Highest temperature in Las Vegas on Nov 13, 2026?
Short Answer
The highest temperature in Las Vegas on November 13, 2026 is expected to fall between 73° and 74°, with the market pricing this range at 59.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's largest move, a 23.0 percentage point drop on November 13, was driven by updated weather forecasts for an incoming wind and rain system. A National Weather Service Wind Advisory for the Las Vegas area led traders to revise downward the probability of the high temperature reaching the 73° to 74°F range.
A preceding 17.0 percentage point spike on November 12 resulted from new NWS zone forecasts that placed the day's high between 69-73°F on the west side and 74-77°F on the east side of the city. This wide forecast band increased the market-implied probability of the temperature falling within the 73-74°F bracket. Subsequent forecasts from the NWS, KTNV, and FOX5 all converged on highs of 73°F or 74°F, supporting the market's focus on this range.
- The 73-74°F range leads, aligned with the Nov. 12 NWS forecast.
- The 71-72°F range benefits from downward revisions and incoming wind/rain.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71° to 72° | 30.0% | 35.8% | Local forecasts from Weather Underground and groundhog.markets suggest 72°F, supported by incoming wind and cloudiness. |
| 73° to 74° | 59.0% | 53.5% | Updated forecasts, including an NWS Wind Advisory, suggest downward temperature revisions due to an incoming system. |
| 70° or below | 4.0% | 4.1% | All current forecasts from the NWS and local sources predict temperatures of 72°F or higher. |
| 75° to 76° | 8.0% | 7.5% | All current forecasts from NWS and local outlets indicate maximum temperatures at or below 74°F. |
| 77° to 78° | 1.0% | 1.0% | No NWS or local forecast supports this high range; incoming winds are expected to suppress temperatures. |
Current Context
Las Vegas forecasts for November 13, 2026, center on a high temperature of 72-74°F. The National Weather Service (NWS) Las Vegas forecast, issued 10 p.m. PST November 12, called for 73°F in Las Vegas and Henderson Airport, with a 10% daytime precipitation probability [1]. The NWS point forecast matrix on November 13 at 2:01 a.m. showed a maximum of 74°F for the Las Vegas-Clark grid box [2]. Local forecasts generally align, with KTNV predicting 74°F, FOX5 73°F, and Weather Underground indicating 72°F [3][4][5]. The groundhog.markets median of nine free forecasts settled on a 72.0°F high, with a spread of 68.5-73.0°F, and a 55.5°F low as of 9:10 UTC [6]. Robinhood's prediction market for the November 13 daily high, which resolves on Weather Underground KLAS, showed higher odds for >71°F (78¢) and >72°F (41¢) than >73°F (20¢) and >74°F (9¢), implying a modal outcome between 72-73°F [7].
A Wind Advisory impacts western Clark County, including the Las Vegas Valley, until Saturday morning. The advisory, in effect from 10 a.m. Friday to 7 a.m. Saturday, warns of southwest winds at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph [4][8]. Peak gusts in the Las Vegas Valley could reach 30-40 mph, with up to 50 mph possible near Sandy Valley and Pahrump [4][8]. The NWS Las Vegas office noted increased precipitation chances beginning this weekend and extending into early next week as the weather pattern becomes more active, though confidence in exact details remains low [9]. The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook shows above-normal precipitation chances for November 14-18 across the Southwest [9]. Friday night carries a 50% rain chance, with rain clearing Saturday afternoon, leading to a high of 69°F [4][8].
Friday's projected high of ~73°F exceeds the historical normal for November 13. This temperature is 4-7 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal high of approximately 68°F for this date [9][4][8][10]. This follows a dry week with above-normal highs of 74-76°F from Monday through Thursday [9]. The forecast indicates cooler temperatures ahead, with highs of 67°F on Sunday and Monday, dropping to 61-62°F on Tuesday and Wednesday [4][8]. A new storm system is expected Monday through Wednesday, bringing a 50% rain chance Monday night and Tuesday [4][8]. Potential additional showers Thursday and Friday could affect the F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix scheduled for November 19-21 [11]. November 13-14 also marks the busiest concert weekend of the month, featuring the Eagles at Sphere, LISA, and Lionel Richie [11].
