Short Answer

Austin's highest temperature on November 13, 2026, is a toss-up to reach 81° to 82°F, priced at 51% by the market despite professional forecasts for 77-78°F from NWS and The Weather Channel; the model estimates this outcome at a lower 32.8%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The primary driver for market movement was the release of weather forecasts on November 12. A 22.0 percentage point spike in contracts for an "81° to 82°" outcome was catalyzed by an observed high of 78°F that day, which was 5° above normal. This was followed by a National Weather Service forecast that further influenced trading.

A subsequent 19.0 percentage point spike in the same contract on November 13 lacks a clear driver. Contemporaneous reports did not identify a specific weather event or social media catalyst corresponding to the move. Current professional forecasts for the resolution date cluster below this range, with the NWS calling for a high of 77°F and The Weather Channel predicting 78°F. Other local outlets project highs in the mid-to-upper 70s.

81-82°F is currently the market favorite, reflecting broader prediction market trends.
79-80°F appears favored by market sentiment, bordering The Weather Channel's 78°F settlement forecast.
77-78°F aligns with professional forecasts, including Kalshi's 78°F settlement source.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
83° or above	8.0%	4.9%	The Weather Channel forecasts 78°F, making temperatures significantly above 82°F highly unlikely.
81° to 82°	51.0%	32.8%	The Weather Channel and NWS forecast 77-78°F, significantly below this temperature range.
79° to 80°	43.0%	30.9%	Strong market sentiment in Kalshi and Gemini snapshots frequently favors this temperature range.
77° to 78°	6.0%	24.7%	NWS forecasts 77°F and The Weather Channel forecasts 78°F, aligning directly with this range.
75° to 76°	4.0%	5.8%	KXAN reports highs returning to the mid-to-upper 70s, making minor deviations possible.

Current Context

Weather forecasts project Friday highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. The NWS Austin/San Antonio forecast issued 12:01 AM CST on November 13, 2026, calls for a high of 77°F and a low of 49°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) ^[1]. The Weather Channel predicts 78°F for the high and 50°F for the low, with mainly sunny conditions and a 3% chance of rain for Friday ^[2]. KXAN reports Friday highs returning to the mid-to-upper 70s with sunny skies ^[3]. Dry, above-normal temperatures are expected for Friday, though rain chances increase to 70% by Saturday and Sunday ^[1]. A cold front is anticipated to move through Central Texas by Sunday afternoon, bringing highs into the 50s through Sunday and early next week ^[3]^[4]. The Weather Prediction Center has placed parts of Central and Southeast Texas under a low-end Level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday and Sunday ^[4]. Early morning readings at McDonald Observatory on November 13, 2026, showed approximately 48–49°F, consistent with forecast lows ^[5].

Prediction markets indicate a high temperature range of 79–81°F. Polymarket's 11-outcome ladder shows 80–81°F as the leading range at 41.5%, a 12-point increase in 24 hours, after holding near 50% since November 11 ^[6]. The 82–83°F range follows at 28.5%, with 78–79°F at 23.0% ^[6]. Gemini's market, as of 7:27 AM UTC on November 13, 2026, prices 79–80°F at 44.1%, ahead of 81–82°F at 38.6% and 77–78°F at 11.4% ^[7]. A combined board updated at 1:18 AM CST on November 13, 2026, shows Polymarket's favorite range at 80–81°F (55%) and Kalshi's at 79–80°F (44%) ^[8].

Market resolution protocols vary, using different official Austin-Bergstrom data. Polymarket's market resolves based on the first routine KAUS METAR report for the following date, or by 11:59 PM ET the day after ^[6]^[9]. Gemini's market resolves on the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for Austin-Bergstrom, with resolution scheduled for November 14, 2026 ^[7]. Kalshi's market ceases trading at 1:00 AM CT after the observation day and settles at 2:00 PM CT ^[8]. All markets rely on data from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS, approximately 148 meters elevation), though Polymarket specifies METAR remarks and Kalshi uses the CLIAUS NWS climate summary for final resolution ^[8]^[9].

