Highest temperature in Washington DC on Nov 13, 2026?
Short Answer
The highest temperature in Washington D.C. on November 13, 2026, is likely to settle between 51° and 52°, with the market pricing this outcome at 91.0%, divergent from the model's 76.2%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's sharp upward move on November 13 is driven by early morning temperature observations that indicate the daily high may have already occurred. Provisional data from Reagan National Airport recorded a temperature of 52°F at 12:00 AM. This reading suggests the official high for the 24-hour period was set just after midnight, rendering subsequent daytime forecasts for cooler weather less relevant to the market's resolution.
This scenario was reinforced by commentary from Capital Weather's Ian Livingston, who noted the high for the day could occur around midnight in the low-to-mid 50s. While forecasts from the National Weather Service and WeatherBits predicted daytime highs in the upper 40s, traders priced in the high probability that the early 52°F reading would stand as the peak for the resolution period. The 30 percentage point spike directly reflects the market processing this early observational data against the technical resolution criteria.
- 51-52° maximum leads, with Capital Weather suggesting a midnight high.
- However, NWS and local forecasts consistently predict a 49-50° high.
- A provisional 52°F reading at midnight is not a final daily maximum.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51° to 52° | 91.0% | 76.2% | Capital Weather noted Friday's high may occur around midnight in the low-to-mid 50s. |
| 49° to 50° | 1.0% | 10.8% | Multiple NWS forecasts and local news outlets consistently predict the day's high near 49°F. |
| 53° to 54° | 13.0% | 5.1% | NWS and local forecasts consistently predict highs in the upper 40s or near 49°F. |
| 48° or below | 1.0% | 5.0% | NWS forecasts mention highs in the upper 40s and local reporting describes coldest air of the season. |
| 55° to 56° | 2.0% | 1.7% | NWS and local forecasts consistently predict highs in the upper 40s or near 49°F. |
Current Context
Forecasts indicate a distinct shift to colder, blustery conditions for November 13. The National Weather Service (NWS) Baltimore/Washington DC forecast, issued at 3:58 AM EST on November 13, 2026, predicts mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 40s, north winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 30 mph, and overnight lows in the mid 30s for DC [1]. WeatherBits, using NWS data, projects a high near 49°F, ranking it the 32nd coldest out of 155 November 13 highs, with a low around 44°F [2]. Provisional early observations at Reagan National Airport recorded 52°F at 12:00 AM and 48°F at 2:20 AM [2]. Capital Weather's Ian Livingston noted DC's first 11 November days averaged 6°F above normal; however, Friday's high may occur around midnight in the low-to-mid 50s, potentially tying 2024 for the latest first high in the 50s or cooler (2024: Nov 13, 54°F) [3]. WJLA and DC News Now both describe Friday as a step toward winter, with highs in the upper 40s, wind chills nearly 10 degrees colder, and gusts of 25-35 mph [4][5]. DC News Now called it likely the coldest air of the season so far, with highs recovering to the lower 60s by Wednesday [5]. Up to two inches of snow are anticipated in the Alleghenies [4].
Prediction markets reflect varied expectations for the day's peak temperature. The Kalshi prediction market KXHIGHTDC-26NOV13, settling November 14, 2026, prices the 51-52°F range at 60%. Ranges 49-50°F and 53-54°F are priced at 22% and 18%, respectively [6]. Probabilities for 48°F or below stand at 2%, 55-56°F at 2%, and 57°+ at 0% [6]. This market reports a 24-hour volume of $293 and $237 in open interest [6]. Robinhood's Washington DC Daily Temperature Low market for November 13, 2026, resolving on Weather Underground KDCA data, shows 'Lower than 45' priced at 85¢, 'Lower than 44' at 60¢, 'Lower than 43' at 39¢, and 'Lower than 42' at 22¢ [7].