Sources (11)
- 1https://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/fpus01/KVEFatmos.albany.edu
- 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 3Windy with More Clouds on Fridayktnv.com
- 4Las Vegas Weather: Mostly Sunny Thursdayfox5vegas.com
- 5Las Vegas, NV Weather Calendar | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
- 6Las Vegas, NV weather forecastgroundhog.markets
- 7November 13, 2026: Las Vegas Daily Temperature High November 13 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 8Las Vegas Weather: Thursday Highs in the 70s, Friday Night Rainhoodline.com
- 9Above-average temperatures expected this week in Las Vegas; chance of rain creeps into weekend forecastlasvegassun.com
- 10Las Vegas Weather in November 2026: Temperature & Forecastlasvegaswonders.com
- 11Las Vegas in November 2026 by Date and Price | Vegas Guidevegas-guide.pro
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 November 13, 2026: 23.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 55.0%
Outcome: 73° to 74°
What happened: The primary driver of the 23.0 percentage point drop for the "73° to 74°" outcome was updated weather forecasts for an incoming wind and rain system affecting Las Vegas on November 13, 2026 [1]. These forecasts, including a National Weather Service Wind Advisory, likely led to a revision in market expectations for the daily high temperature, pushing probabilities away from the 73-74°F range [2]. The market move aligns with previous instances where similar temperature market shifts were attributed to updated NWS forecasts rather than social media activity [1]. Social media was not identified as a driver.
📈 November 12, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 53.0% to 70.0%
Outcome: 73° to 74°
What happened: The primary driver of the 17.0 percentage point spike in the "73° to 74°" outcome on November 12, 2026, was updated NWS zone forecasts for Friday, November 13 [3][4]. These forecasts, reported by local news, indicated highs ranging from 69-73°F on the west side to 74-77°F on the east side of Las Vegas, confirming the likelihood of the outcome [3][4][5]. Social media activity was explicitly not identified as a catalyst for this price movement [3][4]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant.
Sources (5)
- 1Las Vegas Weather: Thursday Highs in the 70s, Friday Night Rainhoodline.com
- 2Windy with More Clouds on Fridayktnv.com
- 3LAS - Las Vegas Harry Reid International Airport Current Weather and Airport Delay Conditionsflightstats.com
- 4Las Vegas Weather: Mostly Sunny Thursdayfox5vegas.com
- 5https://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/fpus01/KVEFatmos.albany.edu
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A 'YES' resolution for a specific temperature range occurs if the highest recorded temperature in Las Vegas on November 13, 2026, falls within that range; otherwise, it resolves to 'NO'. The maximum payout date is November 14, 2026. If a material error is found in the initial non-preliminary data, expiration may be delayed until a corrected revision or the expiration date. If no data is available, markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by the Exchange.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73° to 74° | $0.59 | $0.42 | 59% |
| 71° to 72° | $0.30 | $0.74 | 30% |
| 75° to 76° | $0.09 | $0.94 | 8% |
| 70° or below | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| 77° to 78° | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 79° or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The market discussion, as reflected in current contract prices, indicates a strong consensus that the highest temperature in Las Vegas on November 13, 2026, will be between 73° and 74°, currently holding a 59% chance. This dominant outcome has seen a significant increase in probability (up 9%), while the likelihood of temperatures between 71° to 72° has dropped sharply by 11% to 30%. Traders are heavily favoring "Yes" for the 73°-74° range and "No" for all significantly lower or higher temperature bands, reflecting a concentrated belief in this specific warmer outcome.
5. Trust Index
Integrity risk· Resolution quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score69Caution
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score62Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. How do the high temperature forecasts for November 13, 2026, from the National Weather Service (NWS) compare to those from local outlets like KTNV and private services like Weather Underground?
| NWS High Temperature Forecast (Nov 13, 2026) | Near 74°F [1] |
|---|---|
| NWS Forecast Revision | Upward revision of 9°F (from 65°F to 74°F) [1][2] |
| Prediction Market Sentiment | 73–74°F range favored at 72% [3][4][5][1] |
The National Weather Service updated its Las Vegas temperature forecast. The NWS initially predicted a high temperature of 65°F for November 13, 2026, based on a November 10 forecast [1][2]. However, this prediction was revised upward by nine degrees on November 12, with the latest NWS forecast anticipating a high temperature near 74°F for Las Vegas on the same Friday [1].
No direct comparison with local or private weather outlets was possible. Reliable, date-specific high-temperature values for November 13, 2026, from local outlets like KTNV or private services such as Weather Underground were not available in the research results [6][7][8][9][10]. Despite the absence of comparative data, a prediction market snapshot indicated strong alignment, with a Las Vegas maximum temperature outcome of 73–74°F favored by 72% [3][4][5]. This favored outcome closely matches the latest NWS forecast for November 13, 2026 [1].