Sources (9)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 November 13, 2026: 19.0pp spike

Price increased from 24.0% to 43.0%

Outcome: 81° to 82°

What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for the 19.0 percentage point price spike for the "81° to 82°" outcome. Contemporaneous reporting from November 13, 2026, explicitly stated it "did not document a social-media catalyst or a 19.0-percentage-point weather-driven event" ^[1]^[2]. Furthermore, official NWS forecasts and other independent models projected Austin's high temperature to be around 75-77°F, which is lower than the spiked range ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. Based on the available information, social media activity appears to have been irrelevant to this price movement.

📈 November 12, 2026: 22.0pp spike

Price increased from 6.0% to 28.0%

Outcome: 81° to 82°

What happened: The primary driver of the 22.0 percentage point spike for the "81° to 82°" outcome was the release of traditional weather data and forecasts ^[7]. This movement was catalyzed by Austin's observed warm high of 78°F on November 12, 2026—5° above normal—combined with a subsequent NWS forecast on November 13, 2026, predicting similar high temperatures for that day, around 77°F ^[7]^[8]^[3]^[9]. This confluence of data suggested a second consecutive day of well-above-normal temperatures, making the higher outcome range more plausible ^[7]. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity was identified in the available information.

Sources (9)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For each temperature range market, a "YES" resolution is triggered if the highest temperature recorded in Austin on November 13, 2026, falls within the specified range, otherwise "NO" resolves. Payouts for the market occur by November 14, 2026. The Exchange, at its sole discretion, may delay expiration if a material error is found in the initial data publication, waiting for a revision or until the Expiration Date, or resolve markets to the last fair price if no data is available.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
81° to 82°	$0.50	$0.53	51%
79° to 80°	$0.43	$0.58	43%
83° or above	$0.06	$0.96	8%
77° to 78°	$0.06	$0.95	6%
75° to 76°	$0.04	$0.97	4%
74° or below	$0.01	$1.00	1%

Market Discussion

Weather forecasts for November 13, 2026, indicate a high temperature in Austin of approximately 77-78°F, with the NWS Austin/San Antonio forecasting 77°F at both Austin Camp Mabry and Austin-Bergstrom ^[1]. However, prediction markets appear to lean warmer, with leading brackets across multiple platforms showing probabilities for high temperatures ranging from 79°F to 83°F ^[2]. The specific settlement methodology for the Austin-Bergstrom station also varies by market venue ^[3].

Sources (3)

5. Trust Index

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score74Good

Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score29Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score65Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data

6. How do professional forecasts from the NWS and The Weather Channel differ from the probabilities implied by Polymarket and Kalshi for Austin's Nov 13 high?

NWS Point Forecast (Nov 13, 2026)	78°F ^[1]
Kalshi Market Favorite	79°–80°F at 57% ^[2]
Polymarket Market Favorite	80–81°F at 54% ^[3]

Official weather forecasts for Austin's high temperature diverge from market predictions. The National Weather Service (NWS) projects a high of 78°F for Austin on November 13, 2026, under sunny conditions ^[1]. This NWS point forecast sits at the lower end compared to probabilities implied by prediction markets. Both Kalshi and Polymarket suggest a higher expected high, generally ranging from 79.5°F to 80.5°F, with Polymarket indicating the warmest probabilities ^[1].

Kalshi's prediction market favors a temperature range of 79°–80°F. In its market titled 'Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 13, 2026?', the 79°–80°F outcome is priced as the favorite at 57%, while 77°–78°F holds 27% ^[2]. Kalshi's market will resolve based on The Weather Company's daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS, identifying 'The Weather Channel' as its resolution source ^[4].

Polymarket suggests an even warmer high, anticipating 80–81°F. Its comparable market, 'Highest temperature in Austin on November 13?', prices the 80–81°F outcome at 54% as its most probable result, suggesting it leans approximately 1–2°F warmer than Kalshi's predictions ^[3]. Polymarket's market is set to resolve on the NWS Daily Climatological Report for Austin-Bergstrom, with both prediction markets settling on November 14, 2026 ^[3].