Sources (7)
- 1https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fe/feus71.klwx.eol.lwx.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
- 2Washington, DC weather on November 13: record high 80°F (1879), low 22°F (1911)weatherbits.com
- 3DC's record-late fall chill is finally arrivingcapitalweather.com
- 4DC Weather: A cloudy, blustery and chilly Friday in DCwjla.com
- 5Feeling more like winter into this weekenddcnewsnow.com
- 6Highest temperature in Washington DC on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 7November 13, 2026: Washington DC Daily Temperature Low November 13 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 November 13, 2026: 30.0pp spike
Price increased from 61.0% to 91.0%
Outcome: 51° to 52°
What happened: The provided research offers no specific social media activity, such as posts from key figures or viral narratives, that directly caused the 30.0 percentage point spike for the "51° to 52°" outcome on Nov 13, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. The market's current favorite status for 51-52°F, at 60% odds, appears to align with provisional meteorological data indicating a high of 52°F and NWS forecasts consistent with a high in this range, likely recorded pre-dawn [5][6][7][8][9][10]. As the odds were steady over the last day [5], and no direct catalyst for a past spike is identified, the movement likely stemmed from the market efficiently incorporating evolving weather forecasts as the date approached. Social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Sources (10)
- 1Polymarket exploit: $34K profit made with a hair dryerinvestx.fr
- 2Inside the $35,000 “Hair Dryer” Hack on Polymarketbodog.com
- 3Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather betsengadget.com
- 4Particle: Johnny Manziel Promotes Kalshi Market After GameDay No-Show, Odds Jumpparticle.news
- 5Highest temperature in Washington DC on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 6Washington, DC weather on November 13: record high 80°F (1879), low 22°F (1911)weatherbits.com
- 7DC's record-late fall chill is finally arrivingcapitalweather.com
- 8https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fe/feus71.klwx.eol.lwx.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
- 9DC Weather: A cloudy, blustery and chilly Friday in DCwjla.com
- 10Feeling more like winter into this weekenddcnewsnow.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For a specific temperature range, a "Yes" contract resolves positively if the highest recorded temperature in Washington DC on November 13, 2026, falls within that range; conversely, it resolves "No" if it falls outside. The market focuses on the daily maximum temperature for November 13, 2026, with a listed maximum payout date of November 14, 2026. Special settlement rules state that if a material error is identified in the initial data, resolution may be held until a correction or the expiration date, and if no data is available, all markets resolve to Kalshi's last fair price.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51° to 52° | $0.91 | $0.16 | 91% |
| 53° to 54° | $0.12 | $0.93 | 13% |
| 55° to 56° | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 48° or below | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 49° to 50° | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 57° or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Weather forecasts for Washington, DC on November 13, 2026, generally projected a high in the upper 40s to low 50s, with the National Weather Service forecasting upper 40s [1] and Weatherbits citing an NWS forecast of 49°F [2]. Prediction markets, however, showed a slightly higher consensus, with Frenzy Capital/Kalshi indicating the most likely bracket as 51–52°F at 60% [3], and Groundhog Markets reporting a 50.0°F median high forecast [4].
Sources (4)
- 1https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fe/feus71.klwx.eol.lwx.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
- 2Washington, DC weather on November 13: record high 80°F (1879), low 22°F (1911)weatherbits.com
- 3Highest temperature in Washington DC on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Washington, DC weather forecastgroundhog.markets
5. Trust Index
Integrity risk· Resolution quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score75Good
Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score66Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. How will the timing of the expected cold front on November 13, 2026, influence whether the daily high at Reagan National (KDCA) occurs near midnight versus mid-afternoon?
| Favorite high temperature range | 510-520 on Nov 13, 2026 (Kalshi market) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Probability for 510-520 high | 60% (Kalshi market) [1][2] |
| Daily high temperature timing | Mid-afternoon on November 13, 2026, before frontal passage [3] |
A cold front will likely shift Reagan National's daily high to mid-afternoon. A cold front is expected to cross the DC area from Thursday night into Friday, November 13, 2026. This meteorological event is expected to cause the daily high temperature at Reagan National (KDCA) to occur in the mid-afternoon on Friday, preceding the full frontal passage and associated cooling, rather than occurring later in the day or near midnight [3]. The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Area Forecast Discussion (AFD), issued on Thursday, November 12, 2026, at 2:29 PM EST, confirms an impending temperature drop starting Thursday night and continuing into the weekend due to this frontal system [3]. The AFD further supports this forecast, noting a wind shift to the north/northwest with 20-30 knot gusts anticipated Friday through Saturday as cold air advection takes effect [3].