Sources (10)
- 1National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 3Highest temperature in Las Vegas on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 6Tuesday's in the 90s, with an Extreme Heat Watch on the wayktnv.com
- 7Justin's Forecast: 80s Today, 90s Start Tomorrow, Breezy Memorial Day Weekendktnv.com
- 8High winds, slight cool down on the way across Southern Nevadaktnv.com
- 9Weekend Weather Changesktnv.com
- 10Justin's Forecast: Turning Windy with Afternoon Rain, Unsettle Week Aheadktnv.com
7. What specific meteorological data supports the consensus forecast of a 72-74°F high for Las Vegas on November 13, 2026?
| Forecast Temperature Probability | 73–74°F at 72% [1] |
|---|---|
| Corroborated Consensus | 73–74°F at 71% [2] |
| Nearest Alternative Predictions | 71–72°F at 13% and 75–76°F at 10% [1] |
Market predictions strongly favor a 73-74°F high for November 13, 2026. The documented consensus forecast for Las Vegas on this date indicated probabilistic market pricing of 73–74°F at 72% [1]. This consensus was further corroborated by a separate climate-market summary, showing 71% agreement [2]. The market's nearest alternative predictions for that date were 71–72°F at 13% and 75–76°F at 10%, indicating a focused and narrow temperature range for the primary consensus [1].
Direct meteorological data supporting this specific consensus forecast is unavailable. Specific meteorological data directly supporting the 73–74°F consensus forecast is not provided within the bound facts. The NWS Las Vegas November climate document, while offering extensive climatological context for the 1937–2026 period and 1991–2020 normals, does not explicitly state the November 13, 2026 forecast high [3].
Reviewed NWS documents do not contain relevant future or observed data. A retrieved NWS point forecast displayed an operational validity period of October 13–20, 2026, which is not relevant to the November 13 prediction-market date [4]. Similarly, an NWS observation page for North Las Vegas Airport, when reviewed, did not contain any November 13, 2026 observation in the displayed excerpt, meaning it cannot verify the day's eventual maximum temperature [5].
8. How might the forecasted Wind Advisory and the approaching storm system on November 13 cause the actual high temperature to deviate from model predictions?
| Principal Forecast Temperature | 73–74°F (71% probability) [1] |
|---|---|
| Alternative Forecast Temperature | 71–72°F (44% probability) [2] |
| Common Gusty Winds | 20–30 knots [3] |
Wind advisory and storm may lower temperatures below forecasts. The forecasted Wind Advisory and an approaching storm system on November 13 have the potential to cause the actual high temperature to deviate from model predictions, possibly pushing temperatures below the principal forecast of 73–74°F or the lower alternative of 71–72°F [4]. Substantial intraday repricing has been observed in prediction markets, with one snapshot listing Las Vegas at 73–74°F with a 71% probability, followed by a subsequent snapshot showing 71–72°F at 44% [1][2].
Gusty winds and cold air often cause below-normal temperatures. In comparable trough setups, below-normal temperatures frequently result from gusty north/northeast winds, typically 20–30 knots, combined with colder air aloft and the potential for precipitation as the system moves inland [3]. National Weather Service (NWS) aviation guidance for a Las Vegas-area trough indicates that stronger north/northwest winds, with gusts around 25 knots and occasional gusts near 30 knots, if they arrive late, can significantly alter both the magnitude and timing of the daily maximum temperature due to atmospheric mixing [5].
Wind advisories signal volatility, not definite temperature changes. A wind advisory should be viewed as an indicator of volatility rather than a deterministic signal for temperature [5][3]. While cooler advection and clouds generally favor a lower high temperature, the possibility of downslope compression or a delayed arrival of the system could preserve or even briefly raise temperatures [5][3].
Sources (5)
- 1Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2Prediction Markets Settling Today & This Week | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 4Highest temperature in Las Vegas on Nov 13, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
9. Are there any known historical discrepancies between the official settlement source (The Weather Company's KLAS report) and standard NWS temperature readings for Las Vegas?
| Las Vegas Event ID | KXHIGHTLV-26NOV13 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Event Settlement Date | Nov. 14, 2026 [1][2][3] |
| Market Leading Range | 71–74°F [1][2][3] |
No specific historical discrepancy is documented between official temperature reports. Research indicates that no specific historical discrepancy between The Weather Company's KLAS report and standard NWS Las Vegas temperature readings is documented [1][4]. This finding signifies an absence of evidence rather than definitive proof that such discrepancies have never occurred [1][4]. Differences between a standard NWS daily high and a market settlement index are possible without error due to varying observation sets, receipt cutoffs, aggregation rules, and rounding conventions [4].