Sources (4)

7. What is the projected timing of the incoming cold front, and how could an earlier-than-expected arrival impact Austin's high temperature on November 13?

Strongest Market Expectation 1	79–80°F (57%) ^[1]
Strongest Market Expectation 2	79–80°F (44.1%) ^[2]
Measurement Window	November 13 local climate day, 00:00–24:00 CST (Austin-Bergstrom) ^[3]

The projected high temperature for Austin on November 13 is significantly influenced by the timing of an incoming cold front. An earlier arrival of this front would introduce northerly flow and cooler air sooner, making lower high temperatures in the upper 70s, or even mid-70s if it arrives substantially early, more plausible ^[2]^[1]^[4]^[5]. Conversely, a later passage of the cold front would allow for more daytime warming, thereby supporting high temperatures around 79–80°F ^[2]^[1]^[4]^[5].

Market predictions for November 13 high temperatures show considerable variation. One market snapshot indicated a range of 79–80°F at 57%, with 77–78°F at 27% and 81–82°F at 12% ^[1]. A separate snapshot highlighted meaningful uncertainty and weak market quality, with 79–80°F at 44.1% and 81–82°F at 38.6% ^[2]. The relevant measurement window for this temperature is the November 13 local climate day at Austin-Bergstrom, which spans approximately 00:00–24:00 CST ^[3].

Sources (5)

8. What does historical data from Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS) for mid-November indicate about the probability of temperatures exceeding 78°F?

Record High Nov 13 (KAUS)	90°F ^[1]
Normal High Nov 13 (KAUS)	72°F (1991–2020 normal period) ^[1]
78°F vs Normal High Nov 13	6°F above normal ^[1]

Precise probability of temperatures exceeding 78°F cannot be determined. The available historical data from Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS) for mid-November does not support a precise empirical exceedance frequency for temperatures exceeding 78°F ^[1]. While a record high of 90°F was recorded on November 13, confirming that substantially warm days can occur in mid-November, this single historical event is insufficient to establish the frequency of such occurrences ^[1].

Temperatures exceeding 78°F are above the mid-November normal. For the 1991–2020 normal period at KAUS, the normal high temperature for November 13 is 72°F, indicating that 78°F is 6°F above this average ^[1]. Normal highs for surrounding dates are 73°F for November 11–12 and 71°F for November 14–15 ^[1]. However, without access to the full year-by-year distribution of daily observations, a precise empirical frequency for temperatures exceeding 78°F cannot be determined ^[1].

Sources (1)

1IEM:: Tabular CLI Report Datamesonet.agron.iastate.edu

9. How do the resolution mechanics of Kalshi (NWS report) and Polymarket (METAR) differ, and what is the historical variance between these two sources for Austin's daily high?

Kalshi Data Source	NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for Austin-Bergstrom ^[1]^[2]
Polymarket Data Source	raw KAUS METAR observations, Aviation Weather Center API ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]
Historical Variance Data	Not available from provided evidence ^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[3]

Kalshi and Polymarket use different data sources for temperature resolution. These platforms utilize distinct data sources to resolve highest temperature events in Austin, specifically for November 13, 2026. Kalshi relies on the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for Austin-Bergstrom, with the first published applicable report determining the expiration value as the NWS maximum for that day ^[1]^[2]. In contrast, Polymarket resolves from raw KAUS METAR observations, which is indicated by its use of an Aviation Weather Center API ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6].

Historical variance between sources cannot be determined from available data. While market snapshots for November 13, 2026, showed Kalshi's leading range at 79°-80° and Polymarket's leading range at 80°-81°, these figures represent market prices and are not realized temperatures or direct evidence of source variance ^[1]^[14]^[15]^[2]. The supplied results do not contain matched daily observations from both NWS and METAR for Austin ^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[3]. Therefore, the historical variance between these two sources cannot be numerically estimated or verified from the evidence provided ^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[3].