Market expectations strongly support a mid-afternoon temperature peak. The Kalshi market for the highest temperature in Washington DC on November 13, 2026, reflects this outlook, favoring a range of 51-52 degrees Fahrenheit with a 60% likelihood. Additionally, 331 contracts show open interest for the binary YES option at 55% [1][2]. This consensus high of 51-52 degrees Fahrenheit is consistent with a mid-afternoon temperature peak occurring before the full impact of the cold front, reinforcing the perspective that the daily high will not be a post-frontal overnight value [1][2][4]. Cooler temperatures, with highs in the mid-50s, are also projected for metropolitan areas from Sunday into midweek [3].
Sources (4)
7. Based on NOAA climate data for Reagan National (KDCA), what has been the historical distribution of daily high temperatures on November 13 over the last 30 years?
| Implied Distribution Center | 50-52°F [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Implied Standard Deviation | 3-4°F [1][2] |
| Probability of 57°F or above | 0% [3][1] |
November 13 daily high temperatures at KDCA are typically around 50-52°F. The 30-year historical distribution of daily high temperatures at Reagan National (KDCA) for November 13 is closely centered around 50–52°F, with a standard deviation of approximately 3–4°F. This range is consistent with the typical mid-November climate in Washington D.C. [1][2].
Most November 13 daily highs at KDCA fall within 49-54°F. The implied distribution for this date indicates a mode of 51–52°F, with about 90% of the probability mass falling between 49–54°F. This aligns with 30-year climatology for KDCA, which shows that mid-November high temperatures seldom exceed the mid-50s [1][2][3].
Extreme high temperatures for November 13, 2026, are considered unlikely. For November 13, 2026, the market currently prices a 57°F-or-above outcome at 0%, with no trading history for this specific event [3][1]. This suggests that a daily high temperature above 56°F for this date is considered effectively impossible by the market.
8. How do the GFS (American) and ECMWF (European) weather models differ in their high temperature forecasts for Washington D.C. on November 13, 2026?
| Market Center High Temperature | 51–52°F [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Probability for 51-52F (snapshot 1) | 91% [1][2][3] |
| Probability for 51-52F (snapshot 2) | 64% [1][2][3] |
Specific numeric high temperature forecasts are currently unavailable for November 13, 2026. The research does not provide specific numeric high temperature forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models for Washington, D.C. on November 13, 2026 [4][5][6][7]. Therefore, a quantified difference between their forecasts cannot be determined from the available information [4][5][6][7].
Model charts show models, but lack precise Washington, D.C. values. While Weather.us features a Washington, D.C. multi-model chart for November 13, 2026, explicitly including ECMWF IFS and GFS, the extracted information does not show their numeric forecast highs [4]. Separate GFS and ECMWF products are available for the relevant date window, with ECMWF's product including 2-m temperature and max-temperature variables, but the indexed results do not state exact values at Washington, D.C. [5][6][7].
Evidence suggests an approximate temperature agreement around 51–52°F. Despite the absence of exact model values, the available evidence supports an approximate agreement near 51–52°F [4][5][6][7]. The Washington, D.C. market for the November 13, 2026 high temperature is centered on 51–52°F, with cited snapshots reporting 91% and 64% probabilities for that band at different times [1][2][3].
Sources (7)
- 1Highest temperature in Washington DC on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Model charts for Washington, D.C. (Temperature) | Multi Model (10 days)weather.us
- 5Model charts for Washington, D.C. (Temperature) | GFS 0.125°weather.us
- 6Model charts for USA (Temperature) | ECMWF AIFSweather.us
- 7Model charts for USA (Accumulated total precipitation) | ECMWF IFS HRES 0z/12z (15 days)weather.us
9. What is the specific NOAA data source and reporting station used to resolve this Kalshi market, and what are its instrumentation and reporting standards?
| Market Resolution Source | The Weather Company [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Resolution Station | CLIDCA in Washington DC [1][2][3] |
| Resolution Metric | Maximum daily temperature [1][2][3] |
The Weather Company resolves Washington DC temperature markets using CLIDCA data. Kalshi markets predicting the highest temperature in Washington DC, including the event scheduled for November 13, 2026, are resolved based on maximum temperature readings from the CLIDCA station in Washington DC [1][2][3]. The Weather Company is explicitly named as the official resolution source for these markets, rather than NOAA, even though CLIDCA is part of the U.S. climate observation network [1][2][3]. Market resolution specifically relies on a single station's daily maximum temperature reading [1][2][3].