A specific Las Vegas event has a future settlement date. The specific event under consideration is KXHIGHTLV-26NOV13, which has six potential outcomes and a settlement date of Nov. 14, 2026 [1][2][3]. The market's leading temperature range for this event was observed to be around 71–74°F [1][2][3]. Documentation specifies that weather-index values are rounded to 0.01 Fahrenheit and that degraded values remain settlement-eligible even if a member is absent, fallback-fed, or substituted by quality control [4].
10. How does the ~73°F forecast for November 13, 2026, compare to the historical temperature distribution for that date in Las Vegas, based on NOAA's 1991-2020 climate normals?
| Forecast Temperature (Nov 13, 2026) | 73°F (Las Vegas) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| November Monthly Normal Average Maximum | 67.1°F (Las Vegas) [1][2][3] |
| Difference from Monthly Normal | approximately 6°F warmer [1][2][3] |
The 73°F forecast is slightly warmer than Las Vegas' November average. The forecast for November 13, 2026, in Las Vegas is 73°F, which is approximately 6°F warmer than the official November monthly normal average maximum of 67.1°F [1][2][3]. Based on NOAA's 1991-2020 climate normals, this temperature is considered historically ordinary-to-warm. It does not represent an exceptional or record-like outcome for November, especially given the all-time November record high of 87°F [1].
Exact historical percentile for November 13 is unavailable for specific comparison. The National Weather Service Las Vegas bases its climate materials on NOAA/NCEI 1991-2020 normals, which establish the official monthly normal average maximum for November at 67.1°F [1][2][3]. Although a dedicated Las Vegas November climate document exists for the 1937-2026 period of record, the provided research does not supply the precise November 13 normal-high or a complete year-by-year distribution. Therefore, an exact historical percentile for that specific date cannot be determined [1][2][3]. For the November 13, 2026, prediction market, the most favored temperature range was 73°-74°F, holding 72% of the market [4].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Nov. 13 consensus forecast for Las Vegas’s maximum temperature ranged tightly between 73–74°F; the NWS Las Vegas’s Nov. 12 point forecast matrix gave 74°F, and its later tabular state forecast listed 56/73°F, consistent with KTNV’s 74°F forecast [1][2][3]. Conditions for Nov. 13 were partly cloudy and windy, with southwest winds around 15–20 mph and gusts near 30 mph [1][2][3]. A low-pressure system presented a slight risk of showers late Friday or early Saturday [1][2][3]. Clouds and earlier precipitation are bearish for the high, while delayed clouds or showers and stronger daytime mixing are relatively bullish [1][2][3].
Forecasts exhibited drift approaching the date; the Las Vegas Sun reported the NWS expected above-normal temperatures during the workweek, but its Nov. 9 outlook projected Friday near 72°F, indicating a shift toward the low-to-mid 70s [4]. The observed settlement number for daily temperature markets can diverge from city forecasts due to specific station references and defined official observation/resolution procedures [5][6]. Traders should verify if the contract references Las Vegas/McCarran or another station and if it utilizes NWS or vendor-quality-controlled data [5][6].
The most important same-day signals are official station observations and subsequent forecast updates [1][2][3][6]. A reading of 74°F or higher would support an upper bracket; failure to reach 73°F, or earlier cloud and rain effects, would support a lower bracket [1][2][3][6]. These scenarios are directional and do not represent a guaranteed market edge [1][2][3][6]. No reliable Las Vegas-specific Nov. 13 prediction-market price or contract rule was identified in the retrieved sources, making a precise bullish/bearish trade recommendation or implied probability unsupported [7][8][9].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 20, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (9)
- 1Windy with More Clouds on Fridayktnv.com
- 2https://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/fpus01/KVEFatmos.albany.edu
- 3National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 4Above-average temperatures expected this week in Las Vegas; chance of rain creeps into weekend forecastlasvegassun.com
- 5Kalshi Weather Markets Beat NOAA's Forecast in 24 of 24 Cities — We Retired Our Modelpredictionmarketspicks.com
- 6Kalshi Weather Markets: Temperature, Snow and Hurricanesnextpredict.io
- 7Global Temperature Markets 2026 | Qwidgetsqwidgets.com
- 8NYC High Temperature on November 13: 46-47°F Market | Lines.comlines.com
- 9Weather Prediction Markets · Climate | Lumina Marketsluminamarkets.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHTLV-26NOV11-T81: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTLV-26NOV11-T74: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTLV-26NOV11-B80.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTLV-26NOV11-B78.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTLV-26NOV11-B76.5: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