Sources (15)

10. What do model ensembles from the Climate Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center suggest about cloud cover that could cause a deviation from the consensus forecast?

Market High Temperature Forecast	79–80°F ^[1]^[2]
NWS High Temperature Forecast (Updated)	About 78°F ^[3]^[4]^[5]
Market Deviation with Clouds/Fog	77–78°F ^[2]^[1]

Ensemble guidance showed no significant cloud cover threat for November 13. Specific cloud ensemble products from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and Weather Prediction Center (WPC) for November 13 were not available in the search results, which limited insights into potential cloud cover deviations ^[2]. However, broader ensemble guidance did not indicate a significant cloud-cover threat against the prevailing sunny consensus ^[2]. Regional extended-range guidance for North/Central Texas also supported a generally warm and dry November pattern, without providing evidence of a specific cloud shield for November 13 ^[6].

National Weather Service forecasts consistently predicted clear, sunny conditions. National Weather Service forecasts for Friday, November 13, consistently projected sunny or clear conditions ^[3]^[4]^[5]. Initial high temperature forecasts of approximately 72°F were later revised to about 78°F, indicating some forecast uncertainty but no expectation of a cloudy day ^[3]^[4]^[5]. The market snapshot anticipated a high temperature of 79–80°F ^[1]^[2]. In the event of unexpected persistent clouds or fog, the most probable market deviation would be a lower high temperature, approximately 77–78°F, rather than the consensus 79–80°F ^[2]^[1].

Sources (6)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Market probability on the Kalshi-linked board currently shows Austin reaching a high of 79–80°F at 57% on November 13, 2026 ^[1]^[2]. The next highest probabilities are 77–78°F at 27% and 81–82°F at 12% ^[1]^[2]. Cross-platform data generally aligns, with CoinRithm reporting 79–80°F at 44.1% and 81–82°F at 38.6%, while TexasPredictions shows 80–81°F at 55% ^[2]^[3]. While differing brackets and venues lead to some instability in precise probability, a common signal near 80°F is evident ^[2]^[3]. This forecast implies a substantially warmer-than-normal day, given Austin's normal November 13 high of approximately 70–72°F ^[4]^[5].

The relevant settlement location for these contracts is Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, specifically station KAUS/CLIAUS ^[2]^[5]^[6]. Readings from Camp Mabry or downtown may not settle the contract ^[2]^[5]^[6]. The final realized high temperature cannot be known from pre-settlement research ^[1]^[7]. The market estimate is not an official observation and may change intraday ^[1]^[7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Strike Date: November 14, 2026
Expiration: November 20, 2026
Closes: November 14, 2026

Sources (7)

12. Keep Exploring

More Daily temperature markets See more daily temperature setups in the same theme. Browse all Climate and Weather markets Keep exploring adjacent climate and weather markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

KXHIGHAUS-26NOV11-T82: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
KXHIGHAUS-26NOV11-T75: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
KXHIGHAUS-26NOV11-B81.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
KXHIGHAUS-26NOV11-B79.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
KXHIGHAUS-26NOV11-B77.5: NO (Nov 12, 2026)

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 13, 2026?

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

📈 November 13, 2026: 19.0pp spike

📈 November 12, 2026: 22.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. How do professional forecasts from the NWS and The Weather Channel differ from the probabilities implied by Polymarket and Kalshi for Austin's Nov 13 high?

7. What is the projected timing of the incoming cold front, and how could an earlier-than-expected arrival impact Austin's high temperature on November 13?

8. What does historical data from Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS) for mid-November indicate about the probability of temperatures exceeding 78°F?

9. How do the resolution mechanics of Kalshi (NWS report) and Polymarket (METAR) differ, and what is the historical variance between these two sources for Austin's daily high?

10. What do model ensembles from the Climate Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center suggest about cloud cover that could cause a deviation from the consensus forecast?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

📈 November 13, 2026: 19.0pp spike

📈 November 12, 2026: 22.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company