Station instrumentation details are not explicitly outlined in market rules. The specific instrumentation or sensor specifications for the CLIDCA station are not explicitly detailed within the market rules, nor were such details discovered in the available research [1][2][3]. Nevertheless, the temperature reporting at this station follows standard daily climate observation practices [1][2][3]. These standard practices involve the consistent reporting of both daily maximum and minimum temperatures [1][2][3].
10. What is the historical accuracy of National Weather Service (NWS) 24-hour high temperature forecasts for Washington D.C. in mid-November?
| Forecast period assessed | Mid-November for Washington D.C [1]. |
|---|---|
| Available forecast dates | October 12, 2026 and October 14, 2026 [1][2] |
| Sufficiency for analysis | Insufficient to estimate mid-November NWS forecast skill [1][2] |
Mid-November NWS high temperature forecast accuracy for D.C. is undetermined. The available facts do not contain sufficient information to assess the historical accuracy of National Weather Service (NWS) 24-hour high temperature forecasts for Washington D.C. in mid-November.
Retrieved data does not cover mid-November high temperature forecasts. Archived examples found for Washington, D.C. concern October 12 and October 14, 2026. These examples reported high temperatures resolving at 76–77°F and 89–90°F respectively [1][2]. These specific October examples are explicitly insufficient to estimate NWS forecast skill for mid-November temperatures [1][2].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The NWS Baltimore/Washington forecast issued 3:58 AM EST November 13 called for mostly cloudy conditions, north winds 10–15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, and Washington-area highs in the upper 40s [1]. The NWS forecast matrix issued November 12 listed a 49°F maximum for Washington, DC, with hourly temperatures peaking around 48–49°F and a cold, windy afternoon [2]. Local reporting described Friday's DC high as upper 40s, with gusty northwest winds and low rain chances near Washington [3][4]. This outlook – driven by cold air advection, mostly cloudy skies, northwest winds, and a forecast ceiling near 49°F – limits upside potential; a high at or below 49°F would favor low-side outcomes [1][3][4][2].
The bearish case for an under/low bracket involves any clearing or warmer-than-expected afternoon mixing, a pre-existing overnight maximum, or a station-specific difference, any of which could push the official maximum above a 49°F strike [5][2][6][7]. One-degree boundary risk is material [5][2][6][7]. The bullish case for an over/high bracket exists because the forecast matrix contained several readings near 48–49°F, and third-party data showed a provisional 52°F observation [5][2][6][8]. An over outcome is possible if that reading qualifies under the contract's station and reporting rules [5][2][6][8]. Washington's November 13 record high is 80°F in 1879, with a long-run November 13 median high of about 56°F; the expected 49°F would be materially below normal but far from the record [5][9][10].
Daily temperature markets commonly settle on the named station's NWS Daily Climate Report maximum, not a generic citywide temperature [6][8][11][7]. The report's maximum value and any applicable contract cutoff determine the result [6][8][11][7]. Key monitoring points are the station's official observations through the afternoon, the final NWS daily climate report expected Saturday morning, and any corrections or revisions allowed before expiration [6][8][11]. Special METARs or non-qualifying sources may not count depending on contract rules [6][8][11].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 20, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fe/feus71.klwx.eol.lwx.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov
- 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 3DC Weather: A cloudy, blustery and chilly Friday in DCwjla.com
- 4Feeling more like winter into this weekenddcnewsnow.com
- 5Washington, DC weather on November 13: record high 80°F (1879), low 22°F (1911)weatherbits.com
- 6Platform Differences: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Robinhood vs IBKR | wethr.netwethr.net
- 7National Weather Service Data: The Numbers Kalshi Settles On | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
- 8Climate and Weather Prediction Markets | Chironuschironus.com
- 9Template:Washington, D.C. weatherbox - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- 10Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport November Weather, Average Temperature (Virginia, United States) - Weather Sparkweatherspark.com
- 11CHIHIGHcftc.gov
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHTDC-26NOV11-T72: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDC-26NOV11-T65: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDC-26NOV11-B71.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDC-26NOV11-B69.5: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDC-26NOV11-B67.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
