates could influence market probabilities. The Kalshi/Gemini Minneapolis high-temp market resolves Nov 13, 2026, per the NWS report [2]. The US Drought Monitor weekly map and NOAA CPC long-lead DJF forecast are due Nov 19 at 12:00pm ET [11]. COP31 climate talks conclude Nov 20 in Antalya, Türkiye [8]. The NASA GISTEMP November 2026 release is Dec 9 at 11am ET [12]. This is followed by the December WASDE on Dec 10 at 12pm ET, and the next JMA El Niño outlook/CPC ENSO discussion [13][8]. Copernicus's November bulletin is scheduled for early December [8]. As of Nov 3, 43.4% of the lower 48 US states were in drought [8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 14, 2026
  • Expiration: November 20, 2026
  • Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (13)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Minneapolis tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2Highest temperature in Minneapolis on November 13, 2026? - Compare Gemini vs Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Minneapolis, MN weather on November 13: record high 71°F (1999), low 0°F (1986)weatherbits.com
  4. 4Lowest temperature in Minneapolis tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  5. 5CurtisZM Weather - MPX Forecast Discussioncurtiszmweather.com
  6. 6Coldest temperatures in over 7 months - KSTP.com 5 Eyewitness Newskstp.com
  7. 7Daily Market Wire 13 November 2026 - Grain Centralgraincentral.com
  8. 8Weekly Global Climate Pulse: Thursday, November 12, 2026orbisweather.com
  9. 9UN Warning on Record El Niño Raises Risk for Palm Oil and Global Agri Markets — CMB Newscommodity-board.com
  10. 10Super El Niño: The 30,000-Foot View for Investors – AdvisorAnalyst.comadvisoranalyst.com
  11. 11CPC - Long-Lead Forecast Release Schedule for 2026cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  12. 12Data.GISS: GISTEMP Surface Temperature Analysis: Release Dates Scheduledata.giss.nasa.gov
  13. 13WASDE Report Schedule 2026 - Commodity Fundamentalscommodityfundamentals.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXHIGHTMIN-26NOV11-T55: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTMIN-26NOV11-T48: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTMIN-26NOV11-B54.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTMIN-26NOV11-B52.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTMIN-26NOV11-B50.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)